Sports picks

[Sharky]

wow...that was cruel to FSU....beat everyone on your schedule...including SEC LSU and @Floridia...win power 5 championship, too....having said that....agree w/ committee....best 4 teams at the moment.....should make for a great tourney!!!!!

[drunk]

wow...that was cruel to FSU....beat everyone on your schedule...including SEC LSU and @Floridia...win power 5 championship, too....having said that....agree w/ committee....best 4 teams at the moment.....should make for a great tourney!!!!!

yes -
but many are saying the decision was made because FSU lost its star quarterback Jordan Travis to an injury last month
if that is true - was that appropriate_____? - to make a decision based on a player being injured________?
I don't think so
I think the decision should have been made solely on the record of the teams

a really good article (imo) about it at the link


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...ed-cfp-unfair/

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[drunk]

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I'm back posting some picks with a new strategy - that is unless I embarrass myself with too many losses

right now - with all the competition from the books now that it is legal it's no longer necessary to be a winner on your bets to be profitable

the books are offering all kinds of bonuses and free play - there is a guy on another site who I trust is truthful who loses quite a bit but more than he wins but makes up for it and actually is ahead because of all the free stuff

he plays the books against each other masterfully

you can quite often bet one side where a book is offering a boost and bet the other side with another book and guarantee yourself a win

it helps if your picks can come at least close to breaking even - and this won't work for those betting big - only for those betting small or medium size - they won't award bonuses or free play for guys betting huge that are commensurate with the size of the bets



today's pick:


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one bet - one unit divided as such - NHL


60% Tampa Bay Lightning over Blue Jackets - -330_____________smallish loss of about 10% of total bet if win but fail to cover


40% Lightning -1.5 Puck Line - 128 (fanduel)___________the bet as a whole will return slightly less than 1/2 if they cover


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[drunk]

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too late to edit -


the above math is incorrect - sorry about that


if the Lightning win but fail to cover the loss will be slightly over 20% of the total bet amount - sorry about that


the calculation if they do cover is correct




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[drunk]

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today Yankees - -220 over Marlins

edited - didn't like original bet the way it was - changed to just money line - no spread bet


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[drunk]

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Astros/Royals over 8.5 - 115


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[drunk]

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NHL - one pick divided as such:

Edmonton tonight over Arizona - 290________80% of bet for a tiny win if they win but fail to cover

Edmonton on the Puck Line -1.5 -112 with the other 20% of the bet__________if they cover the win is about 45% of the total amount bet

Edmonton still has a shot at catching Vancouver for the top spot in the Pacific Division

this will be Arizona's 4th game in a row on the road - that has to be tough


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[drunk]

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MLS soccer


NY Red Bulls/Chicago Fire over 2.5 goals_____________-120


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[drunk]

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add one more pick for today -


Marco Gonzalez - Pirates Pitcher - giving up under 3.5 earned runs to Phillies _____-165_________DraftKings_______see link




https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...=pitcher-props


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[drunk]

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have been kind of mediocre or a little worse than mediocre with my picks

gonna try and improve by focusing on proposition bets where I think there is a better chance of finding mispricings

today Nets at 6ers - Tobias Harris over 13.5 points -105 - (draftkings)

he's averaging 17 for the year - he's been over that total in the last 10 games and over 21-5 in the last 26 games

the last time the 6ers played the Nets Harris had 18


try one more prop for today

Pistons vs. Spurs - Jalen Duren over 5.5 rebounds_____________-125

he's gone over that total 30-4 in his last 34 games


Jalen Duren didn't play - any bets on him don't count

the pick on Harris won




https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...=player-points


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[drunk]

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today - Twins at Orioles -


Manuel Margot under 1.5 hits __________-195


he's gone under that total 11 of 12 times this season and 18 of his last 22 at bats last season


the Orioles starting pitcher is mediocre - the Orioles bullpen is very tough




https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...bcategory=hits


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[drunk]

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prop for today - NBA - Lakers/Pelicans -


Rui Hachimura over 4.5 rebounds -135


he's been over that total in his last 6 games and 8 out of his last 10 games




https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...egory=rebounds


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[DSchles]

You should post your results if you're going to continue to post picks. Before you post a new pick, state what happened yesterday.

Don