Why A7 vs A at TC>1 become stand in S17

[BJGenius007]

Here is the answer to your questions.

See the attached PDF.

For standing A7 v A
CC = Correlation Coefficient, AACpTCp = Average Advantage Change per True count point, Idx = infinite deck Index
Count.................. CC........AACpTCp......Idx
HL.......................50%.........0.5%........1 .4
3m6c...................70%.........1.7%........0.5
HL + 3*(3m6c)......85%.........0.5%.......1.3

So HL + 3*(3m6c) is a very powerful count for standing on A7 v A.
Note AACpTCp of HL + 3*(3m6c) is the same as the AACpTCp of HL at 0.5% But that ignores the fact that HL + 3*(3m6c) has a much higher SD than HL and so HL + 3*(3m6c) hits an index of 1.3 much more often than that HL hits an index of 1.4.

The logic behind standing on psrc = HL + 3*(3m6c) >= 1.3*dr where dr = decks remaining and psrc = playing strategy running count is that as 3m6c increased there is a deficiency of 3's and an excess of 6's left in the shoe. That means a large 3m6c means is is less likely that if player hit his A7 he would pick up a 3 for a perfect 21 and more likely that he would pick up a 6 for a stiff. Also with excess 6's it is more likely that the dealer has a six in the hole giving dealer an A6 which dealer must stand on in the S17 game and you automatically win by standing on your A7 v A.

With EoR and LSL technique, answers to all blackjack strategy variations can be answered correctly and quickly.

So here is the attached PDF with the LSL calculations and index, CC and AACpTCp calculations.
Attachment 4343

You add another side count 3m6c, I guess 3 contrast 6 count. How many side counts do you think a player can track while playing blackjack?

[Freightman]

You add another side count 3m6c, I guess 3 contrast 6 count. How many side counts do you think a player can track while playing blackjack?

The Formidable FBM ASC Advanced side count of 6,7,8,9 Cumulative intermediates count as 1, along with ASC (digital method) makes 2.

Snarky, simply to advise you that your post where you referred to me as a turd and my subsequent response, were deleted by Board Admin. Consider using different verbs and adjectives when you respond.

[bjanalyst]

Since it is 100% certain that the OP has no clue about anything you're talking about and probably uses Hi-Lo, where 3 and 6 both have identical tag values of +1, why don't you try to stop advertising your count and try to explain the +1 index for Hi-Lo.

Don

Attached is a three page PDF where I simplified my analysis and explanation.

The first page is the analysis of KO + 3*(3m6c) for standing on soft 18 v A.

The second page is the analysis of KO + AA89mTC for standing on soft 18 v A. I keep KO with AA89mTc (and 5m9c) so this is what I actually use.

The third page of the PDF has the logic behind the strategy changes for KO + 3*(3m6c) and KO + AA89mTc. The KO + AA89mTc logic for standing on soft 18 v A is similar to the HL logic (with the KO + AA89mTc having additional power in this situation as showing by CC and in the explanation) so look at the 3rd page KO + AA89mTc explanation.

Basically as the tc(HL) increases there are more Tens left in the shoe and if the dealer's hole card is an Ace, 2, 3, 4 or 5 the excess Tens makes it more likely that the dealer will bust with his Ace up card (just a little more likely) and thus with a higher tc(HL) it is better to stand on soft 18 v A.

I hope that his clears up standing on soft 18 v A when tc(HL) >= 2.

I have included a second one page PDF with just the last page of the three page first PDF as I corrected a typo where I copied the wrong CC and other statistics for 3m6c and KO + 3*(3m6c).
soft 18 v A hit-stand analysis and explanation.pdf
soft 18 v A analysis - corrected.pdf

[bjanalyst]

You add another side count 3m6c, I guess 3 contrast 6 count. How many side counts do you think a player can track while playing blackjack?

The 3m6c was shown just for theoretical interest. Of course you are not going to keep a 3m6c for sanding on soft 18 v A.

