Yes, all exactly right. Was going to provide a similar example, but had to step out for a while. Glad to see this when I got back.
Don
Hi Gronbog,
this is exactly the same I wanted to write (but was on airplane on my flight back from vacation during the last hours).
I thought of a similar example: if you don't see the burn cards, they are treated the same way as if they were behind the cut card.
Cards you don't know and see do not change anything to the computations.
Very nice explanation, Dog Hand! It reminds me of some similar explanations in Fred Renzey's Blackjack Bluebook II,
where he makes plausible that other players (e.g. third base "taking the dealer's bust card") don't influence your outcome,
because it all averages out to the same as if you were ignoring other players.
Besides, nice trick to simplify the computation using the distributive law regarding 4, and subsequently cancelling down the 51 off the fraction.
(I'm a currently a math teacher so I really liked it).
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