Standard deviation of profit. That's cute. The downside risk here is immense. With an n0 that is so high as to not be achievable, this game just can't be played the way you want. Also, 70 rounds per hour is absolutely a fantasy.
Standard deviation is not cute. It's a real thing.
Whether or not the downside risk is immense, is for the original poster to decide.
I don't know what n0 is, nor do I want to play this game. I came up with an aggressive bet ramp that allows the original poster to play for a small profit, although, as you pointed out, with a gigantic standard deviation.
70 rounds per hours is very realistic for a live casino. The original poster is talking about an online casino. I've never played online, but I imagine rounds per hour would be about the same, or even higher.
hey bw929,
at first: thanks for the detailed calculations and your spent time.
Yes, Im sure they have 50 to 55% pen. They do not shuffle after each round.
For played rounds per hour, your estimation is a little too high, as refinery mentioned. Since you seem to have never played online, I understand your first assumption.
But let me tell you from experience: A round goes 1 min at minimun (1 Player alone) up to over 5 min/round if crowded. So for a crowded table it would be around 20 hands per hour. (average)
If you play alone (which rarely happens, from my experience) lets say u get up to 50 hands/hour at maximum (average). I never experienced heat, but I used to play a betspread from 1:8 at low stakes. So maybe
if Id use the betspread u calculated, it might be different.
Since the Casino has some different rules than you assumptioned, let me tell you the little differences:
split up to two hands allowed
play one spot always
REKO count (dont know if that makes a real difference from Hi-Lo, expectation-wise)
20 rounds per hour (200 rounds in 10 h).
The betspread you calculated is by far over my bankroll and for beating the game, i knew it would be needed that high.
Thats why I just asked for the needed betspread to go even with this game. If its over 1:25 I would not consider to play it at all.
So maybe you can tune your calculation a bit
Thanks in advance,
Alex
hey Zach Black,
at first, thanks for your answer.
The max. bet is not capped at 40$ in online casino. The one I mentioned is the nearest real casino (cruiseship) around me. Here im asking for advise for online live blackjack, where the cap is at 2.000$.
As I already mentioned: I know that counting this is a waste of time and I also know the fact that doin everything else would probably be more profitable.
Since I play (as one only can in this blackjack desert Germany) for the FUN of being good at this game, trying to beat the house. Since it is not (easily) possible to beat this kind of bad game, I would be ok with going even.
So counting like 365 days as a hobby without winning a dime (but also not loose one!) would be ok to me. As I dont do it for profit, but to have fun doing it and getting better at it.
But the thing I would not like is to play it and loose money at it. So the described goal - and the reason for this post is - to try to get just even
For anybody from overseas who might wonder about this: sadly here is no other way of playing Blackjack but for the fun
Last edited by SircOlman; 10-17-2019 at 12:10 PM.
Sircolman,
I ran the simulation again. Same as before, except for the following.
200 rounds (20 per hour for 10 hours)
play one spot only
only allowed to split once
bet ramp: $125 for >= 1, $5 otherwise, in other words, you get your 25:1 spread as aggressively as possible
Average profit: $5.17
Standard deviation of profit: $937
Standard deviation of the mean of profit: $1.45
So, just barely positive . . . about 50 cents an hour! (I realize you are playing in Europe, and may have a different minimum bet than the one I used.)
I didn't do REKO, because, presumably, the indexes differ from Hi-Lo, and I don't know how.
I won't be able to respond for a few days, as I'll be out of town. I hope this helped.
bw929
Oh you so right! I recognised it, when I once used REKO even for a 6D-game. I forget to tell that im using king of true counted REKO - so TREKO (Daniel Dravot: The color of Blackjack).
So I dont miss any betting opportuneties, but I use only a few deviations at one specific point. But maybe your are right by saying it makes a larger differnce than I assumed.
@ Zach Black
I already have CV But, at least for me, its a big difference to play blackjack without money, than playing it with money going even
@sn1per
For real? I only know that the Casinos in Germany are pretty the same, at least the Casinos within reach. But if its true what you say, I might need to look harder.
@bw929
Thank you so much May I ask with what kind of calculator you use? CVCX?
So your calculation tell me, that 1:25 is enough to go even. And if I use woning as well (like only playing at TC>=0) it would be even "better".
Thank you for your help - this was the answer I was looking for
If you are willing to calculate one more thing it would be really nice:
-Rulechange: As said, but now -> NO DAS after split
- Only play at TC >=0
-Spread only 1:20
and again, for real, thank you
Alex
SircOlman,
Same as before, but now the bet ramp is $5 and $100, no double down after split is allowed, and you only play when the true count >= 0.
Average profit: $6.82
Standard deviation of profit: $675
Standard deviation of the mean of profit: $1.04
I use software that I wrote myself.
Brian
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