New Member / Long Time Lurker. Just Incurred A Devastating Loss (How To Cope With It)

[J21]

Hi everyone

First off let me say that I have been reading this board and the old board for years already, I just have never registered or posted.

A little background on my blackjack career: Started off 5 years ago as casual gambler who would just play for fun. It was not until 2 years ago that I learned strategies and card counting that I started to take it seriously and as a way to (hopefully) make money on the side. Things were going well for months. I was playing low stakes ($10 tables) and spreading my bets and going to 2 or even 3 hands when the count was good. In an average session, and probably about 75% of my sessions I would profit between $200 to $300 and leave. Problem is a bad session for me was a $1,000 loss, which is everything I would bring to the casino with me. That loss would wipe out about 5 sessions so it was becoming non-profitable and a waste of time to go to the casinos. A year ago I became a green chipper. Winning sessions were around $500 but losing sessions still $1,000 and more frequent than they were with $10 stakes. I knew counting was working as I was winning more than losing but the EV was not so great.

Six months ago I figured what the hell, I have a large enough bankroll to dedicate to gambling, I will play $50 and $100 tables to take advantage of better rules and less ploppys. I was carrying $25,000 on me every time I went into the casino but never had to pull out more than $3K of my own money. I was treated well with comps and was laughing all the way to the bank that those suckers never considered me a counter.

About 5 weeks ago my 'luck' started to change. I constantly found myself chasing losses every session. I would fall down $3 to $5K and spend 8 hours getting it back. But I always got it back. Max bets at the right count and doubling on every 11 saved my ass several times. Then the inevitable happened. I was playing Monday night and went down $3K. It took me 6 hours to get it back to only a $150 loss, but I was naive and wanted to keep playing and leave with a profit. I was playing a $50 table with another player and we both were up $1,500 on the shoe and then the pit boss had the dealer cut the shoe just as it was at its most penetrable and highest count. I should of walked away like the other AP but I stayed. The next 2 shoes will forever haunt me. Shoe was terrible to start with. Dealer was winning every hand and would pull a 4 or 5 card 20 or 21 on every 3-6 he had. I believe I lost something like 28 out of 30 bets and was down $3K again. The count though was +22 at the time and I pulled out $5K more. Went to 2 hands at $2,500 each. Got 2 20s. Dealer had a 4, then pulled over A 10 6 for 21. $5K more, 2 Blackjacks. Im celebrating in my mind. Dealer flips his jack over and backdoor Blackjacks me. Next hand 2 20s, dealer Blackjack. I pull the rest of my cash out I think it was $12K. Win some hands playing purple and get it back up to $20K with the count again at +20. I bet table max $5,000 and get Blackjack. You guessed it. Got fu*king backdoored again! 2 hands at $5K. I get dealt stiffs 12 and 16 against a 4. He flips over 10 and 4 for 18. Another 2 hands at $5,000 each. Dealt 12 and 10 against 7. Im looking like a genius when I pull a 9 on the 10 and a 7 on the 12. Dealer flips over 5 (Im thinking yes! I took the *******s 9) then a 9 for 21. The reality hit me. I was taken for my full $25K in less than half an hour.

The ride home was terrible. I could not sleep for 3 nights. What the hell did I just do ??? I played correctly, I over bet but if there was ever a time to over bet It was the right time and the right count. I started to dwell on the fact that even if the count favors the player, it favors the dealer just as well. Is there even a true edge to begin with or is it all complete bull****. Anyways, the money is lost but I now have another dilemma: Quit for good or begin the chase with smaller and controlled bets and hope to win it back.

Questions ? Comments ? I would appreciate them. How about someone else share their bad beat story to lighten my mood

[mofungoo]

You were gambling, took a shot and lost. You pretty much did everything wrong. In the future:

1) Always bet in proportion to your bankroll.
2) Never chase losses.
3) Play short sessions.
4) Expect the unexpected.

[paymypush]

Yeah, you were over betting. Since you were able to bet table max unmolested, I'm guessing the heat was for the other guy. Don't play with other APs.

[Baberuth]

Mofungoo right on. There will be others here to add coaching for you. From what I read you will surely play again so be coachable and you will be fine. The alternative is more pain and sleepless nights. Since you are going to play more, start enjoying the comps your recent casino will offer, but know understand your mistakes and be disciplined.

You can do it.
Baberuth

[BJmath]

You were gambling, took a shot and lost. You pretty much did everything wrong. In the future:

1) Always bet in proportion to your bankroll.
2) Never chase losses.
3) Play short sessions.
4) Expect the unexpected.

Is it fair to conclude that, given the minimal mathematical edge a player can achieve by counting alone (in a common way), it is not very lucrative at all playing BJ, especially at low stakes? As a result, should BJ really be treated as a recreational (not money making) game if one is only doing counting?

[Ouchez]

J21,

Just think if it had gone your way?? Hurah!! you would be braggin today how you doubled your bank.

Remember ROR my friend.

You lacked discipline and went on tilt when you should have practiced humility and walked with a small loss, Psychologically you were fuc#ed and that is worse than any playing mistakes.