But the count i keep is KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c which beats HO2 w ASC and ties Tarzan and may even beat Tarzan. Also not e that OK w AA89mTc and 5m7c which was simulated by Gronbog definitely beat HO2 w ASC for both LS and no LS. Tarzan only published his count for no LS but has sims done for the LS game which he decided not to publish the results. Leads one to believe that perhaps Tarzans' count is not robust and cannot handle the LS game or other variations or side bets like my counts can.

I have every single sim that Gronbog did for me published. I did not hold back any information. And ever single time, without exception, when CC increase the SCORE increased. There was not a single instance where the CC increased and the SCORE decreased.

My CC method has an impressive track record. It is correct and gives extremely accurate result quickly.

I am working on a total redoing of my books and I will be getting my own ISBN's and publishing it myself. Xlibirs never gave me any reports of sales and never gave me royalties and if yo good "Xlibirs reviews" you will see over 500 complaints of Xlibirs not paying royalties o other. So I am doing it myself this time.

I am striving to make my books comprehensive and exact. They will be correct and powerful and if you use chips they are very easy to use. My books will be available as PDFs and very reasonably priced. If there is interest, I will put links to my books when they are done in the next few months.

[bjanalyst]

Don - He's just like T3, for whom my catchphrase was, "if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."

I have been using KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c at the casino I play at with DAS, LS, S17 and Super 4 and Lucky Ladies. It works great and with chips I have no problem in keeping the side counts. And I have been making money consistently with a lot less risk than the HL users and with great cover because of strange playing strategy plays that look incorrect to the pit if they were using the hL to track you.

The problem with the HL is that it is too easy to use. As Don Johnson who won $15 million said in a YouTube interview, "a monkey can count cards" So what do you think that pit is. The people can learn the HL can catch you because it is so easy to use. I have been playing at this casino for a few years and never any heat. My friend who uses the HL got caught an thrown out. I have no problem. So what does that tell you.

So it is not bullshit. It works, there is great camouflaged and I make money and get comps and the casino has no idea what is going on. And because it takes effort and commitment to learn, the casino has no idea what is happening.

I have been using KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c at the casino I play at with DAS, LS, S17 and Super 4 and Lucky Ladies. It works great and with chips I have no problem in keeping the side counts. And I have been making money consistently with a lot less risk than the HL users and with great cover because of strange playing strategy plays that look incorrect to the pit if they were using the hL to track you.

The problem with the HL is that it is too easy to use. As Don Johnson who won $15 million said in a YouTube interview, "a monkey can count cards" So what do you think that pit is. The people can learn the HL can catch you because it is so easy to use. I have been playing at this casino for a few years and never any heat. My friend who uses the HL got caught an thrown out. I have no problem. So what does that tell you?

I tried to convince my friend to switch from the HL to the KO but forget it. He awl not. And as I said all of the counters I meet use the HL and will not switch to any other count. So if I cannot get him to even switch to the KO then forget about getting him to switch to KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c.

The only people that really understand what I have been doing is Gronbog and ETFAN who works for Arnold Snyder who helped me in the beginning gain the theoretical knowledge i needed to complete my analysis and verified that my LSL Excel program I created was correct. I first started my endeavor and came up with my idea of plus/minus side counts and my LSL method I derived in 2010-2011 with the help of ETFAN so this has been a long process and I owe a debt of gratitude to ETFAN who is a true genius. And I also owe a debt of gratitude for Gronbog for his sims. It was a pleasure writing to both of them since they are the only ones so for who really understood what I was doing. Both Gronbog and ETFAN are very talented and extremely smart.

I also coded in the indices generated from Griffin's proportional deflection that ETFAN taught me and the indices generated by PD agreed with indices generated by my LSL technique to 10 decimal places. - ETFAN wanted to be sure there was no mistake. Another test that my LSL program passed. And when I calculated indices for published counts with my LSL program the results agreed with the published indices. And the power ranking of published counts using my CC's agreed with the rankings by sims.

