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Thread: Sim Results While Employing a Very Low Number of Rounds

  1. #1


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    Sim Results While Employing a Very Low Number of Rounds

    I think I know how people will respond to the following. And I realize this post may end up on the "Disadvantaged" forum.

    I realize that using anything less than "X" number of rounds (X = 100 million or so?) is meaningless. But I have run a particular sim more than once, and in the very, very early stage of the sim (like up to 25,000 rounds), the results ("advantage" or "E.V.," I forget which one is correct) seem to consistently be positive.

    However, when I run a sim with very, very similar parameters to the "particular sim" mentioned above, the results at, say, the 25,000 round stage are much more in line with what one would predict (i.e. usually negative player outcome).

    Again, I realize 25,000 rounds is meaningless. As such, though, what does it mean if I CONSISTENTLY run the same sim and I CONSISTENTLY end up with a positive player outcome very, very early on in the sim, whereas other sims reflect more predictable outcomes very, very early on in the sim.

    Here comes the VooDoo, and my main question: Is it ever possible that better than expected outcomes for the player taking place very, very early in a sim reflect not variance but rather some sort of systematic mechanism that is not strong enough to withstand, say, 100 million rounds but is strong enough to withstand, say, 25,000 rounds?

    Thank you.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    <snip>Here comes the VooDoo, and my main question: Is it ever possible that better than expected outcomes for the player taking place very, very early in a sim reflect not variance but rather some sort of systematic mechanism that is not strong enough to withstand, say, 100 million rounds but is strong enough to withstand, say, 25,000 rounds?

    Thank you.

    Overkill,

    No.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    I think I know how people will respond to the following. And I realize this post may end up on the "Disadvantaged" forum.

    I realize that using anything less than "X" number of rounds (X = 100 million or so?) is meaningless. But I have run a particular sim more than once, and in the very, very early stage of the sim (like up to 25,000 rounds), the results ("advantage" or "E.V.," I forget which one is correct) seem to consistently be positive.

    However, when I run a sim with very, very similar parameters to the "particular sim" mentioned above, the results at, say, the 25,000 round stage are much more in line with what one would predict (i.e. usually negative player outcome).

    Again, I realize 25,000 rounds is meaningless. As such, though, what does it mean if I CONSISTENTLY run the same sim and I CONSISTENTLY end up with a positive player outcome very, very early on in the sim, whereas other sims reflect more predictable outcomes very, very early on in the sim.

    Here comes the VooDoo, and my main question: Is it ever possible that better than expected outcomes for the player taking place very, very early in a sim reflect not variance but rather some sort of systematic mechanism that is not strong enough to withstand, say, 100 million rounds but is strong enough to withstand, say, 25,000 rounds?

    Thank you.
    While there are is no "mechanism" at work that should make your results positive in the early going, it isn't necessarily surprising that you might see a positive result in a negative-expectation game at some point early on. Clearly, if you're going to see any positive result at all in a negative-e.v. game, you're most surely going to see it in the short run, and not after 100 million hands have been played.

    Don

  4. #4


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    As unreliable as the conclusions are, it is refreshing that somebody out there is still searching for the one in a million chance that there just might be another advantage play that does not involve card counting. Unfortunately, if you do find it, the casino will do everything in their power to prevent you from using it if you make it public. Overkill, your efforts are refreshing.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Daniels View Post
    As unreliable as the conclusions are, it is refreshing that somebody out there is still searching for the one in a million chance that there just might be another advantage play that does not involve card counting. Unfortunately, if you do find it, the casino will do everything in their power to prevent you from using it if you make it public. Overkill, your efforts are refreshing.
    This reply doesn't help at all. There are many advantage plays that don't involve card counting, but the one described by Overkill certainly isn't one of them! And, his efforts aren't "refreshing"; rather, they are a waste of time.

    Don

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    what does it mean if I CONSISTENTLY run the same sim and I CONSISTENTLY end up with a positive player outcome very, very early on in the sim
    If your system by chance is a form of a Multi level Martingale (double after each loss), it is not as unlikely as many would think to be ahead after 25k rounds in a negative EV game.

    With a martingale system that runs many levels deep (10 plus levels, doubling after each loss), you will see more positive outcomes in the short run.

    Assuming a Martingale system with 10 levels, depending on the rules, the 10th consecutive loss will come about 1 in 600 times. With a 25,000 round sim, it would be expected that you reach that 10th loss about 42 times. The 10th consecutive hand plays a major roll. If you get to the top of the progression and only lose 30 times vs. the expected 42 you will have excellent results. However, if you swing the other way and lose 52 total progressions when 42 are expected, it will be disastrous. So ultimately there are a VERY SMALL amount of hands that come into play that swing it one way or the other.

    If one is playing a deep level double up progression, Even with 25k rounds, it only takes a FEW KEY HANDS to go the other way, for the results to be drastically different.

    As we know, in the long run one will get absolutely clobbered with a -EV double up progression system, but in the short run it has massive variance and can stay positive for long periods of time.

    With any progression make sure to SIM enough rounds to get accurate numbers.
    Last edited by BankerCA; 01-25-2020 at 05:21 PM.

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