This is why I like wonging out over wonging in. It‘s very easy to spot a back counter but harder to spot a guy wonging out.Originally Posted by Meistro123
My above answer on Wonging out was short and brief but there is much more to it. Every negative EV hand that you play needs to be made up with your spread. The almost play all "TC-4" Wongout approach that you have been using requires an even greater spread to make up the difference. What's the consequence of using that required bigger spread? Higher variance/risk with a much greater chance of being noticed. Blackjack is tough enough, check out the negative TC frequencies percentages and the corresponding EV stats, versus the positives and you will see what I mean. Think of it this way, the house represents one heavy son of a bitch sitting on one end of the seesaw who has your skinny ass at his mercy unless you use your brains.
Fine, but, contingent upon if you are not over betting your playing bank which would be another possible detriment to ruin.
Last edited by BoSox; 11-06-2019 at 06:09 PM.
Try to start a fresh shoe. I’ll often watch a few rounds fussing around like I’m not sure I want to play. If the count dives right away I just wander off to look for another. Otherwise jump in. If you are lucky the count will already be rising.
Lots of options to wong out naturally. First, pull out your phone. They will tell you to step away to use it, then you oblige them. Keep an eye on the count and pop back in if it’s favorable. If it keeps diving complain that work or whoever wont leave you alone and move on. Tell, them you will be back in a few mins like you are worried they will miss you. If the shoe is a lost cause, time a trip to the bathroom or get refreshments and show up for the start of the next shoe. Ask them to reserve your spot, they often will. Tell them you have to take a craps break, you are trying to get good at it.
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I was miscalculating my wong out strategy in CVCX by not turning on “shuffle on exit” so my numbers to justify my wong at a -4 strategy are way off. Wonging at a -1 is highly optimal but would be tedious if I get a player’s card. Wonging at a -2 is an $8 an hour difference between wonging at a -1 for me but wonging at a -2 would happen less often, seem less suspicious, and allow for the player’s card. I haven’t simmed wonging at -3 yet but I will tonight after work.
I’d probably be over betting my bankroll with that bet spread. How does this one look?
0: $5
1: $15
2: $50
3: $80
Or should my maximum bet be at a true 4?
Also, what would you recommend if it was a $10 table?
Last edited by RatherNotGiveMyRealName; 11-07-2019 at 12:39 AM.
Many books recommend to put the max bet out at TC 4, so maybe
TC 0: bet 5 dollars
TC 1: bet 10 dollars (or 2 x 5 dollars, if allowed)
TC 2: bet 20 dollars (or 2 x 10 dollars)
TC 3: bet 40 dollars (or 2 x 20 dollars)
TC 4: bet 80 dollars (or 2 x 40 dollars)
would be better, and also allow for parlaying, namely doubling your bet after a win. This way, you could just leave your chips in the betting circle after the dealer pays your win, which looks more natural. And maybe the doubling scheme makes you more look like a progressive system (Martingale) player, as long as they do only watch your bets without counting themselves.
Last edited by PinkChip; 11-07-2019 at 05:06 AM.
Post #25
In post #32 you answer:
"I’d probably be over betting my bankroll with that bet spread. How does this one look?
0: $5
1: $15
2: $50
3: $80"
What is this a joke? You are overbetting the first above example and then you want to increase your bet, it does not work that way.
"Or should my maximum bet be at a true 4?"
In previous posts, you said that the rules that you play against are extremely good along with the cuts, so raising the TC top bet to +4 would be a good move when playing on a short limited budget. A BETTER WAY would be to not play while you save up enough money where you are not worried about a few negative session swings.
"Also, what would you recommend if it was a $10 table?"
ONLY PLAY when the $5 tables are open.
Last edited by BoSox; 11-07-2019 at 06:27 AM.
Yes, this is a big joke and you are on the next episode of “What Would You Do?”
No, when I said that I may be over betting my bankroll, I was referring to my original spread of betting $25 or $30 at a true 1 and that I may want to ramp slower and throw in a bet of something more like $15. Sometimes, I’m not able to play the $5 tables because they are either not open or full. However, I will seek them out if possible. This place does allow betting two hands at table minimum. You are right about ramping to a true 4 and I only ramped to a true 3 because I liked the aspect of betting in increments of $25 at a 1, 2, and 3.
These are givens for my spread, now I just need my true 2 and true 3, I’ll sim and try to find out what works:
0: $5/$10 depending on table min
1: $15
2: $
3: $
4: $80
I just ran some sims and I'm wondering if you guys have an opinion on this betting strategy (I play-all two hands and wong out at a -2):
True 0: $5 or $10 depending on table min
True 1: $15
True 2: $30
True 3: $60
True 4: $80
It seems much more natural to be able to parlay between $15, $30 and $60, and this spread gives me an agreeable win rate per hour and RoR. Thoughts?
Last edited by RatherNotGiveMyRealName; 11-09-2019 at 01:35 AM.
Since you play two hands all the time you should state that when you ask questions.
When you are playing the $10 tables and using the same exact spread moneywise as the $5 tables, in my opinion, it is a gross mistake.
Last edited by BoSox; 11-08-2019 at 07:05 AM.
You should already know that people get backed off for moving their bet with the count. Optimal is what will protect you from countermeasures and maintain a reasonable EV.
Your absolutes are a dead give away. Think about it more, your ramps are too simplistic. They may work with CVCX/ROR/EV stuff but not so much with cover. There are some ways to achieve levels of cover and EV. Generally, they will likely require a somewhat higher variance but are well worth it if they will improve your longevity.
If you can't play, EV = 0. And if you are a successful player, you will likely not be able to play long term. Consider what is important before EV = 0 becomes a reality.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
Longevity and cover is more important to me than variance and risk, what sort of strategy would you recommend to increase longevity? I’ve been told by others that at the red chip level, I don’t need any playing or betting cover. What are your thoughts on this?
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