Although basic strategy chart show that soft 19 (A,8) should double on dealer 6 for H17, 6-8 deck, my calculation shows that soft 19 (A,8) should double on dealer 6 until TC>=8
odds 19 against 6 is 0.7266 ( winning 22.66%)
odds Hit 19 against 6 is 0.615 ( winning 11.5%)
Since 11.5%*2 =23% slightly more than 22.66%, A,8 should double on dealer 6.
Last edited by BJcountingmaster; 01-02-2020 at 11:41 AM.
well for a S17 game standing returns 0.495977, whereas doubling returns0.479599. Obviously with H17 we will get different returns but that should be enough to show how way off you are. I also don't see why a .5 return is considered break even in your calculations.
H17
Dealer 6: Probability
Bust 17 18 19 20 21
0.439467 0.114838 0.114838 0.114838 0.110286 0.105734
Soft19 Double 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 0.076923 0.076923 0.076923 0.076923 0.076923 0.076923 0.076923 0.307692 0.076923 0.076923
0.033805 0.033805 0.033805 0.033805 0.033805 0.038222 0.047056 0.223557 0.064548 0.072856
Hit/Double Stand 0.6153 0.726561
Last edited by BJcountingmaster; 01-02-2020 at 11:39 AM.
If you would like to ask questions here about whether or not calculations you are doing are correct, that's perfectly fine. But, could you please not post things as facts, when all of this is worked out to SIX decimal places in the BJA3 Appendix A for every conceivable player holding, against every dealer upcard, for every number of decks, and for S17 and H17.Originally Posted by BJcountingmaster
Asking questions to further your knowledge of the game is fine; trying to reinvent the wheel and posting what you consider to be "facts," but that aren't, is somewhat less welcome.
Don
If you really were to double down "until TC >= 8", you should also double for TC = 0, so this would be no contradiction to Basic Strategy. In fact, there are play indexes e.g. for REKO, demanding doubling down on (A, 8) versus 5 and 6 for relatively low counts. Stanford Wong's "Professional Blackjack" says for Hi-Lo count and 4 decks, you should double down at about TC = 1 versus 5 and 6 for S17, and at TC = 1 resp. TC = 0 for H17, so the TC must only slightly be over zero, far from TC 8. And these indexes are not reverse, so you should not switch back to standing for higher true counts (which makes sense, because with many Tens still to come, your Soft 19 is more and more likely to persist a 19 (Hard 19) for doubling down, whereas the dealer is more and more likely to bust with his 5 or 6).
Last edited by PinkChip; 01-02-2020 at 04:20 PM.
I initially make a mistake in calculation,
So @ TC=0 Double A8 on 6 is slightly better than stand. As TC increase to more and more positive, Double A8 on 6 become much better than stand.
This question came from one hand of my own play:
I got A8 versus dealer 6, I doubled and got A87 (hard 16) then stopped. Dealer 6T and then got 5 to 21. The whole table blamed me on that double hand, saying that I should not double at all. Otherwise dealer should have been busted with 6T7
Last edited by BJcountingmaster; 01-02-2020 at 05:57 PM.
Sometimes the reverse happens, the card you take saves the whole table. Sometimes, the dealer busts anyway and ploppies admire you fo4 doubling your win.
When they say something like “the dealer would have busted”, you say “this casino pays me to make such plays, I am doing my job!”.
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