Calculating max bets with bankroll

[ZeeBabar]

I am trying to figure out what my max bet should be according to my bankroll. In his book, Eliot Jacobsen suggests a formulae that I don’t quite get....bring no good at math.

He says Maximum bet = bankroll / (expectation x lifetime hands)

Since I am over 70, assuming I have 5 years ahead at 300 hours per year, should my lifetime hands be 1500 hours. 1500 hours at say 100 an hour would be 150,000.

Assuming I have a bankroll of $50,000. Should my max bet be

Max bet = 50,000/0.61 x 150,000 or ?

What am I doing wrong? What should my max bet be, given a BR of $50,000 given a game with a -0.56 ot -0.61 expectation be if I was to play 150,000 hands?

[G Man]

You're playing a negative expectation game. Your max bet should be zero.
I see you on this board for so much time, it's impossible you still ask that kind of question...

[PinkChip]

I am trying to figure out what my max bet should be according to my bankroll. In his book, Eliot Jacobsen suggests a formulae that I don’t quite get....bring no good at math.

He says Maximum bet = bankroll / (expectation x lifetime hands)

Why is the expectation in the denominator? Increasing expectation should increase, not decrease your max bet.

[Eliot]

That comes out to $54.64. Remember percents, so that you need to plug in 0.0061 for 0.61%.

[Eliot]

And just to be clear, this formula is used for a casual gambler who is playing a game where the house has the edge; it is meant to give a max bet that will allow you to preserve your bankroll for your lifetime. It is also used to show how much casual gamblers over-bet their bankroll. This formula has nothing to do with an appropriate max bet for an advantage player. I do agree with G-Man's statement that you should wager $0 if you are not playing with an edge. But, this formula is for the person who knowingly enters a casino to play as a losing casual gambler.

For those who may be wondering, this formula is given in The Blackjack Zone (2005) on page 71. I don't discuss card counting until page 129.

[ZeeBabar]

And just to be clear, this formula is used for a casual gambler who is playing a game where the house has the edge; it is meant to give a max bet that will allow you to preserve your bankroll for your lifetime. It is also used to show how much casual gamblers over-bet their bankroll. This formula has nothing to do with an appropriate max bet for an advantage player. I do agree with G-Man's statement that you should wager $0 if you are not playing with an edge. But, this formula is for the person who knowingly enters a casino to play as a loser.

Thank you. In my case, I am a recreational player but now, retired and with additional available time coming (son leaves for college this Fall), expect to be playing about 300 hours a year. I have been playing DD games (75%) with 1-6 spread or $25-$150 and 6 deck games at red chip levels playing $10 minimum to 2 x $90.

I am trying to determine Bankroll needs and possible max bets with low ROR. I want to set aside $50-$70k as a BR.

My issue is learning to be comfortable with heat and with higher max bets. Was trying to figure out what max bet I could play at with a $50k bankroll and low ROR.

[Eliot]

Thank you. In my case, I am a recreational player but now, retired and with additional available time coming (son leaves for college this Fall), expect to be playing about 300 hours a year. I have been playing DD games (75%) with 1-6 spread or $25-$150 and 6 deck games at red chip levels playing $10 minimum to 2 x $90.

I am trying to determine Bankroll needs and possible max bets with low ROR. I want to set aside $50-$70k as a BR.

My issue is learning to be comfortable with heat and with higher max bets. Was trying to figure out what max bet I could play at with a $50k bankroll and low ROR.

Obviously the formula in my book that you quoted has nothing to do with this situation. You believe you have an edge. In that case, you expect your BR to grow with time, not shrink. There is commercial software available that will answer your specific question.

[21forme]

There is commercial software available that will answer your specific question.

He has been told that many more times than your post count

Norm has some online calculators. Is BR/ROR one of them?

[ZeeBabar]

He has been told that many more times than your post count

Norm has some online calculators. Is BR/ROR one of them?

Just want to know what a max bet should be forbade $50k bankroll with a low ROR

[Freightman]

Just want to know what a max bet should be forbade $50k bankroll with a low ROR

Zee TCD
Since you don’t use software, use simple math as it pertains to Kelly betting, which you can easily use on the fly - further understanding that the max bet arrived it may Exceed table max or simply be to high for casino comfort in any event.

