Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

[aceside]

Don,

I somehow missed this comment when you posted it years ago.

To answer your comment #2, I ran two 2-billion-round sims: one for a H17 game; the other for a S17 game. I used Norm's excellent "Dealer Must Complete Hand" option to force the dealer to draw to at least H17 or S18. Below is a graph showing the results for H17 and S17 6D games.

I truncated each graph to show TC's only in the range of -10 to +10: the remainder of the TC's comprise less than 0.1% of the rounds.

The overall Bust Rate is 28.57% for H17 and 28.19% for S17.

The highest bust rate for H17 occurs at a TC of -2: 28.63%. For S17, the highest value of 28.25% occurs at both -1 & -2.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Is it possible to extend this simulation into Spanish 21? If we can see both sim results on blackjack and Spanish 21, we will easily see the effect of 10s on dealer’s bust rate, and then we can invent new counts to identify dealer’s bust hands.

[Norm]

Dealer bust rates are not valuable except for dealer bust side counts.

[Freightman]

Dealer bust rates are not valuable except for dealer bust side counts.

All that matters is the probability of you winning your particular hand, not an overall dealer bust rate which may depend on the hands and actions of other players.

You’ve made your point several times also mentioning other players. I play a lot of heads up - and dealer bust rates are relative to me. I guess it’s a matter of perspectives.

[Norm]

I was trying to stop someone from a wild goose chase. I will stop as it appears to annoy you.

[iCountNTrack]

@freightman

Sorry but facts don't care about what's important to you. Dealer bust rates for regular game of blackjack is absolutely irrelevant. As matter of fact I don't even calculate the bust rage in my Combinatorial Analyzer, and the expectation values calculated by my CA have been reproduced by countless other CA and simulations. Dealer bust rates have been used by countless voodoo systems so you know where this going.

[Freightman]

@freightman

Sorry but facts don't care about what's important to you. Dealer bust rates for regular game of blackjack is absolutely irrelevant. As matter of fact I don't even calculate the bust rage in my Combinatorial Analyzer, and the expectation values calculated by my CA have been reproduced by countless other CA and simulations. Dealer bust rates have been used by countless voodoo systems so you know where this going.

Seems to me I responded with a one word post that took about 2 minutes to be get nixed. Exactly what rule was broken - and for that matter - neither you or Norm are on track as to what is, or is not important to me.

Unless I’m mistaken, think I made some pretty fair quality posts in this thread.

[Secretariat]

@freightman

Dealer bust rates for regular game of blackjack is absolutely irrelevant.

Please, explain why. I would like to see your thoughts instead of a yellow threat!

[Norm]

What threat?

[Secretariat]

What threat?

His last sentence was ... so you know where this is going.

I presume to the disadvantage forum. A "threat" to move that thread over there.
What else can that mean?

[Norm]

Doesn't seem like much of a threat. In any case, Freightman has been suspended for the fourth time, after a last warning, for a week, for a year of insults, putdowns, trolling, one line statements in other threads that his system is better than yours with zero explanation, and odd comments about his nether regions. This is extremely disruptive to civil discourse and frankly useless.

[iCountNTrack]

His last sentence was ... so you know where this going.

I presume the disadvantage forum. A "threat" to move that thread over there.
What else can that mean?

That's not what I meant. I meant Voodoo systems creators have always used the dealer bust rates to "prove" the merits of their system, so you know it's bogus.

Once again, this has been debunked over and over in public BJ forums and serious BJ books. Besides INFORMATIONAL purposes, dealer bust rates for a standard BJ game is absolutely irrelevant. You can't make ANY playing or betting decision based on that. It's utterly useless

[Norm]

Bet the Bust
Bust Bonus
EZ Bust

These are three games where bust rate may be useful. Not useful for normal games.

[21forme]

You can't make ANY playing or betting decision based on that. It's utterly useless
Chance favors the prepared mind

Careful with blanket statements like this.

While not a common situation, here's a play I did a year or so ago:
TC +12. I had 3,2 v 5. Knowing the bust rate for a dealer 5 is over 50% at that TC (from the graphs referenced by Doghand), I doubled (and won). Granted, not a common scenario, but here, knowing the bust rate made the play for me.