Consecutive losing sessions

**BJGenius007** · 11-01-2019, 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

I wonder what the odds are of 14 face cards coming out in a row on a 6 deck shoe?

It happened either hand-shuffled or ASM. My argument is that it happens once in weeks playing hand-shuffled but six, seven shoes in one night at ASM table. Not fourteen face cards coming out in a row but thirteen face cards and two accent cards in a row. And often the two accent cards are like two and nine or three and eight. If the dealer gets the first accent card, he sweeps the table by getting to 21. And the effect of two concentrated face card sequences makes the dealer easier to make hand in the rest of the shoe. And in the past week, there are two friendly dealers telling me the same thing. In their 8 hour session, he made most hands in most of hands of almost every shoe, either by two face cards or lots of small cards together. One told me almost no one win at his table for one week. I didn't get surprised when they told me because it matched my expectation.

**Dog Hand** · 11-01-2019, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

I wonder what the odds are of 14 face cards coming out in a row on a 6 deck shoe?<snip>

Midwest Player,

I get about 29,531,367 to 1 against, assuming "face cards" also includes the pip 10's.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

**Midwest Player** · 11-01-2019, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

Midwest Player,

I get about 29,531,367 to 1 against, assuming "face cards" also includes the pip 10's.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thanks for the update.

**ZeeBabar** · 11-01-2019, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

Midwest Player,

I get about 29,531,367 to 1 against, assuming "face cards" also includes the pip 10's.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Yup, been playing for 6+ years regularly and never complained about ASM’s until my post about extreme pen, absence of heat and weird, almost 30 million to one odd sequence coming out, repeated high counts, both positive and negative happenning shoe after shoe.

**ShipTheCookies** · 11-01-2019, 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

Yup, been playing for 6+ years regularly and never complained about ASM’s until my post about extreme pen, absence of heat and weird, almost 30 million to one odd sequence coming out, repeated high counts, both positive and negative happenning shoe after shoe.

Someone is finally starting to listen to Zender.

**ZeeBabar** · 11-01-2019, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies

Someone is finally starting to listen to Zender.

What did Zander say and where (link)?

**DSchles** · 11-01-2019, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

I get about 29,531,367 to 1 against, assuming "face cards" also includes the pip 10's.

Problem is, the OP never said that this was off the top of the shoe. So, what if all the small cards had come out, and there were nothing left but tens?

Reduces the odds somewhat, to like ... 1 in 1.

Just sayin'.

Don

**21forme** · 11-01-2019, 01:23 PM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

Midwest Player,

I get about 29,531,367 to 1 against, assuming "face cards" also includes the pip 10's.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Doghand, the original situation was in a high count, so the odds are better. I was once playing in a monster count. Had 2 20's, split the tens 4x for each hand and got a total of 6 Ts and 2 aces. I couldn't keep from laughing (as I grabbed my chips and headed for the hills).

**DSchles** · 11-01-2019, 01:58 PM

As I was saying. ...

Don

**JBourne** · 11-01-2019, 03:01 PM

Originally Posted by 21forme

Doghand, the original situation was in a high count, so the odds are better. I was once playing in a monster count. Had 2 20's, split the tens 4x for each hand and got a total of 6 Ts and 2 aces. I couldn't keep from laughing (as I grabbed my chips and headed for the hills).

I played a monster count a few days ago. +23 with one deck remaining. What's the probability of that? I could see the cut card about to come out, the pen was really good. I expect ~34 (65%) out of the remaining pack to be tens because I don't track aces. The next five cards come out and none are high cards. I am staring at two max bet hands of 15 vs. 8. That's <0.5% probability of that sequence? I played the deviation and stood on both hands, fully expecting to lose when the dealer flips an ace or ten. The dealer flipped a 7 for 15 total. Now that's <0.2% probability of the sequence? But each card is an independent event and the probability of not flipping an 10/A after I stood was ~28%. The dealer then busted with 10. It was the last round in the shoe and I scooped chips and scooted knowing I just got lucky on two bad hands and a very improbable sequence.

Are we really surprised when 10+ little cards come out of an ice-cold shoe? Seems like I have watched a dealer rake a table like that. Getting 10+ face cards out on the table in a row would be worthy of a picture for sure, but it would just go on my list of bad beats (or ties as it may be). I have a photo of me re-splitting 6-6 vs. 6 until I had seven hands. Gotta love unlimited re-splits. The count was neutral with 3.5 decks remaining. I lost them all. What were the odds of that entire sequence happening? It doesn't matter.

**PinkChip** · 11-01-2019, 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

Midwest Player,

I get about 29,531,367 to 1 against, assuming "face cards" also includes the pip 10's.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Hi Dog Hand,

I get the exact same result, by computing

(96 * 95 * 94 * ... * 83)
-----------------------------
(312 * 311 * ... * 300 * 299)

(14 factors in numerator and denominiator each).

**What me worry** · 11-01-2019, 04:08 PM

This question would get a better answer from a loving grandma or a psychiatrist.

**Midwest Player** · 11-02-2019, 01:18 PM

Zee, it looks like you deleted the post where you named the three casinos. If I remember only two of those casinos were under the same ownership. It looks like the third was under different ownership. It seems weird casinos under two different owners would try anything hanky-panky.