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I got to play some heads up yesterday. Problem was I had to start the game with a previous 20 cards or so played. I didn't want to just play the whole shoe with BS so decided to start my running count at -5.
This had me thinking if maybe I should start running counts at -2 to adjust for burn card. Doesn't seem harmful, if anything you'll have a higher edge than you realize rather than a smaller one.

Is this thinking flawed here, meaning do you think this would just cost me money in the long term? As far as the heads up scenario I mentioned above, how would you handle jumping in a heads up 6D game where

Thanks in advance for any insight!

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Unseen, dealt cards should be treated as if they're behind the cut card. You certainly don't count that slug of cards as "minus"

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Unseen, dealt cards should be treated as if they're behind the cut card. You certainly don't count that slug of cards as "minus"
That's how I remember some of the books I have saying you should handle the situation. It just seems like a bad situation either way. I sure wouldn't feel comfortable putting out max bets at a TC of +5 say three decks through. I would be thinking that fist slug I missed could of been really X heavy and what I think is a TC of +5 is really a TC of say -1. I have no doubt "Unseen, dealt cards should be treated as if they're behind the cut card" is the correct approach, only because that's what people more knowledgeable and experienced than me say. It's just one of those areas that I can't understand the logic behind myself. For instance, I know card counting works, not only because that's what experts say, but because I can see the math and logic behind it for myself. As far as the slug of unseen cards, I have a hard time understanding "why" it's safe to treat them as if they're behind the cut card.

Maybe it's because if we walked into the identical situation 1000 times of starting a shoe with a slug in the discard tray, each time we started the shoe short tens would be balance out with the times we started the shoe rich in 10's. Probably as simple as this and I'm just over thinking.

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You are probably overthinking this. If this slug is now considered behind the cut card. Is this new pen less than 75%? If so it might not be worth playing.

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Originally Posted by notFromTheMidWest
You are probably overthinking this. If this slug is now considered behind the cut card. Is this new pen less than 75%? If so it might not be worth playing.
This makes a lot of sense now. I am over thinking this.

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Unseen, dealt cards should be treated as if they're behind the cut card. You certainly don't count that slug of cards as "minus"
As above and reduce deck pen accordingly

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It is exactly as you write. You don't know the unseen cards, so don't take them into account. It makes no difference whether the unseen cards are in discard tray slug or behind cut card in shoe. The times where you over- or underestimate the richness in tens etc. will average out in the long run. The only thing which you should care about is the reduced pen, which will lower your SCORE.

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Just mentally remove the missed cards from the discard tray when you calculate true count. Then all else will be the same. If TC is plus 5, you’ve got just as much edge as if you’d seen all the cards (you’ll just see fewer good counts).

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You could ask for a new shoe. Casino that I know will do that. In fact I asked for new shoes when the shoe was - and didn't have a chance on turning +. No problem.

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All you do is mentally put the cards that are in the discard tray when you start to play at the back of the shoe. Don't assume the count of unseen cards.

Alternatively, every time you look at the discard tray, subtract 20 cards.

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