Consecutive losing sessions

[ZeeBabar]

Zee - I can recommended some casinos that cut 2.5 decks off of 6, if you'd like. I can also recommended some CSM games.

21forme, the point is to understand why it’s happenning, whether it’s just randomness or something more sinister. This is a thread about losing streaks and over the last seven sessions, my 2 wins total under $300, my losses total $4.4k and I had never seen 14 straight 10’s and the dealer not picking up the hand, being amazed and getting neighbour dealers to look at the table. Counting is fun seems to think the forum should regurgitate what one finds in books. As you know, I often share my immediate feelings after trips or losses. I was pissed off as I lost 3 rounds and 6 hands of my max 2 x $80 bet in a row.

[21forme]

I was pissed off as I lost 3 rounds and 6 hands of my max 2 x $80 bet in a row.

Go back and read Don's posts about streaks and statistics he posted last week. Better yet, print them out and tape them right above your computer monitor.

My point is you still don't understand the math of the game. 3 rounds/6 hands is NOTHING in the overall scheme of play. When you have deep pen, you will see bigger counts and naturally have MORE variance, despite EV being higher. I know more than one (excellent) player who were in negative territory for longer than 6 months. Hopefully you didn't freak out and cut your bet in the big counts.

[EyeBRollin]

I’ve only won 2 of my last 15 sessions. It is disheartening but it can only get better right?

[BJGenius007]

I am not asking about consecutive losing weeks, months or years, just sessions. I have lost 4 in a row, down $2.2k in a week. I am asking about what your experience is, tips on handling them and such.

This is not the first time I have lost 4 in a row. When these losing sessions come along, I start expecting to lose even as I walk in. My usual response is to take a few days off, then go and book small win sessions to get the confidence back. So, I go in, leave when I am up even if it’s just $100 and 10 minutes of playing. I will do 2-3 such short, small win sessions. Is this dumb, walking away just to preserve a win to get confidence back?

I am so fearful of a losing string of sessions that I want to just break it first. I want to get to where win or lose, I keep an unchanged routine, but right now it’s hard. I don’t like walking in, expecting to lose. I like walking in thinking the casino is my ATM.

How many straight losing sessions have you had and what is your tolerance level? When do you decide that maybe taking a break is a good idea?

From my record, I tend to have streaks of losses in the last two weeks of the month. Also I lost a lot on big holidays. My thesis is that casinos set higher clumping setting on ASM in the end of month to meet the earnings estimate on the balance sheet. This October is particularly extreme. I have won 10 out 11 trips from October 1st to 16th. Then lost six trips in the roll after October 18th.

[BoSox]

From my record, I tend to have streaks of losses in the last two weeks of the month. Also I lost a lot on big holidays. My thesis is that casinos set higher clumping setting on ASM in the end of month to meet the earnings estimate on the balance sheet. This October is particularly extreme. I have won 10 out 11 trips from October 1st to 16th. Then lost six trips in the roll after October 18th.

Seriously, why do you go out of your way to seek out trouble?

[ShipTheCookies]

Seriously, why do you go out of your way to seek out trouble?

Him and his stupid conspiracy theories needs to be banned from here!

[JBourne]

Well no. I did go, play, left up $125 and technically broke the streak, went back again the next day, won $200 and left, then yesterday, went and lost $400., so I am still losing.

Dealer deals to 6 hands plus himself. No one gets a BJ but everyone gets a face card, dealer has a $10 showing, no Ace underneath. Everyone stands, dealer flips and has another face card. That is 14 tens in a row! Dealer calls out the guy standing at the empty carny game at one side, the roulette guy at the other side, pit also comes by to see 14 straight 10 cards on table.

Thought Exercise:

What is the definition of a session? It's arbitrary. From a math perspective, the shortest it can be is a single hand and the longest it can be is every hand you play in your lifetime. You can measure your "sessions" all you want, but it doesn't mean anything. Just add up how much you have made since you have started playing and divide by the time you have been playing. That's the cumulative result of all your betting, skill, luck, and conditions. The more time that covers, the less luck was a factor.

It makes sense to track and manage your sessions, but it's only to manage yourself and the conditions. Don't play longer than you can play perfectly, be allowed to play, and not ruin other parts of your life. Take the time to record your results and reflect on your play and the conditions. Adapt if you need to. But don't sweat the luck and don't doubt the math. If you can't handle the swings, you are over-betting your bankroll or your psyche. If you deviate from optimal betting or optimal play because of the swings, you are sabotaging yourself because when it is time to win you won't make enough.

If you want to book a winning session, just go to the bathroom after a little luck and call it a session. If you want to win, play correctly even if you are afraid.

Luck (variance) can be a wicked thing: Yesterday I played for a few hours. In the first hour, I was up nicely mostly because of luck. I walked around and checked out the craps games and redeemed a coupon. In the second hour, I got very favorable counts and was crushed with big bets out, which seems to happen a lot. I went out and had dinner, then came back. The final hour I ran well, playing sharply through moving counts, winning the larger bets and losing smaller bets. Was that three sessions or one? If it was three sessions, I won two and lost one. If it was one session, I lost. That loss over three hours perfectly canceled out the one hour session I played a few days prior. My weekly session is flat. You get the idea...

If you are convinced you are being cheated, then leave. Either the conditions are bad or your head is screwed up. But don't mistake variance as evidence of cheating. In just two hours yesterday I experience more than 30 dealer blackjacks, and lost all but one since they were in low counts. I have never seen anything like it, but I also know I was not being cheated.

Coincidentally, the ASM had a fault while I was sitting there. The floor manager had to come over and clear it. There was one card stuck in the bottom. I'm sure they can malfunction, maybe leaving a the shoe a card short or with an ineffective shuffle. But it would be quite the feat (and quite the crime) to make an ASM detect the aces and tens then order them to perfectly fall based on the unknown number of players and decisions that will cover the entire shoe. If you think a 6D shoe dealt to 1/4 deck remaining is being manipulated then you should be able to detect it through observation of enough samples. Stand back and count dozens (or hundreds) of shoes to the end and make a data table with the final count. Calculate the mean and standard deviation, then do some statistical analysis. If zero is outside of the confidence interval, then there is a problem. If you haven't seen enough samples, you might just be complaining about variance. If you can't do the analysis then get the raw data and I'm sure one of the many math nerds here would love to help.

[21forme]

From my record, I tend to have streaks of losses in the last two weeks of the month. Also I lost a lot on big holidays. My thesis is that casinos set higher clumping setting on ASM in the end of month to meet the earnings estimate on the balance sheet. This October is particularly extreme. I have won 10 out 11 trips from October 1st to 16th. Then lost six trips in the roll after October 18th.

Him and his stupid conspiracy theories needs to be banned from here!

I second the nomination. Or at least an involuntary handle change to Yellowthreadman.

[BJGenius007]

Him and his stupid conspiracy theories needs to be banned from here!

Have you heard of freedom of speech? Or are you from China or Russia?

[BJGenius007]

I second the nomination. Or at least an involuntary handle change to Yellowthreadman.

Are you from China or Russia, too?

[Dog Hand]

21forme, the point is to understand why it’s happenning, whether it’s just randomness...<snip>

Yes.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[ShipTheCookies]

Have you heard of freedom of speech? Or are you from China or Russia?

Freedom of speech does not apply to private property. And this site IS private property.

[ZeeBabar]

Are you from China or Russia, too?

you have never been in China or Russia, making a whole lot of assumptions. Don’t turn it into a political discussion of freedom of speech....

I do agree we have the right to proudly display our stupidity..