Optimal vs Simple Betting Ramp

[RatherNotGiveMyRealName]

Do not make a $65 bet where if you surrender or get a blackjack the dealer has to use a $2.50 pink chip to complete their work, and then you will have been paid off in three colors. Make an $80 bet instead of $75, and $60, or $70 rather than $65. Those times when you do have a pink chip don't make $7.50,$12.50, $17.50, or $22.50 bets as then you may also end up with some white chips, although, you may get a higher payout based on house policy.

That’s a good point, I think I’ll start throwing a red chip on my max bet of $75.

[BoSox]

My win rate and risk both increase with the simplified betting strategy but I do like the idea that it may look more natural to just toss a red or a green out there in counts of 0 or 1, then I can parlay/chip up to two or three greens on counts of two or three. That just seems more natural looking for me to do on a regular basis for longevity on these long sessions.

I could also bet like this:

True 0: One Red
True 1: Three Reds
True 2: One Green
True 3: Two Greens
True 4: Three Greens


This does decrease my win rate (and RoR) and looks a little less natural between counts of 0 and 1.

In the first sentence above you mention possibly putting out a green chip bet at a TC of 0 that would be a big mistake by betting a five-unit bet into a negative EV situation, while playing "for the most part" all hands and considering you are only using two $75 bets as your max bets. Further down you are considering going from a $15 bet at a TC of +1 to a quarter bet at a TC of +2 a $10 increase, pathetic. I think you need to re-examine all of this based on the real changes in EV win-loss percentages per true counts.

[ZeeBabar]

In the first sentence above you mention possibly putting out a green chip bet at a TC of 0 that would be a big mistake by betting a five-unit bet into a negative EV situation, while playing "for the most part" all hands and considering you are only using two $75 bets as your max bets. Further down you are considering going from a $15 bet at a TC of +1 to a quarter bet at a TC of +2 a $10 increase, pathetic. I think you need to re-examine all of this based on the real changes in EV win-loss percentages per true counts.

Excellent!

[RatherNotGiveMyRealName]

In the first sentence above you mention possibly putting out a green chip bet at a TC of 0 that would be a big mistake by betting a five-unit bet into a negative EV situation, while playing "for the most part" all hands and considering you are only using two $75 bets as your max bets. Further down you are considering going from a $15 bet at a TC of +1 to a quarter bet at a TC of +2 a $10 increase, pathetic. I think you need to re-examine all of this based on the real changes in EV win-loss percentages per true counts.

No, I would be tossing a red out at true counts of 0 and a green out at true counts of 1. I should have added the word “respectively” to indicate that. You are right that an increase from 3 units to 5 units (at a true count from 1 to 2) is pathetic and that’s why I’m looking to change it. Potentially to a 1, 5, 10, 15 unit spread at true counts of 0, 1, 2, and 3 respectively.

[EyeBRollin]

How about just replacing the reds altogether with backcounting?

[RatherNotGiveMyRealName]

How about just replacing the reds altogether with backcounting?

It seems extremely awkward for me to back count at this casino. I’ve tried and gotten a small amount of heat. It just seems unnatural. I will go home tonight after work and sim it though. I am curious to see the return it would bring.

[JBourne]

Simple bets that keep the stack size consistent. Only red & green payoffs to avoid the pinks. Use greens on the base. Red chip on top for all but two of them. Fine tune the ramp using these values. For a $5 unit this gets you up to 1:20 spread. Even better, spread to two hands.

10 = 2 chips
20 = 4 chips
30 = 2 chips
40 = 4 chips
50 = 2 chips
60 = 4 chips
80 = 4 chips
100 = 4 chips

[RatherNotGiveMyRealName]

Simple bets that keep the stack size consistent. Only red & green payoffs to avoid the pinks. Use greens on the base. Red chip on top for all but two of them. Fine tune the ramp using these values. For a $5 unit this gets you up to 1:20 spread. Even better, spread to two hands.

10 = 2 chips
20 = 4 chips
30 = 2 chips
40 = 4 chips
50 = 2 chips
60 = 4 chips
80 = 4 chips
100 = 4 chips

How does this ramp look to you?

True 0 and under: $5

True 1: $30

True 2: $50

True 3: $80


I am hesitant to then ramp to a $100 bet at a true 4 because that brings the spread to a 1:20, which is much more threatening to casino staff, and they will also then yell out “checks play” on me. On top of this, I’m already playing-all two hands.

[BoSox]

How does this ramp look to you?

