Originally Posted by
cottage cheese
I'm playing in an online leaderboard contest, where you earn 1 point for every $100 bet on the live dealer games. There are three types of games: BJ, roulette, and baccarat. max bet on each game is $2k. I'm currently in second place with around 7300 points; I only play BJ. first place has around 8500 (he was not even on the board but shot up to over 7k points in less than a day), third place has ~5800.
I'm concerned about a couple of players currently with 4000 and 2000 points, because they're big bettors and the guy currently with 2000 points won the last contest by a long shot. The contest began last Sunday and ends this Sunday night, and I suspect some players are hanging around now with fewer points but will make big pushes towards the end. I really don't want to get into a competing betting frenzy on the last day, having to bet very large amounts and being susceptible to crazy variance. Still, i funded my account with a much larger bankroll than normal in case that happens.
When trying to figure out EV for this contest, I figured I might have to accumulate 1k points a day, for a total of $1.4m bet total. Playing BS on their BJ game, that's an expected loss of a little over $3140 (their BJ has a unique, valuable rule - otherwise, rules aren't great).
Can anyone give some advice/suggestions on how to try and make sure I don't lose my place to last minute surges? How would you play this contest? Would you try and steadily gain more points even though you're going more and more into negative EV on the game? I know there are a lot of smarter and more experienced guys than me here, and any input would be appreciated. If someone can give me a strategy that I end up needing to employ and it works, i'd be happy to give a token of the prize money to him/her.
A side note: The terms and conditions state that the casino can ban anyone who 'abuses' the promotion, so i'd be wary of strategies like betting 1k on banker and player in bac, for example.
Also - and I know some will consider this voodoo - a very big concern I have is that the count gets pretty high (+2 to +4) in a very large percentage of the shoes that I’ve played (maybe 70-80%), and rarely comes down. This is a supposedly reputable casino, so that seems very strange, especially in an 8-deck game with 50% pen. They're using ASMs, and the dealer does the cut. I’ve also seen a lot of clumping - but I’m not sure how to play it.
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