Can The Law of Diminishing Returns Apply to Blackjack?

[Freightman]

Nice try, but I just checked the index of BJA III and there is no reference to a shoe bankroll, optimized shoe bankroll, Effective Expected Value, or Law of Diminishing Returns. I have no doubt Mr. Schlesinger will correct me if he has previously addressed this issue and I have overlooked it.

Like I previously stated, this is a new concept, and it completely contradicts conventional thinking so people will have difficulty accepting it...I had trouble believing it at first. But when I started to chart the data and saw the Hourly EV curve flatten out I recognized the LDR in effect.

Thank you for your challenges though, they always force me to reexamine my ideas...which is a good thing.

In my comments to you, I did not really address the concept of “shoe bankroll”. Your “shoe” roll is insufficient to buy you out of trouble. That fact increases your ROR.

Worst shoe I ever had gobbled about 300 units, give or take. You need to be prepared. What you’re saying seems to be - if I lose my shoe roll of 50 or 100 units, regardless of where you're at in the shoe - that’s your donation to the store.

What’s you’re approach if you simply keep winning in a shoe? Do you quit if you’ve won too much? Remember - spread is your friend, and spread need ps bankroll to (properly) spread.

Interestingly enough, depending on factors, your approach actually makes some sense, given certain conditions. I’ll elaborate.

A good friend of mine, was retired with health issues and with little, if any desire to travel, simmed his local games to about $60 per hour. His actuals could easily have been double that amount. His activities were 99% local.

No travel, well liked, reduced EV coupled with likely the best ratholing skills on the planet had him down as a net loser at several local stores. He was never backed off locally, and was only backed off once (in Vegas, at Southpointe).

Now, if your shoe roll is illusory as was your spread, then fine. If not - ouch!

He would have felt naked and vulnerable starting a game with a 100 unit “shoe” roll.

[Wave]

What you’re saying seems to be - if I lose my shoe roll of 50 or 100 units, regardless of where you're at in the shoe - that’s your donation to the store.

What’s you’re approach if you simply keep winning in a shoe? Do you quit if you’ve won too much? Remember - spread is your friend, and spread need ps bankroll to (properly) spread.

1. Yes, that is my donation. I trust the sims and the Hourly EV they forecast.

2. This is a little trickier. It has been my experience that losing does not normally draw much attention, but winning might. My current practice is to play a shoe as long as I do not hit an ODP or lose my shoe roll. I'd like to get 10 shoes in at one place before leaving, but normally that does not happen. I usually leave >=+10 units for the day and move on to the next location, but I will play a + shoe to the end. Sometimes, if I am going to the right area, I try to get 10 shoes in for the day and break them up between multiple locations. There has been many times that I played one shoe and left regardless of outcome. My situation seems to be very different from many other forum members though; I have many places to play and only play a few times a month. By rotating locations it might be a year or more before I return to a particular location. This might seem crazy to a full time AP earning a living from AP, but I'm a part time player with many casinos within a reasonable drive that does not earn a living from AP so I have a lot more flexibility regarding when, where and how I play.

3. I think I should address buy ins. I never buy in for an entire shoe roll. The most I will normally buy in for is 10 units. If I need more $ I dig it out of my pocket, but I vary that amount and keep it under 10 units unless I need more for a bet the count and my ramp indicate I should make. This seems to work well for me and has never really attracted any undue attention.

[Freightman]

1. Yes, that is my donation. I trust the sims and the Hourly EV they forecast.

2. This is a little trickier. It has been my experience that losing does not normally draw much attention, but winning might. My current practice is to play a shoe as long as I do not hit an ODP or lose my shoe roll. I'd like to get 10 shoes in at one place before leaving, but normally that does not happen. I usually leave >=+10 units for the day and move on to the next location, but I will play a + shoe to the end. Sometimes, if I am going to the right area, I try to get 10 shoes in for the day and break them up between multiple locations. There has been many times that I played one shoe and left regardless of outcome. My situation seems to be very different from many other forum members though; I have many places to play and only play a few times a month. By rotating locations it might be a year or more before I return to a particular location. This might seem crazy to a full time AP earning a living from AP, but I'm a part time player with many casinos within a reasonable drive that does not earn a living from AP so I have a lot more flexibility regarding when, where and how I play.

Now, this is where it gets interesting. How good is your record keeping. Do you know your percentage won sessions versus percentage lost - average dollars won versus average dollars lost. Do you have the ability to filter results by store, by game etc etc etc. This is where good record keeping can really expose strengths and weaknesses of your game.

My off the cuff analysis of your game suggests to me that your win percentage has to be huge in order to make money, because your average dollars lost per session is much larger than average dollars win. See below.

Assume $25 unit. You’re prepared to lose 50 units, or $1250. But you’re prepared to leave, even positive shoes, after winning 10 units or $250. I’m not going to bother working out the numbers, but rest assured that a 60% session win rate is not sufficient to overcome a 40% session lose rate, because of the huge disparity in dollars between winning and losing sessions. I see better where you’re coming up with your “optimization” numbers, and I don’t care for your thought process here.

So, you’ll likely make a few bucks at an 80% session win rate. Why don’t you try to redo your sims, or a pen and pencil calculation of reducing your session dollar losses getting closer and closer to your session dollar wins. Work it out at 60%, then 70%, then 80% session win rate. The difference in your EV per hour will astound you.

By recognizing certain nuances of the shoe, you can well afford to even reduce your average dollar win (based on normal session capitalizations), by equalizing or reducing your average dollar win to approximately equal to your average dollar loss. You’re way ahead if the game in this premise at a 60% session win rate. Now, you use the same scenario, but calculate based in 70 and 80% session win rates.