True 0 and under: $5

True 1: $30

True 2: $50

True 3: $80

Please stop worrying about how many colors you are using and instead think about Wonging out at least by TC of -2, the reason being wasted time is losing money, find another shoe. At a TC of +1 does not warrant six times bet jump from $5 to $30, "going back and forth from 1 unit to 6 will get noticed that your real unit is not $5" at most make it a $15 bet and don't worry about possibly getting pink in the payoff. At a TC of +2 go from $15 to $35 or $40 which is slightly high. When the TC hits +3 make your $80 bet. Consider not playing two hands all the time and do it only on your max bets at two hands of $60, or $80 based on 73% of whatever your real top bet is.

Ps: When $5 is your unit or minimum bet you will always end up with plenty of pinks anyway.

[JBourne]

Please stop worrying about how many colors you are using and instead think about Wonging out at least by TC of -2, the reason being wasted time is losing money, find another shoe. At a TC of +1 does not warrant six times bet jump from $5 to $30, "going back and forth from 1 unit to 6 will get noticed that your real unit is not $5" at most make it a $15 bet and don't worry about possibly getting pink in the payoff. At a TC of +2 go from $15 to $35 or $40 which is slightly high. When the TC hits +3 make your $80 bet. Consider not playing two hands all the time and do it only on your max bets at two hands of $60, or $80 based on 73% of whatever your real top bet is.

He's correct. If you want to do better, figure out how to avoid most of the negative counts, they degrade your results quite a bit. If you avoid negative counts your optimal betting ramp will change and your risk goes way down.

If you insist on playing all, then do it as efficiently as possible. If you insist on playing two hands all the time, then here are some considerations:
TC < 1: 2x5
TC1: 2x10 (maybe parlay up to 2x20 as you approach TC2)
TC2: 2x40 (you can work up to it. Start with 2x30 and chip up on wins.)
TC3: 2x60 (optimal is 2x70 but its big pile of chips. Start with 60 and chip up to 75 or 80 if you win)
TC4+: 2x80 (let your max fluctuate with wins and losses. Down to 75, up to 90)

I agree, don't sweat the pinks, just don't bet with them. I try to avoid accumulating a bunch. $5 or $15 min there is no avoiding it.

[Meistro123]

It seems extremely awkward for me to back count at this casino. I’ve tried and gotten a small amount of heat. It just seems unnatural. I will go home tonight after work and sim it though. I am curious to see the return it would bring.

Yah I wouldn't stand around watching the cards, that is kind of obvious. Watch for max one round then sit or bounce based on the count.

[RatherNotGiveMyRealName]

Please stop worrying about how many colors you are using and instead think about Wonging out at least by TC of -2, the reason being wasted time is losing money, find another shoe. At a TC of +1 does not warrant six times bet jump from $5 to $30, "going back and forth from 1 unit to 6 will get noticed that your real unit is not $5" at most make it a $15 bet and don't worry about possibly getting pink in the payoff. At a TC of +2 go from $15 to $35 or $40 which is slightly high. When the TC hits +3 make your $80 bet. Consider not playing two hands all the time and do it only on your max bets at two hands of $60, or $80 based on 73% of whatever your real top bet is.

Ps: When $5 is your unit or minimum bet you will always end up with plenty of pinks anyway.

I’ve simmed both wonging out and wonging in and it seems to me that wonging out is an incredible tool that can be done with impunity if you have the right act. Wonging out at a -2 seems to be the best for me when it comes to win rate and looking natural.

You’re probably right about the ramping to $30 at a true 1. My risk also sky rockets. I’ll consider going to just $15 instead.

How’s this ramp?

0: $5
1: $15
2: $40
3: $80

[RatherNotGiveMyRealName]

He's correct. If you want to do better, figure out how to avoid most of the negative counts, they degrade your results quite a bit. If you avoid negative counts your optimal betting ramp will change and your risk goes way down.

If you insist on playing all, then do it as efficiently as possible. If you insist on playing two hands all the time, then here are some considerations:
TC < 1: 2x5
TC1: 2x10 (maybe parlay up to 2x20 as you approach TC2)
TC2: 2x40 (you can work up to it. Start with 2x30 and chip up on wins.)
TC3: 2x60 (optimal is 2x70 but its big pile of chips. Start with 60 and chip up to 75 or 80 if you win)
TC4+: 2x80 (let your max fluctuate with wins and losses. Down to 75, up to 90)

I agree, don't sweat the pinks, just don't bet with them. I try to avoid accumulating a bunch. $5 or $15 min there is no avoiding it.

Thanks for the advice. Do you think that a red-chipper like me playing rated needs to use any betting cover?