what are the odds...

**Freightman** · 09-01-2019, 06:57 AM

Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun

+100 is that the best game you can find near you? Not good.
Uggg I just saw you said this is an online game...seriously? You think that is a fair game? And even so it's an 8 deck game with 50% pen...before they even cheat you?

Why are you addressing me on this?

**blueman** · 09-01-2019, 09:07 AM

Originally Posted by Wave

Or just backcount a few dozen shoes and track 5s and 6s...the first time you got more than 32 you'd know.

Could also track the suites of each 5 and 6 and once you get 9 of the same exact card youd know. Might get 9 of the same exact card before you get 32 of that ranked card

**Stealth** · 09-01-2019, 09:36 AM

Originally Posted by Wave

Or just backcount a few dozen shoes and track 5s and 6s...the first time you got more than 32 you'd know.

Waste of time at 50% pen in an 8 deck game.

**cottage cheese** · 09-01-2019, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun

+100 is that the best game you can find near you? Not good.
Uggg I just saw you said this is an online game...seriously? You think that is a fair game? And even so it's an 8 deck game with 50% pen...before they even cheat you?

i can pm the name of the casino to whomever would like to know. And, as i wrote in another post, i would never play this game if not for a promotion that they're having. Also, they have ESA, which lowers HE a nice amount. So while this game isn't rly worth counting, it is a solid game for the promotion. the thought has crossed my mind that since they know they're gonna get heavier play bc of the promotion, it's possible they did something shady. but another part of me doubts that bc this really is a reputable casino.

also, i don't remember if i mentioned that aside from the 50% pen, the dealer cuts the cards in the same exact place every time after removing cards from ASM. so if there's any game that could be 'rigged,' it would be this one.
ts

Originally Posted by RS

I did my jimmy-rigged "simulation" in Excel of 100 shoes. Not great, but that's all I have access to right now. 8 deck shoe, calculated TC after every card dealt w/o rounding, and dealt to 223 cards. 223 being half of 8 decks (416/2) plus 15 cards for a round played after cut card. TC was calculated as RC/(Cards_Remaining/52). Not conclusive in any way by any means, but only 46 of those 100 shoes got to TC +1.5 or higher. I just did 100 more shoes and 48 of them went to +1.5 or higher.

thank you. i knew it's out of line - just didn't know by how much.

Originally Posted by Stealth

Waste of time at 50% pen in an 8 deck game.

he's not saying for playing purposes; he's suggesting so we'd know if they added low cards.

**refinery** · 09-01-2019, 12:03 PM

This thread is an interesting hue.

The fact is, this all hinges on a mythical capability of an ASM to "clump" cards. That notion is pretty ridiculous and for that reason alone this is voodoo.

To everyone who mentioned extra 5's, etc, this is an ASM game.

**blueman** · 09-01-2019, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by refinery

This thread is an interesting hue.

The fact is, this all hinges on a mythical capability of an ASM to "clump" cards. That notion is pretty ridiculous and for that reason alone this is voodoo.

To everyone who mentioned extra 5's, etc, this is an ASM game.

So? The shoe doesnt need to have small cards clumped to hurt the player... if there are more 5s in the shoe than normal, player is hurting a lot, clumped or not.

**21forme** · 09-01-2019, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by refinery

To everyone who mentioned extra 5's, etc, this is an ASM game.

I don't get your point. I've been on several cruises where almost every 8D shoe ended at a +10 to +20 RC when the cut card came out. There's no question in my mind that they were cheating.

IIRC, Wong stated somewhere that each ten or ace removed from a deck is worth ~0.5%.

**refinery** · 09-01-2019, 01:37 PM

Originally Posted by 21forme

I don't get your point. I've been on several cruises where almost every 8D shoe ended at a +10 to +20 RC when the cut card came out. There's no question in my mind that they were cheating.

IIRC, Wong stated somewhere that each ten or ace removed from a deck is worth ~0.5%.

Was it ASM? Did they ignore the red light? That's my point.

**21forme** · 09-01-2019, 01:42 PM

Originally Posted by refinery

Was it ASM? Did they ignore the red light? That's my point.

As long as the number of cards is correct, there won't be a red light. Substitute low ccards for high cards, one for one. The ASM doesn't read the card values (though some of the carny game shufflers can do that).

**cottage cheese** · 09-01-2019, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by refinery

This thread is an interesting hue.

The fact is, this all hinges on a mythical capability of an ASM to "clump" cards. That notion is pretty ridiculous and for that reason alone this is voodoo.

To everyone who mentioned extra 5's, etc, this is an ASM game.

i understand that thing are hard to believe if you haven't experienced them yourself. But also consider that if there were one scenario where a casino could get away with it, it'd be here, in a live dealer online casino. besides the clumping and lack of dealer busts i've witnessed, also consider that the dealer performs the same first cut every time, as there are no live players to do it. and this high percentage of high counts has occurred both times i've played in their live dealer contests. i don't play otherwise, so i can't say if this is a constant thing or not. after i win my prize, i'm getting the hell out of there.

Anyway, i won't try and convince anyone of ASM improprieties; rather, i'll be happy to pm you the name of the casino and you can watch for yourself.

**refinery** · 09-01-2019, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by cottage cheese

i understand that thing are hard to believe if you haven't experienced them yourself. But also consider that if there were one scenario where a casino could get away with it, it'd be here, in a live dealer online casino. besides the clumping and lack of dealer busts i've witnessed, also consider that the dealer performs the same first cut every time, as there are no live players to do it. and this high percentage of high counts has occurred both times i've played in their live dealer contests. i don't play otherwise, so i can't say if this is a constant thing or not. after i win my prize, i'm getting the hell out of there.

Anyway, i won't try and convince anyone of ASM improprieties; rather, i'll be happy to pm you the name of the casino and you can watch for yourself.

Both times? Sorry I doubted you.

**cottage cheese** · 09-01-2019, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by refinery

Both times? Sorry I doubted you.

I knew you'd finally come around.

But srsly, both times= ~3 weeks, ~12 hours a day.

**ZeeBabar** · 09-01-2019, 06:47 PM

Originally Posted by 21forme

As long as the number of cards is correct, there won't be a red light. Substitute low ccards for high cards, one for one. The ASM doesn't read the card values (though some of the carny game shufflers can do that).

This is incorrect. I watched them test one. The guy came to the table, took 3 cards out and placed it face down, ran the cards in the ASM till the red light came out, looked in the window, read the card denominations, flipped the 3 cards over and verified the missing cards, announced that it’s working, moved over to the next table to do the same.