You also became greedy, if you make 10% on investment in a couple hours of play that is better than any CD return that you will make in 2 years, keep that in mind as a reality check.

Yes, the game goes like that, even for a STinger, you don't know what will happen as you share with the dealer and any other player.

I am glad you mentioned 3 nights loss of sleep, because that is a sign that you know you screwed up and maybe you have learned a valuable, but very, very, expensive lesson. I have also lost sleep, over errors I have made in play, whether I have won that session or not, I WILL BEAT MYSELF UP, AND THAT IS A GOOD WAY TO LEARN AND REMEMBER.

You best take some time off.

Best,
Ouchez

[Jet]

J21,

Do you have CVCX? If you do, unless you were hole carding, your top bet at MAX should have been $400. You might have the card counting skills but your bankroll management and discipline were extremely poor.


Just some things to think about,


Jet

[22 Dreams]

Yeah, CVCX is a must. I just played around with it and even at full Kelly and favorable rules, you'd probably need a BR of about 350-400K to play 2 x 5K for a max bet.

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.

[RS]

If you can add more money to your BR, then that's good because it lowers your ROR, not increase the stakes. With $25k, probably shouldn't have been playing $50 mins....that's 500 min bets.

May I ask what your ROR was for the game you were playing (if you know) ?

[Black Yak]

Ouch! Sorry to hear about your nightmare session - it was hard to read all the losing hands and dealer 21s as it started reminding me of the most painful sessions and bad cards I've had!

I was carrying $25,000 on me every time I went into the casino but never had to pull out more than $3K of my own money. I was treated well with comps and was laughing all the way to the bank that those suckers never considered me a counter.

To carry many times more than you need for your betting level just seems unnecessary and like a recipe for disaster. Is the added security risk of schlepping that sort of cash around really worth a few comps? I used to just carry a float worked out according to my bankroll and accepted level of risk. After I came very near to wiping out and not having enough to cover some doubles and splits I now carry 1/3 extra float and keep this separated. This is the emergency money just to be used for that situation, if I need to keep playing through a count and don't have funds to make doubles etc.

I can totally relate to your description of being happy to leave with a small to medium win, and wanting to fight a loss for longer than is comfortable. This is some stuff that's helped me. Sorry if you've read this a million times before.... If you think of it as just all one long session made up of individual shoes it becomes clearer that it doesn't make any difference to your bankroll whether you play the next shoe now in the club where you are, or carry on tomorrow once you've had a good sleep and are feeling clear headed. The only difference is more mistakes if you're tired. I record results each session so it's really easy to start to get hung up on putting a positive result down each time, rather than accepting the ups and downs of any given week as inconsequential parts of the overall upward journey.

About 5 weeks ago my 'luck' started to change. I constantly found myself chasing losses every session. I would fall down $3 to $5K and spend 8 hours getting it back. But I always got it back.

If I played for 8 hours like you say I can only imagine the kind of insanity I would lapse into! I play with a couple of friends and we have put some time limits in place that seem to be helpful. Unless there is a big win early on or heat we play for at least an hour. This is to stop players who are scared of negative results scurrying out after small wins and showing that pattern that Tthree mentioned of win win win win win win LOSS. We also have an upper limit of how long we are allowed to play for any one session. Of course we are never going to walk away from a count, but having a couple of hours limit stops the loss chasing tilts that you have described.

Great you stopped lurking and shared this story which I'm sure will be a helpful to a few of us.

[stopgambling]

Way over betting.!!!!! You will lose period,even if you played perfectly with halves and perfect insurance count n sidecount 7,8, and 9s . You need to learn the whole curriculum of Card counting not just some half baked quick crash course. Read the free book here and make sure you understand all there is to know as a counter before playing at a stake that you care about.Buy CVBJ .Read the blk jack life by nathaniel tilton .and pro bj by standford wong if using hi lo . read arnold synders books . carl bryson , ( blk jack for blood) and many other good books that people would recommend . you must know the risk management involve. Excuse me for my CAVEMAN language and grammar . i am not trying to be rude .I just want you to know how important it is to know all of the above . You need a min. of 100 max bets to play . Thats means when you bet $2500 x 2 ,you were 10x over the limit. 25k bankroll should not have a max bets more than $250 at a 1.5% advantage. You also need to know if you r playing a winning game . A game is countable doesnt mean it is beatable.

[ZenKinG]

I started to dwell on the fact that even if the count favors the player, it favors the dealer just as well. Is there even a true edge to begin with or is it all complete bull****.

This line right here leads me to believe you are not ready to play, especially since you dont even know anything about ROR and standard deviation.. You think counting makes you favorite to win the next hand? The advantage of counting comes from blackjacks, doubling, and splitting over the LONG RUN, NOT winning more hands then the dealer, which is why you are confused if counting also favors the dealer. So you dont understand the essence of counting and risk/bankroll parameters.. I suggest buying CVCX, if you ever intend to become serious, and read Blackjack Attack 3rd Edition.. Stick it out, study up, and readjust your mistakes and analyze your play, you will be fine.. And penetration is everything and you getting half shoed was probably a big reason why you go hammered and lost 25k since the pen was probably at best 60%