"Preserving The Win"

[Wave]

A lot of members here like to give Z shit for his "preserving the win" comments, but this is completely unwarranted and IMHO is a manifestation of their ignorance regarding the value of preserving a win to reduce ROR. Contrary to their misconceptions, it IS important and valuable to know when to stop playing when on a trip. The data provided below is based on a sim I am currently running (now at 6B hands played) and is evidence that "preserving the win" can reduce ROR if based on sim generated empirical data and not on emotion.

First a caveat, this data is only accurate for a 6 deck S17 LS 3:2 DAS DOA 75% pen head to head game employing a 1:4 spread, ODPs, and the REKO 6 Deck Full playing strategy. Also, the sim was set for a forced shuffle when Wonging out. Each variable that is changed will change the ROR calculations, which illuminates the importance of incorporating the use of CV Data or CVCX to analyze your play. A total BR of 1000 units has a Simple ROR of .28%, but I and many others are not comfortable walking around with my total BR when I play, so I use 80 units or 20 max bets for a TR and consider one day a trip since I primarily play within a couple of hours drive of home. Simple ROR means no constraints such as number of hands played or goal...and a goal is a form of preserving the win.

A Simple ROR for a TR of 80 units is 62.43%, which is obviously unacceptable. How can that ROR be mitigated? By employing a limit to the number of hands played on the trip, or a win goal, or both. Using just the number of hands played of 430 hands reduces the ROR to 5.869%. Using just a trip goal of +12 units reduces ROR to 10.19%; +8 units = 7.11%; +4 units = 3.73%. If you add in a number of hands played limit of 430 hands with a trip goal, the ROR drops even further; +12 units = 4.26%; +8 units = 3.22%; +4 units = 1.95%.

Why 430 hands played for this analysis?

Avg number of cards played per hand = 2.7; 6 decks = 312 cards; 312 x .75 pen = 234 cards; 234 cards / 2.7 cards per hand = 86 hands; 86 hands / head to head game = 43 player hands per shoe; 43 hands per shoe x 10 shoes per trip = 430 hands played.

I know this will piss off some members, so let the berating begin, but the data is solid and so is the conclusion...when employed based on statistical analysis and not emotion, preserving the win in the form of a trip goal does reduce ROR.