Blackjack Probability

[Norm]

I don't want to buck any conventional wisdom or ruffle any respected feathers but as far as stop loss goes, I consider it an essential part of winning and I personally think that statistics have a lot to say about how to create effective stop losses

And you would be incorrect. Nothing to do with conventional wisdom. Just math and statistics.

For some stats. you might want to look at:

https://www.blackjackincolor.com/
http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/res...p?do=statspage
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...hp?do=calcpage
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...?do=bjtfcharts
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...p?do=chartpage

[Stealth]

I personally think that statistics have a lot to say about how to create effective stop losses.

Knowledgeable responses will tell you that stop losses or stop wins are a mirage and offer no advantage. Don't resist the information, just do deeper research before making statements like "effective stop losses".

These people are not wrong.

[21forme]

Knowledgeable responses will tell you that stop losses or stop wins are a mirage and offer no advantage. Don't resist the information, just do deeper research before making statements like "effective stop losses".

These people are not wrong.

^^^ What he said.

[Stealth]

Researh John Austin's BJ Analyzer (about 90% sure) with a Random Walk feature then you will not have to re-invent the wheel.

Don or Norm will likely correct reference is I am wrong.

[DSchles]

Researh John Austin's BJ Analyzer (about 90% sure) with a Random Walk feature then you will not have to re-invent the wheel.

Don or Norm will likely correct reference is I am wrong.

John Auston, with an o. Blackjack Risk Manager 2002.

Don

[DSchles]

Hey there everyone!

I have spent years analyzing roulette statistics and they are very easy to generate (just throw up random numbers from 0-36) but now that I am moving into blackjack, the actual statistics are a mystery to me.

We all know that the HE is not the culprit for loss streaks, heck even with a PLAYER advantage of 1%, we will still see streaks against us that will put us in a deep hole (either direct or successive); our problem is of course negative variance.

So, I am a programmer and I can create a blackjack session simulator to analyze the worst streaks of losses and their probability and I guess that's what I need to do if I want to learn this information?

My main issue of concern is how streaks of loss in blackjack compare with roulette; are they better? Worse? Equal?

For instance, it is commonly accepted that 25 EC's in a row is a benchmark that might be seen once in a person's lifetime (once in tens of millions of coup attempts) and each coup attempt has its own probability, from 1 on down the list to the 25th.

Does anyone have any advice or knowledge about these sorts of things?

Enjoy having a look around here: http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc_streak.htm

Or here: http://williamray.net/statistics/CalculateStreaks.shtml

Or here (scroll down a bit): https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/home

Don

[Jack Daniels]

This

	#NAME?	$Won	Won %	Cumm. %	#NAME?	$Lost	Lost %	Cumm. %
1	15598	$868,810	51.65%	51.65%	14143	$1,333,761	46.83%	46.83%
2	7473	$1,419,781	24.75%	76.39%	7514	$1,150,772	24.88%	71.71%
3	3743	$1,054,886	12.39%	88.79%	4007	$780,193	13.27%	84.98%
4	1716	$583,665	5.68%	94.47%	2166	$567,938	7.17%	92.15%
5	839	$307,177	2.78%	97.25%	1107	$301,152	3.67%	95.82%
6	422	$164,800	1.40%	98.65%	579	$203,676	1.92%	97.74%
7	209	$107,670	0.69%	99.34%	321	$110,760	1.06%	98.80%
8	102	$47,923	0.34%	99.68%	175	$66,506	0.58%	99.38%
9	57	$31,500	0.19%	99.86%	75	$36,263	0.25%	99.63%
10	19	$10,358	0.06%	99.93%	52	$26,356	0.17%	99.80%
11	12	$5,278	0.04%	99.97%	28	$17,795	0.09%	99.89%
12	1	$443	0.00%	99.97%	15	$11,415	0.05%	99.94%
13	4	$7,301	0.01%	99.98%	8	$6,452	0.03%	99.97%
14	4	$2,030	0.01%	100.00%	5	$3,090	0.02%	99.98%
15	0	$0	0.00%	100.00%	1	$18,282	0.00%	99.99%
16	1	$565	0.00%	100.00%	0	$0	0.00%	99.99%
17	0	$0	0.00%	100.00%	2	$19,770	0.01%	99.99%
18	0	$0	0.00%	100.00%	1	$3,800	0.00%	100.00%
19	0	$0	0.00%	100.00%	1	$1,050	0.00%	100.00%
>19	0	$0	0.00%	100.00%	0	$0	0.00%	100.00%

This is from All logs CVBJ, Streaks go all the way to 19. This has not been modified in any way.I hope it helps
I Think I may have discovered something from this table and I am looking for somebody with a strong math background to design a rock solid "Stop Loss" . Maybe there is a way to link.

[DSchles]

I Think I may have discovered something from this table and I am looking for somebody with a strong math background to design a rock solid "Stop Loss" .

STOP HERE!! Do NOT pass Go, do not collect $200 or any other amount. A rock-solid stop loss is: Don't Play! Just don't go there! Read my lips: You haven't discovered ANYTHING.

Over/under for this new thread, anyone??

Don

[ZeeBabar]

STOP HERE!! Do NOT pass Go, do not collect $200 or any other amount. A rock-solid stop loss is: Don't Play! Just don't go there! Read my lips: You haven't discovered ANYTHING.

Over/under for this new thread, anyone??

Don

Keep it moving....break some records..

[Reyth]

Well, I must say I am overwhelmed with all the awesomeness in this here thred! Please give me some time to post and respond to specific persons. It will be a large time investment, with so many topics/concepts to respond to. For now, just a sincere thanks to everyone who posted; I read your post, appreciate it and have learned from it (especially the part about how the house always wins! :P).

[Jimmykay]

I typically use a 3 unit stop loss from my top. I want to know is there any empirical data that supports a stop loss at any level improves results for a player using basic strategy? And if there is what is the optimal stop loss and how was it derived. I’ve done some simple tests with a limited sample and it shows some promise. However, if there is anything out there that proves it does or doesn’t I would love to see the data or analysis.

[Norm]

Click on "BJ Resources" on the menu at the top. That will lead you to a large number of everything.

[ZeeBabar]

Stop loss based upon time, fatigue, longevity concerns, etc., are important in the real world.