Variance

[Photonman]

I posted this a few years ago on the Greenchip Page. Curious what some of the newer folks think. What if there were no variance? If every hour you got exactly your ev. Talk about the grind.

[Optimus Prime]

Boring but profitable. You could bet a lot with a small bank.

[refinery]

We're only allowed to play because of variance.

[Ryemo]

We're only allowed to play because of variance.

Exactly! If we were consistent winners (which we would be if our wins/losses were based on EV), the casinos would never let us play, and ploppies would never want to gamble anymore. Look at it that way. If patrons won/lost based on EV, non-APs would never win a single session. All gamblers would quit playing and casinos around the country would immediately shut their doors.

Variance is good.

[ZeeBabar]

Exactly! If we were consistent winners (which we would be if our wins/losses were based on EV), the casinos would never let us play, and ploppies would never want to gamble anymore. Look at it that way. If patrons won/lost based on EV, non-APs would never win a single session. All gamblers would quit playing and casinos around the country would immediately shut their doors.

Variance is good.

This year the roller coaster ride is much greater for me. Last 3 sessions, Minus $500, Minus $1000 and Minus $1100.

Oddly, the above with deep pen of 5.5 of 6 decks. I seem to lose with the great pen shoes, win with games where lesser pen is between 4.5 and 4.75.

[Freightman]

This year the roller coaster ride is much greater for me. Last 3 sessions, Minus $500, Minus $1000 and Minus $1100.

Oddly, the above with deep pen of 5.5 of 6 decks. I seem to lose with the great pen shoes, win with games where lesser pen is between 4.5 and 4.75.

Zee
With great pen comes great profit. It also comes with danger, translating to larger losses. Despite th3 pitfalls, this is what you want - agreed?

[ZeeBabar]

Zee
With great pen comes great profit. It also comes with danger, translating to larger losses. Despite th3 pitfalls, this is what you want - agreed?

Man, it’s hard. You lose max bets, start wondering if the casino has found a program to use on the ASM’s. Doubled an 8/3, get an Ace, hit a 12, get 4 Aces in a row before busting, dealer seems to have a card behind his bust card that seems to add up to 9-11 for him, it gets so crazy. Since this is a casino that used to cut of 1.5 decks, now cuts off less than .6 deck, makes you wonder if they have found a way to order cards...

I know it’s likely not true but those thoughts occur when negative variance enters in this manner.. Especially after you have returned from significant wins on hand shuffled DD games in other cities, to find this local casino with deep 6 deck pen and have a losing record over the past 12 sessions or so.

[stopgambling]

Zee, Want to borrow a psychology book?

[DSchles]

I know it’s likely not true but those thoughts occur when negative variance enters in this manner.

Ever ask yourself why you never question positive variance? When you hit every stiff and fill the hand, when every double works, when every insurance bet pays off, when the dealer breaks repeatedly even though it should be only 28% of the time, do you not walk away questioning how or why that could possibly happen?

But, the minute the variance is negative, and everything goes wrong instead of right, you don't see the symmetry in that? You don't treat it EXACTLY the same way as positive variance? How terribly naive you are! Win big? It was owed to you. Lose big? Something must be wrong. Wish I had a dollar for every wannabe counter who thinks that way.

Don

[Phoebe]

The minute the variance is negative, we enter in complex numbers world.

[Norm]

Just bet $100 +100i.

[ZeeBabar]

Ever ask yourself why you never question positive variance? When you hit every stiff and fill the hand, when every double works, when every insurance bet pays off, when the dealer breaks repeatedly even though it should be only 28% of the time, do you not walk away questioning how or why that could possibly happen?

But, the minute the variance is negative, and everything goes wrong instead of right, you don't see the symmetry in that? You don't treat it EXACTLY the same way as positive variance? How terribly naive you are! Win big? It was owed to you. Lose big? Something must be wrong. Wish I had a dollar for every wannabe counter who thinks that way.

Don

Don, I understand and your comments help me fight those thoughts. It’s why I am still around 6 years after I started. Insight does not seem to change emotional fears but unlike earlier times when a few straight losses and $3k in the hole would make me contemplate quitting and I would stay away for weeks, these days, it takes less time, maybe 2-3 days, before a I am back trying.

[Freightman]

Wish I had a dollar for every wannabe counter who thinks that way.

Don

Actually............ i think you do