A couple days ago, I started back counting a 6D shoe at almost a deck in. Mentally at the time I just said 1 deck in.

Lo and behold, the running count went up in the high teens and touched 20.

Despite what I missed, and in essence only having 60% pen, I still made a ton that shoe.

For example, when I had a RC of 19, with 1.5 decks left in the shoe, I just say that's actually a RC of 19 with 2.5 decks left, so a TC 7.5. Because 2.5 decks are what you haven't seen. Still a very strong advantage.

I understand what might've led you to believe being that conservative would be a good idea, but it is flawed in this case.

In contrast, if you ever have a counting mistake, for example if you zone out and lose focus, then go wait, whoa, is the count 4 or 6? I'd say just run with 4. Hopefully that doesn't happen often though... I will say it happens to me once in a while, maybe once every few shoes when I am tired / have been playing for too long.