Quote Originally Posted by PinkChip View Post
6/13 (start on Hard 14 and draw 8,9,10,J,Q,K) +
1/13 * 7/13 (start on Hard 14, then draw an Ace to Hard 15, then draw 7,8,9,10,J,Q,K) +
1/13 * 8/13 (start on Hard 14, then draw a Two to Hard 16, then draw 6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K) +
1/13 * 1/13 * 8/13 (start on Hard 14, then draw two Aces to Hard 16, then draw 6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K)

= 6/13 + 7/169 + 8/169 + 8/2197
= 1014/2197 + 91/2197 + 104/2197 + 8/2197
= 1217/2197
= 55.4 %
Thank you, mate I was thinking of it the same, then made the edit because I thought 6/13 stays the same if we start on 14 but the thing is, we've already counted that probability in by writing 6/13 and your calculations make sense to me because we can't assume the probability of bust remains static no matter what. In that case, the resources on the internet were correct about the 56% (excluding the second screenshot of mine).

Thank you very much PinkChip If the other people agree with the calculations, please let me know