Edge on these rules

[Nitram]

Hi,

A location has a blackjack 8 deck, H17, DAS game.

It doesn't have surrender, or RSA.


CBJN rates it as -0.66 off the top

CVCX shows I can raise at true 1

Page 35 of Professional Blackjack rates the game as -0.63
((-0.57 + (-0.20) + (0.14)) = -0.63


How would you rate this game and at when would the player have the advantage?

Thank you

[bigplayer]

Player has a small edge starting +1 true High Low. This is not a game worth playing unless you are either very strictly wonging , using a giant spread (virtual wonging), or the dealer is cutting off less than a deck. Resplit Aces or Late Surrender can make the game playable in play-all mode with big spread and table exits/switches with 1.25 deck cuts or better. Otherwise, save your bankroll. The Flux is massive on a game like this if cuts are not really deep, you're looking at 500 hours of play to get into a reasonable long run and the number of positive EV rounds are so few your Wonging will be quite obvious.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk

[Freightman]

2 comments.

As Bigplayer has intimated, deep pen makes up for lousy rules. Unlike Bigplayer, there is no edge starting at true 1. Cvcx will show an edge, however, the edge incorporates all results from true 1.0 thru true 1.99. Duplicate your sim, but use half true counts. True count from 1.0 thru 1.49 should still show a loss, with an edge showing in the bucket 1.5 thru 1.99.

Haven’t simmed, but should be right.

[DSchles]

2 comments.

As Bigplayer has intimated, deep pen makes up for lousy rules. Unlike Bigplayer, there is no edge starting at true 1. Cvcx will show an edge, however, the edge incorporates all results from true 1.0 thru true 1.99. Duplicate your sim, but use half true counts. True count from 1.0 thru 1.49 should still show a loss, with an edge showing in the bucket 1.5 thru 1.99.

Haven’t simmed, but should be right.

We don't raise our bets or make plays according to discrete points; rather, we do so for buckets or bins. If someone were to ask me whether we had an edge at true 1 in this game, I would interpret the question to mean if an edge existed for the TC 1 to 1.99 bucket. I wouldn't interpret it to mean if the edge began precisely at TC = 1.00.

Don

[Freightman]

We don't raise our bets or make plays according to discrete points; rather, we do so for buckets or bins. If someone were to ask me whether we had an edge at true 1 in this game, I would interpret the question to mean if an edge existed for the TC 1 to 1.99 bucket. I wouldn't interpret it to mean if the edge began precisely at TC = 1.00.

Don

3 points
1.Your commentary confirms my thoughts. Most counters would interpret having an edge at 1.0. Your paradigms are the exception, not the rule.
2. Further, I’ve seen 2 HIGH Stakes pros who have posted here jump from 1x25 to 2x200 or 300 (depending on individual) at true 1.0. In other words, increasing risk up to 24x with no edge. Also, I’ve seen many counters do this.
3. We are all wired differently, each processing information in our own unique ways.

[Nitram]

I just ran it on cvcx again and it shows

a win/loss of -0.17 at true 1/2
a win/loss of 0.13 at true 1

[Nitram]

I know this is minor.. I just want to make sure I am understanding correctly.. that if cvcx shows a positive win/loss that means that the player has the advantage.

[Norm]

Having an advantage is good. But, advantage versus risk is important. Let CVCX tell you if you should raise your bet there as per your settings.

[Freightman]

I just ran it on cvcx again and it shows

a win/loss of -0.17 at true 1/2
a win/loss of 0.13 at true 1

So, with your previously stated home game conditions, house edge of......call it .5, you are dead even with the house at true 1.0.

Regular sims will tell you to maintain your single unit bet. Not withstanding jumping to 2x300 at 1.0 (kind of ridiculous), a couple of scenarios that will assist you in increasing your spread.

1. If you don’t mind trading a little variance with the house, raise to 2 units at 1.0. Effect on SCORE and win rate are negligible. Further, it will assist you 8n getting more money on the table at true 2, and double that at true 3. So, negative edge, single unit, break even 2 units, .5 edge 3 or 4 Units, 1.0 edge 8 units. The progression looks a bit more Like counter without break even increase. Further, with The high stakes counters previously alluded to, it looks ridiculous to go in 3 hands from 1x25 to 2x300 back to 1x25- comprende.

2. A 2 tiered betting scheme and having the further ability of evaluating true count quality may well see an increase in betting units in a negative count. Think about that one for a while.

[Freightman]

Having an advantage is good. But, advantage versus risk is important. Let CVCX tell you if you should raise your bet there as per your settings.

Good advice for the shoestring bankroll. Solid rolls can ignore this in favour of spread.

[ummagumma]

Hi,

A location has a blackjack 8 deck, H17, DAS game.

It doesn't have surrender, or RSA.


CBJN rates it as -0.66 off the top

CVCX shows I can raise at true 1

Page 35 of Professional Blackjack rates the game as -0.63
((-0.57 + (-0.20) + (0.14)) = -0.63


How would you rate this game and at when would the player have the advantage?

Thank you

Quite how anyone can 'rate' this game I don't know given that you don't mention the most important element - the penetration. By the sounds of it though the pen will probably be as terrible as the basic rules. Personally I wouldn't give it a second glance unless the pen is fantastic.

[21forme]

call it .5, you are dead even with the house at true 1.0.

Not exactly and not necessarily. While we often use each TC is 0.5% that's not exactly correct and it varies. As the TC changes, the edge for that bucket may be 0.4 or may be 0.65, depending on rules, decks, pen, etc.

[BoSox]

Having an advantage is good. But, advantage versus risk is important.

You are not kidding Norm, that is extremely important. One of the last things most players need to be doing is trading variance with the house based on almost no edge at all.

Good advice for the shoestring bankroll. Solid rolls can ignore this in favour of spread.

Regarding spread it depends upon where and how long you play. Quite often it is the spread that gets you shown the door. Showing a bigger spread implies to the house that you are either a risk taker "gambler" or a possible real threat who may be well financed. Besides who needs all the extra variance anyway? What appears to be a solid playing bank can often take huge hits quickly, with always plenty of exposure in the process. Nothing wrong with using the grind method.