So it is not bullshit. It works, there is great camouflaged and I make money and get comps and the casino has no idea what is going on. And because it takes effort and commitment to learn, the casino has no idea what is happening.

My CC method has passed EVERY SINGLE TEST that was thrown at it with flying colors including Gronbog's analysis of KO w 7m9c done several months ago. And when he took my top six strategy changes individually every single strategy change which increased CC also increased the SCORE. Also the indices calculated with the LSL method were used in Gronbog's sim and Gronbog also calculated indices with some index generation sim program which matched my indices calculated with the LSL method. And my derived formulas of the relationship of indies between various counts systems, Idx = k*(SD/CC), has also been shown to be correct. All of this and much more will be included in my redone books.

So again, there was not a single test done that showed my CC was incorrect. It passed every test. So where is the bullshit?

[ZeeBabar]

You got T3 beat my man....your proportion of short versus long posts are way higher!

[bjanalyst]

You got T3 beat my man....your proportion of short versus long posts are way higher!

Your goal as a blackjack player is to make money and not get kicked out of the casino.

The game I play has Lucky Ladies and Super 4 both bets which give me excellent cover.

For the six deck game, if Tc = perfect Ten count = KO + AA89mTc >= 30 I place a large LL bet.

SD(AA89mTc) = SD(HL) and CC(AA89mTc,KO) = 19%. That means KO.bal can be small and AA89mTc can be large. Also HL for the six deck game, five decks dealt can vary from -30 to +30 and therefore so can AA89mTc.

So here is what happened yesterday (and has happened many other times). KO was very small but AA89mTc was over +20, So tc(KO) was small so I was making my minimum blackjack bet of $15 but Tc = KO + AA89mTc was over 30 so I was betting maximum $25 LL bet and winning. So the casino sees me betting maximum LL bet of $25 when my blackjack bet is small and the tc(HL) is small because tc(KO) is small so they figure I was just a regular loser gambler who got lucky.

The HL player bets his LL bet when tc(HL) >= 6.5 or so. So the HL player is always betting his maximum LL when the tc(HL) is high and his blackjack bet is a maximum. This is very obvious to the casino what you are doing if they are tracking you. You risk getting caught and thrown out.

Compare that with my place of maximum LL bet with minimum blackjack bet and tc(HL) = 0.

This is just one of the many, many strategy changes that are actually correct with KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c but look like errors to the casino who uses the HL to track to see if you are a counting.

There was a counter last month who sat at my table (I really should not be at a table with another counter - I will not do that again) and was watching me intently for three shoes and finally approached me when we left the table and asked me if I was counting. He said my cover play was amazing and he had a hard time figuring out what I was doing.

So besides wining more money with KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c you can play without being detected as a counter.

But it really does not matter what I say as I still have never been able to convince any HL player to even switch to KO or to add a 5m9c side count for example. HL players are stubborn. The casino knows players use HL and they know the Illustrious 18 and bet spreads and that is what they look for and so these HL players with no additional cover are thrown out of casino after casino.

[ZeeBabar]

Your goal as a blackjack player is to make money and not get kicked out of the casino.

The game I play has Lucky Ladies and Super 4 both bets which give me excellent cover.

For the six deck game, if Tc = perfect Ten count = KO + AA89mTc >= 30 I place a large LL bet.

SD(AA89mTc) = SD(HL) and CC(AA89mTc,KO) = 19%. That means KO.bal can be small and AA89mTc can be large. Also HL for the six deck game, five decks dealt can vary from -30 to +30 and therefore so can AA89mTc.

So here is what happened yesterday (and has happened many other times). KO was very small but AA89mTc was over +20, So tc(KO) was small so I was making my minimum blackjack bet of $15 but Tc = KO + AA89mTc was over 30 so I was betting maximum $25 LL bet and winning. So the casino sees me betting maximum LL bet of $25 when my blackjack bet is small and the tc(HL) is small because tc(KO) is small so they figure I was just a regular loser gambler who got lucky.

