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Thread: CVCX Hole Carding Simulation - Negative Expectation?

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  1. 08-15-2020, 05:05 PM #1
    PinkChip
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    CVCX Hole Carding Simulation - Negative Expectation?

    I have run a hole card simulation (rather than card counting simulation) using CVCX and the QFit Hole Carding strategy.
    Surprisingly, the results show a negative EV of about minus 8 percent (regardless of double deck or six decks), whereas I expected about 5 to 10 percent positive expectation (provided that every dealer's hole card is perfectly readable):

    HoleCardingQFitStrategy01AttachStrategy.jpg
    HoleCardingQFitStrategy02SimSetupPageOne.jpg
    HoleCardingQFitStrategy03SimSetupPageTwo.jpg
    HoleCardingQFitStrategy04SimResultsNegativeExpectation.jpg

    What went wrong here? (I know that the main purpose of CVCX is card counting simulation, and that flat-betting normally has a negative EV when using conventional Basic Strategy, but not minus 8 percent).
    Last edited by PinkChip; 08-15-2020 at 05:18 PM.
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