Denver Trip Report - And an open letter to the AP I met in Blackhawk

[RUMIYODIN]

Background:
I recently made a trip to Denver to visit a friend who lately has been feeling down in the dumps. It's been some time since we've seen each other, and I decided to surprise her by showing up at her doorstep with a bag packed for the week.

Since I showed up unannounced, she still needed to go to work, meaning I had free time during the working hours of the day to make my way to the local casinos offered in Blackhawk and Central City. With a bit of research, I selected one in Blackhawk that looked nice that offered decent rules. Conveniently I was not far from the local shuttle that runs from Denver to the casinos.

Scouting & Table Conditions:
Walking into my casino of choice, I didn't immediately sit down at the first table I saw. There were two dealers offering the with the same rules, so my criteria is penetration. The cut card at the first table was a weak 4/6 (66.67% penetration) while the second dealer offered a more generous 5/6 (83.33% pen). Naturally, I sit down with the second dealer.

The table is a 6D/S17/DAS/nRSA/nSurr for a house edge of 0.44%. Table limits are $5-100 (Colorado state law). I buy in with $200, immediately prompting one of the pit critters offering me a player's card, which I decline.

Meeting the AP:
Since it's a weekday and the casino is mostly empty, I played heads up with the dealer for a few shoes. The count stays close to zero, never prompting me to raise my bet. I'm shooting the shit with the dealer, asking about other casinos in the area I considered also playing.

Around this point, a middle-aged guy walks up with a beer in hand observing the table. He stands there talking to the dealer and myself, spewing some nonsense about politics, trying to sound funny by making jokes. While slightly annoyed (and partially distracted), the count begins to climb.

It's now TC +1. I slightly raise my bet. I continue play and a large clump of small cards come out of the shoe.

It's TC +2. I continually raise my bet and the middle-aged guy (MAG) goes quiet. He silently observes some more. More clumps of small cards follow out of the shoe.

The count rises to TC +3. MAG sits down at third base, buys in for $300, and plays 3 spots for max bets of $100 each. He proceeds to pull two blackjacks and a stiff hand that eventually totals for 20. Dealer busts. MAG stays quiet.

MAG stays at the table with me as the count fluctuates both up and down. Aside the obvious betting patterns we mirror with each other, the pit and dealer seem quite oblivious to what is going on. This goes on for several shoes, and his pile of chips fluctuate up and down, eventually prompting him to buy in for a few hundred more at several occasions, eventually buying in close to $3000.

While all this is happening, MAG kept getting bad cards and repeatedly lost despite high counts. I was more fortunate as variance kept kind to me. MAG played correctly, deviating from BS at the appropriate indices, only buying insurance at high counts, and so on. MAG was doing the right thing the entire time, yet kept getting crushed.

MAG start to take this personally, acting emotional, and very sincerely hurt by what is happening. He starts cursing at the dealer, slamming the table when he pulls yet another 14 on a TC +4 against a dealer 9. He starts to play irrationally, making uncalled deviations, random side bets -- MAG is now gambling and proceeds to keep losing.

The Lesson:
MAG did everything right to a point, but let his losses get to him. The casino is not something you should view as a personal ATM that you visit when you want money. The casino will sometimes win against you even if you do everything right. For APs, what I believe separates long term winners from losing players is how you handle the times you lose.

You need to focus only on playing correctly, regardless of outcome. You do this and you will eventually come out on top. Focusing only on short term wins like a greedy hog will give you same fate that awaits all hogs. They get slaughtered.

If you're reading this, my suggestion to you is to control your emotions, not let it control you. Or play the part of the actor but keep doing the right thing as you initially did. We're playing small stakes and a $3k loss is nothing in the long run. Set your sights on the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, not the quarter that glistens in the wrong direction.