The HL player bets his LL bet when tc(HL) >= 6.5 or so. So the HL player is always betting his maximum LL when the tc(HL) is high and his blackjack bet is a maximum. This is very obvious to the casino what you are doing if they are tracking you. You risk getting caught and thrown out.

Compare that with my place of maximum LL bet with minimum blackjack bet and tc(HL) = 0.

This is just one of the many, many strategy changes that are actually correct with KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c but look like errors to the casino who uses the HL to track to see if you are a counting.

There was a counter last month who sat at my table (I really should not be at a table with another counter - I will not do that again) and was watching me intently for three shoes and finally approached me when we left the table and asked me if I was counting. He said my cover play was amazing and he had a hard time figuring out what I was doing.

So besides wining more money with KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c you can play without being detected as a counter.

But it really does not matter what I say as I still have never been able to convince any HL player to even switch to KO or to add a 5m9c side count for example. HL players are stubborn. The casino knows players use HL and they know the Illustrious 18 and bet spreads and that is what they look for and so these HL players with no additional cover are thrown out of casino after casino.

Whether you use HL or KO or your stuff, does not matter. You bet more when there are big cards left to play and the casino can use whatever system to know when there are more big cards to be played.

Second, a casino does not go about kicking out everyone they spot as counting. They also know that most card counters are losers and correctly so. A whole lot of card counters don’t have sufficient BR or don’t know optimal betting or money management.

If you are winning, they may run a skills test on you.

Right about now, in the short time you have been around, you have been successful in one thing for sure....convincing a lot of forum members that you are a head case with a giant ego. Maybe Norm should allow a poll, how many members think you are a head case.

[21forme]

Very well said, Zee.

[Freightman]

Whether you use HL or KO or your stuff, does not matter. You bet more when there are big cards left to play and the casino can use whatever system to know when there are more big cards to be played.
.

The regaled FBM ASC Advanced will protect you in the big counts, especially with dual ramp system. Helps both with keeping you in lower ramp when required, as well as creating the illusion of poor deck estimation when moving between ramps.

[beating vegas]

Whether you use HL or KO or your stuff, does not matter. You bet more when there are big cards left to play and the casino can use whatever system to know when there are more big cards to be played.

Second, a casino does not go about kicking out everyone they spot as counting. They also know that most card counters are losers and correctly so. A whole lot of card counters don’t have sufficient BR or don’t know optimal betting or money management.

If you are winning, they may run a skills test on you.

Right about now, in the short time you have been around, you have been successful in one thing for sure....convincing a lot of forum members that you are a head case with a giant ego. Maybe Norm should allow a poll, how many members think you are a head case.

I 2nd the motion for a poll.

[bjanalyst]

Whether you use HL or KO or your stuff, does not matter. You bet more when there are big cards left to play and the casino can use whatever system to know when there are more big cards to be played.

I mentioned that every counter I meet uses the HL and every single counter I ever met refuses to switch to any other system. So join the crowd.

Any yes, casinos love the fact that players think they can learn a count and beeat the game. They will not throw you out untless thay are fairly cerain hyou are a counter.

The mistake my friend made was that in this short session he had there were five good shoes he played out of a total of six shoes. only one shoe was bad. VEry unusual, And the shoes he did play he told me that two or three of them had true counts over 10 near the end.

The session had just huge sample size all in one session so no need to even pull up history. It was very obvious what he was doing. Five shoes was enoiugh to confirm to the casino that we was a counter and a good counter. His maximum bet was $110 on each to two hands and his minimum bet was $15 on one hand.

I did not say that my camouflaged play was perfect but it is enough to throw them off if they were looking. I told you another counter watched me for three shoes and was still not certain if I was counting.

I mentioned the LL bet which the casino knows can be beating. If you are HL player you bet LL when tc(HL) >= 6.5 so you are always betting HL when you have your maximum blackjack bet out.

