if you lock in a contrary position with another book you guarantee yourself losing the vig - 4.55% on the $ amount of the 2 bets combined
unless you get a better line on one side of the bets and there's no guarantee that you can do that -
but yes, you are correct about the risk - there is still risk - hopefully the high # of games in the NFL regular season - 272 - and the fact that the bettor would be betting every game - and the fact that he has a good bet - would cause the risk to lessen considerably
and if the bettor does this over 5 years - that's over 1,300 games
I'm not a mathlete - but I would estimate the risk, even for just 1 year - to be fairly small and manageable
if the player wants to reduce his risk further - looking back at that link - all away underdogs ats had a positive 2.57% r.o.i. - betting just these instead of all way ats would probably reduce the no. of total bets by about one third
betting fewer games would likely reduce the value of promos and bonuses he gets unless he bet a larger amount because of the higher r.o.i.
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