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didn't do well with my picks this past weekend - I'm 10-9 now posting here
am changing my strategy with NCAA picks and will only pick the o/u
most games are on Saturday but there's a game tonight
I like Coastal Carolina/Appalachia State__________over 61
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Please don't feed the trolls
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I'm 10-10 now this season - that's not gonna impress anybody - need to do better
some picks for this weekend, NCAA & NFL
Navy/Charlotte______ under 43.5
Akron/CMU___________________ under 43.5
Pitt/Louisville_______over 44.5
Air Force/Wyoming_______________over 42.5
Ohio/Northern Illinois________________________over 45
SJSU/UNM____________under 57.5
Seahawks +2.5
Patriots +2.5
Commanders +2.5______________glta
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Please don't feed the trolls
Here are just my football bets from Draftkings for this year: 15 Wins - 13 Losses
For tomorrow taking Jaguars Money Line at 100.
Email: [email protected]
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I'm 16-16 posting football this season___________really spectacular______________(-:\
Week 7 picks
Bills -8.5 over Patriots
Bucs - 2.5 over Falcons
Raiders -2.5 over Bears
Rams - 3 over Steelers
Lions +3 over Ravens
Dolphins +2.5 over Eagles___________________________glta
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Please don't feed the trolls
^ Damn impressive. A handicapping method that can pick the loser is just as valuable as one that can pick the winner.Originally Posted by drunk
I'm a bit confused by the Packer vs Vikings line this week. After Vikings Monday night performance the line barely budged.
Last edited by UncleChoo; 10-25-2023 at 10:03 AM.
thank you - I'm 16-22_________I no longer believe my handicapping picks have any value - at one time I did - I will no longer post them
BUT
I do believe this has value - Mike Shackleford aka Wizard of odds, a gambling expert tracked over 2,000 games and found that the away underdog won 53.75% for an r.o.i. of 2.57% - see link
I tweaked that believing low spread away dogs given 4 points or less would do better - I have tracked over 350 games (no handicapping) and have them winning at 57.6% for an r.o.i. of about 10% - they were profitable in all 4 seasons that I tracked
it makes perfect sense that the betting public overvalues the home advantage
they are currently 17-13 for this season
I'm not going to post them - anybody who wants to can scope them out at covers.com
I will post the final tally after the season is over
other very interesting findings from Mike - he tracked over 3,000 bets and found that all away won 53.10% for a small r.o.i. of 1.34%
he tracked over 3,000 games of all underdogs and found that they win 52.08% for a negative r.o.i. of only -0.57%
this can be very useful to those who just wanna milk the books for promos and bonuses
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
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Last edited by drunk; 10-26-2023 at 03:16 AM.
Please don't feed the trolls
Here are a couple of questions to anyone with experience with sports betting. What is a good place to start for a complete novice like myself to learn about it? Does it require a thorough knowledge about these sporting events and teams, or is it mathematical like counting cards? It seems like it could be quite complicated. Thanks for any advice!
Last edited by Northbend; 11-01-2023 at 06:35 AM.
Yes, in short, it is a mathematical grind.
Here is a good book that will give you a little insight about how the markets works along with pricing and the concept of the hold.
Book is geared towards beginners, but it a good place to start.
https://www.amazon.com/Logic-Sports-.../dp/1096805723
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