Forget the 50k bankroll, you’ve recently announced your bankroll as 80k, so let’s use that. Kelly (developed for stock and modified for BJ, is skewed in any event - basically says to bet advantage x bankroll. So, full Kelly on 80k bankroll with 1% advantage = $800, 2% = $1600 and so forth. Full Kelly projects ror as about 13.5%. This variance roller coaster is not for the faint of heart and can lead to absolute wild swings. Half Kelly would reduce the 1% advantage bet above from 800 and 400, and would reduce for to under 2%. Quarter Kelly would reduce that to a significantly lower ror, not in front of my computer.

So, to answer your question - are you asking about double deck, or 6 deck, both of which you play.
For 6deck, assume max of true 6 with house edge of .5. This equates to 3% advantage, or $2400 full Kelly. Quarter Kelly would be $600 - zee, would you bet $600-don’t think so, the answer is basically what you want.

Let’s look momentarily double deck with true 12. I was once in this position having just lost a Max bet decimating my chip stack where my opening min bet was $25. I debated (Quickly) the amount of my steamer bet. I quickly considered table max 0f 2x1000, well within quarter Kelly guidelines. I discounted that even considering house tolerance, concerned that house assets would be unleashed against me - 86 me with prejudice, and thus, I opted for the more conservative and modest thrust of 2x500 heads up bet.

Regardless, in your case, the max bet for with low ror is meaningless since you wont bet it anyways. Nothing wrong with that - simply a matter Of what your goals are. What you’re better off doing is strengthening your ramps, which are still weak. You’ll get a lot more mileage out of that.

[DSchles]

"Kelly (developed for stock and modified for BJ, is skewed in any event - basically says to bet advantage x bankroll."

No it doesn't, and I've corrected you on this before. Kelly says to bet (advantage x bankroll)/variance. And for games at which the ratio of a winning bet to a losing one is substantial, betting edge x bankroll would be a disaster. For those cases, Kelly says to bet (bank x edge)/the ratio of a winning bet to a losing one.

So, don't be sloppy.

Don

[ZeeBabar]

Zee TCD
Since you don’t use software, use simple math as it pertains to Kelly betting, which you can easily use on the fly - further understanding that the max bet arrived it may Exceed table max or simply be to high for casino comfort in any event.

Forget the 50k bankroll, you’ve recently announced your bankroll as 80k, so let’s use that. Kelly (developed for stock and modified for BJ, is skewed in any event - basically says to bet advantage x bankroll. So, full Kelly on 80k bankroll with 1% advantage = $800, 2% = $1600 and so forth. Full Kelly projects ror as about 13.5%. This variance roller coaster is not for the faint of heart and can lead to absolute wild swings. Half Kelly would reduce the 1% advantage bet above from 800 and 400, and would reduce for to under 2%. Quarter Kelly would reduce that to a significantly lower ror, not in front of my computer.

So, to answer your question - are you asking about double deck, or 6 deck, both of which you play.
For 6deck, assume max of true 6 with house edge of .5. This equates to 3% advantage, or $2400 full Kelly. Quarter Kelly would be $600 - zee, would you bet $600-don’t think so, the answer is basically what you want.

Let’s look momentarily double deck with true 12. I was once in this position having just lost a Max bet decimating my chip stack where my opening min bet was $25. I debated (Quickly) the amount of my steamer bet. I quickly considered table max 0f 2x1000, well within quarter Kelly guidelines. I discounted that even considering house tolerance, concerned that house assets would be unleashed against me - 86 me with prejudice, and thus, I opted for the more conservative and modest thrust of 2x500 heads up bet.

Regardless, in your case, the max bet for with low ror is meaningless since you wont bet it anyways. Nothing wrong with that - simply a matter Of what your goals are. What you’re better off doing is strengthening your ramps, which are still weak. You’ll get a lot more mileage out of that.

Freightman, I have $80k but since I can’t handle betting much more (increase to higher max bets) I saw no point in keeping an $80k bankroll. I was thinking of taking out $30k, keeping a $50k bankroll and wondering if I could comfortably play my spreads, maybe move up to $25 min. 6 deck games, play a max bet of $300-$400. Wondering what my ROR is given the $50k bankroll.

[Freightman]

"Kelly (developed for stock and modified for BJ, is skewed in any event - basically says to bet advantage x bankroll."

No it doesn't, and I've corrected you on this before. Kelly says to bet (advantage x bankroll)/variance. And for games at which the ratio of a winning bet to a losing one is substantial, betting edge x bankroll would be a disaster. For those cases, Kelly says to bet (bank x edge)/the ratio of a winning bet to a losing one.

So, don't be sloppy.

Don

Of course, you’re right. However, the simplicity expressed is more easily understood by the addressee, and since he will never wager the huge potential bet intimated, well.........., I harm - but your point is well made.