Casinos know this also. The see your betting $100 on each fo two hands and $25 on LL consistently and never betting LL at other times. This is a dead give away.

I explained that there are times when I bet $15 on blackjack and $25 on LL when tc(HL) = 0. There goes your theory about making only big bets when tc(HL) is very large.

If I make enough of these mistakes they will peg me as one of the very bad counters and no threated you mentioned in a pervious post which is what I want.

Also I use two stacks of chips for my AA89mTc and 5m9c side counts and have never been bothered about that. My friend who was thrown out refuses to use chips even for a 5m9c side count to the HL as he feels that a stack of chips will give him away to the casino. Well he got caught I did not. The casino doesn't care about my chip stacks, they have me down as a loser and if I need chips to keep the count i must be really dumb and a novice if they even notice it.

I also mentioned in another post that I play the $15 tables and buy in for $400 or so and when I start winning I put some green chip winnings in my pocket surreptitiously so they do not know. This makes it look like I am losing a lot of money. When a new dealer comes on. I grab a bunch of my green chips and put them in m pocket because the new dealer has no idea what I bought in for. So after a few hands with the new dealer, I buy in for more chips to make it look like I am losing. When the shoe goes bad I ask for a marker to take a bathroom break and cash in the green chips in my pockets so I have more money for additional buy ins when I get back to the table.

So that is excellent camouflage and there are a lot of other camouflage plays as well, too many for me to mention.

But I understand, you are like the crowd and will never switch from the HL. which is fine. You can win with the HL and I will not argue with that. My friend wins with the HL but he gets kicked out of casinos and he has a larger bankroll risk with a weaker count.

[bjanalyst]

I 2nd the motion for a poll.

Listen, please STOP with the personal insults and attacks on me. Previously the attacks were calling me a Charlton and that my system was crap. Now that it is proven that I have only given correct information, you are still attacking me personally and I do not like it one bit.

I gain nothing from giving you this information. I do it as a courtesy for blackjack education for those who are interested in learning which you obviously are not. This post was about a legitimate question about standing on soft 18 v A and I answered it thoroughly. I see no need for insults.

I also gave credit to those who helped me namely ETFAN and Gronbog. So where is my "big' head when I am giving credit to others also.

Why don't you insult Gronbog then when he does his sims and say he has a big head. I am getting very tired of these insults. I thought they were over.

Finally I play $15 blackjack at maximum bets of $100 on each of two hands which many times I cap at $75 on each of two hands and I am still aware if I am being watched but I am not. I have been doing this at the casino I play at and I have zero problems. They think I am a total moron. and that is how I come across.

A few days ago I won almost $1,000 in one shoe (I played $25 on LL and got suited and matched for 25 to 1 or $625 payout which the casino thinks is pure luck) and I am so obnoxious about it I told everyone I was an excellent, smart blackjack player and I know how to play blackjack because I am really smart which is why I won. The pit boss who knows me say to me "no you are not". I told you they have me down as a total fool. Counters do not go proclaiming to the pit that they are excellent blackjack players but I do sometimes if I win big - I have to judge the situation first.

I am not a big player. I do this for the challenge and I share my information to other who are interested in learning which is the purpose of this forum in the first place.

I guess since you cannot attack my results attacking me personally makes you feel good about yourself. I am not psychologist but perhaps I detect a bit of jealousy on your part and a " know everything already" attitude and so "I know it all! and there is nothing else i need to know or learn". If that is your attitude then why are you even on this forum anyhow.

Your posts are very shameful and insulting and you really need to apologize.

I do not attack other readers, I suggest that you do not attack me.

I do blackjack because it is a challenge and like a puzzle for me to solve. I do not do that to intimated others. I try to help others.

Also I do not need any money from blackjack as I am a landlord with over a dozen properties and over twenty tenants. I do not need blackjack income.

So I am asking for some respect here and stop the insults.

As I used to mention in previous posts when I was insulted, i ask for constructive criticism only, no destructive criticism please.