Your increase in EV will be monstrous.

[BoSox]

2. This is a little trickier. It has been my experience that losing does not normally draw much attention, but winning might.

That is a big misconception on your part. I do not know if you are a small bettor or not, but, the higher levels of play that you reach, the casino notice when you are making those large bets regardless of the outcome. Said another way some short term losses will not buy you extra time.

[Wave]

But you’re prepared to leave, even positive shoes, after winning 10 units or $250.

If you review my prior post you will see this:

I usually leave >=+10 units for the day and move on to the next location, but I will play a + shoe to the end. .

So your statement included in this post is incorrect.

The 50 unit shoe roll in the example from the original post has a shoe W% of 50.49%...same for the 100 unit shoe roll...same for the 1M unit shoe roll...same for the 10M shoe roll. Hourly EV is basically the same.

Again, the example in the OP is just an example and is not the same unit size and bet ramp I use in live play, nor is it the same Hourly EV I have in live play.

Regarding record keeping, I do have the ability calculate all the measures you referenced but have not done so because I have not found it necessary. I record dates, times, locations, playing conditions, outcomes in my playing journal and could go back and do that, but at this point is does not seem necessary. Winning trips, not shoes, over the last 3 years is 72%. I'd have to go back and do the math to ID the wiining shoe % and it seems like a lot of work that is not really needed at this point.

[DSchles]

Nice try, but I just checked the index of BJA III and there is no reference to a shoe bankroll, optimized shoe bankroll, Effective Expected Value, or Law of Diminishing Returns.

And, you're offering this up as evidence of something I, what, overlooked?! As you write, nice try!

To me, this thread should have turned yellow a very long time ago. That it hasn't, and that attempts are being made to justify this claptrap, is somewhat disheartening.

Please have the last word. This will be my first and last post in this thread. Doesn't merit two more minutes.

Don

[G Man]

On come on Don... It's about time we speak and reveal what experts hide for too long! Wave, you found it, the most kept secret in the BJ community. Could you please move this thread on a private board, cause we know the casinos have always an eye here! Shit, we're done, this game is over!

[BoSox]

And, you're offering this up as evidence of something I, what, overlooked?! As you write, nice try!

To me, this thread should have turned yellow a very long time ago. That it hasn't, and that attempts are being made to justify this claptrap, is somewhat disheartening.

Please have the last word. This will be my first and last post in this thread. Doesn't merit two more minutes.

Don

But Don, he broke new ground.

[Wave]

60 MPH is 60 MPH regardless if you are driving a Ford or a Caddy.

Which weighs more, a pound of gold or a pound of feathers?

The differences between Hourly EVs of $25.42, $25.47, or $25.48, all with a 1K Unit Bankroll ROR of .61 are not statistically different. The sims demonstrate it does not matter if you risk 50, 100, or 1M units (input) for each shoe you play to reach the same Hourly EV (result).


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[Midwest Player]

Wave, this thread has even made it to other forums. Freightman's old buddy even showed up to give it a shout out. Don't know why he isn't posting here anymore.
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...s-in-Blackjack

[Dbs6582]

Which weighs more, a pound of gold or a pound of feathers?

Wave, is this a trick question? I’m going with a pound of gold. Am I right?

Midwest Player, I decided to post here since I saw an easy question I might know the answer to.

[Wave]

And, you're offering this up as evidence of something I, what, overlooked?! As you write, nice try!

To me, this thread should have turned yellow a very long time ago. That it hasn't, and that attempts are being made to justify this claptrap, is somewhat disheartening.

Please have the last word. This will be my first and last post in this thread. Doesn't merit two more minutes.

Don

No discussion of shoe bankroll, or the required amount of shoe bankroll you must risk in order to reach max Hourly EV, or LDR in BJA III Chapter 8, where you discuss entire and trip bankroll requirments and ROR. I'm not saying you overlooked these ideas, but I am saying you did not address them in BJA III Chapter 8 which is I think the most likely place to find find them if you did address them in BJA III. If you did not overlook them, please enlighten me and state where you did address them...I understand it may have been elsewhere in BJA III, or somewhere other than BJA III.

On a side note, I do find it odd that you state on pg. 130 of BJA III: "For a typical junket-type trip, where I expect to play 20-25 hours, I will usually bring 150 units of bank with me. Notice that, regardless of the game (2-deck or 6-deck), I am playing at about the 10% level of losing the entire stake. That is my comfort zone. You're entitled to a different one, but I haven't lost too many trip bankrolls these past twenty years!" But you get heartburn when I demonstrate one can reach full Hourly EV by risking only 50 or 100 units for ONE 6 deck shoe...that's either one third, or two thirds of your entire trip roll!

Additionally, you admitted you play with 150 units not just as your trip roll, but that would also be your shoe roll since you hold the opinion that a stop loss has a negative effect on Hourly EV. So 150 units works for 20-25 hours of play and/or a single shoe, but 50 or 100 units does not work for a single shoe? The Hourly EV for a 150 unit shoe roll in my example is the same as the Hourly EV for a 50 or 100 hour shoe roll; so is the 1K Unit ROR. Don't believe me? My methodology is there in my OP, run 3 sims and prove me wrong.

You're beginning to fail the smell test. If you can't run 3 sims to prove an annoying troll wrong and put him in his place, then you will fail the smell test.

The gauntlet has been thrown down sir, your move.

[Wave]

Wave, this thread has even made it to other forums. Freightman's old buddy even showed up to give it a shout out. Don't know why he isn't posting here anymore.
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...s-in-Blackjack

His written characterization of my posts appear to indicate a low level of reading comprehension.