Expected value

[CaptainJack]

Disclaimer, not the ap captainjack. This is my last post on this account. Apologies to the ap captainjack

I’m trying to explain to a small investor in my bankroll a losing session he attended with me. Calculated using cvcx, my ev is 25/hour. After being up a quick 715 in first half hour of playing tonight, I played another 3.5 within the same strategy and ended up losing 900 (715 I won and 900 trip money) in total while in positive counts. Currently, I’m still playing on a small sample size of 30 hours at a 39/hour rate.

How do I explain continuing to play, even when you win big early?

[Counting_Is_Fun]

You won’t need to explain it very long if you keep playing 4 hour sessions.

[CaptainJack]

You won’t need to explain it very long if you keep playing 4 hour sessions.

Are 4 hour sessions long or not a good idea?

[Counting_Is_Fun]

Are 4 hour sessions long or not a good idea?

Both.

[CaptainJack]

The cards do not know whether or not you win or lose...you are playing for the long term...which means you have to get in as many hours as possible....but that does not mean you have to, or should, get them all at the same place.

I will admit to being emotionally rattled by drunk people in game, playing in a busy time, and slow hands played. My good sessions are mostly in less busy times and by myself. Is this a fair assumption by my small sample size? I’m not really worried about heat at this particular casino and most likely playing at small enough limit to be over looked.

[CaptainJack]

Thank you both!

[ZeeBabar]

As far as small investors go, some want to invest in a term length and others want to invest on longer terms. At one brokerage, I bought a CD for one year and now, the year is at end and I want my money plus the 2.60 APY back but the brokerage guy is reluctant to return my money, wants it for a longer term. That is unethical.

Hope you discuss before you accept an investor, how long you would want their money, what return you will provide them at minimum and maybe if you promise a greater return for more time, he might keep it going. However, he has the right.

[Midwest Player]

As far as small investors go, some want to invest in a term length and others want to invest on longer terms. At one brokerage, I bought a CD for one year and now, the year is at end and I want my money plus the 2.60 APY back but the brokerage guy is reluctant to return my money, wants it for a longer term. That is unethical.

Hope you discuss before you accept an investor, how long you would want their money, what return you will provide them at minimum and maybe if you promise a greater return for more time, he might keep it going. However, he has the right.

Zee, never heard of such a thing. What the hell is the name of this brokerage firm anyway. As soon as a CD matures at a brokerage firm the proceeds should be immediately deposited in a money market account or a cash account that is earning interest at the brokerage. In this environment with an inverted yield curve and taking your age into consideration I wouldn't invest in anything longer than a 2 year CD.

The broker might recommend a longer term investment. You are under no obligation to do so. I have money in two different brokerage accounts and both are linked to my checking account. I can move money in and out anytime I want. In fact money market accounts are paying more than a one year CD or even a two year CD right now. Schwab's money account (SWVXX) as of 8/16/19 had a seven day yield of 2%.

[21forme]

How do I explain continuing to play, even when you win big early?

Suppose there's a whale playing baccarat, betting $100K per hand. He has a bad run and is down $6 million after an hour. He wants to keep playing, but the casino wants to lock in their big win and backs him off. Does that make any sense?

As long as you (or in this case, the casino) is playing a game with an edge, there's never a reason to stop play based on the recent results. A positive expectation is a positive expectation, regardless of the short-term noise.

Another example - in recent years, roulette tables have had electronic displays showing results of the last 10-20 rolls. Not infrequently, you see 5-10 reds (or blacks) in a row. People run up to the table to bet the opposite color, because "it is due." Total BS. An independent trial is an independent trial.

[ZeeBabar]

Suppose there's a whale playing baccarat, betting $100K per hand. He has a bad run and is down $6 million after an hour. He wants to keep playing, but the casino wants to lock in their big win and backs him off. Does that make any sense?

As long as you (or in this case, the casino) is playing a game with an edge, there's never a reason to stop play based on the recent results. A positive expectation is a positive expectation, regardless of the short-term noise.

Another example - in recent years, roulette tables have had electronic displays showing results of the last 10-20 rolls. Not infrequently, you see 5-10 reds (or blacks) in a row. People run up to the table to bet the opposite color, because "it is due." Total BS. An independent trial is an independent trial.

21forme, I am wondering if you have (or there is a list) of reasons on why (or when) to end a session. Like

1. To maintain longevity
2. Suspect interest from pit starting.
3. Running short on session bankroll
4. Won a lot in short time
5. Not your day, losing every max bet today..
6.

[Freightman]

21forme, I am wondering if you have (or there is a list) of reasons on why (or when) to end a session. Like

1. To maintain longevity
2. Suspect interest from pit starting.
3. Running short on session bankroll
4. Won a lot in short time
5. Not your day, losing every max bet today..
6.

1. Yes, mid shoe is okay if negative or neutral, depending where in shoe, no if positive. Remember that deep in a shoe, a neutral deck can still become a monster.
2. Yes or no at light scrutiny, yes at a heavily populated pit if critters are staring at you holding into your rating card.
3. End of shoe, not enough to sustain a run or have money for doubles or splits - time to take a hike
4. Yes or no depending on store and amount.
5. No, as long as you have funds, though taking a break might be an idea.

[21forme]

21forme, I am wondering if you have (or there is a list) of reasons on why (or when) to end a session. Like

1. To maintain longevity
2. Suspect interest from pit starting.
3. Running short on session bankroll
4. Won a lot in short time
5. Not your day, losing every max bet today..

I don't have a list per se, but your list is reasonable. Regarding #4, understand that the reason to stop is not to "lock in a win," but to deflect attention or heat, if you so desire. Some people play until backed off. Others try to preserve longevity. Re #5, that, too, is not a reason to stop, unless your depleted bankroll prevents you from spreading as you need to, or your mental state is simply shot to the point you can no longer play well.

And I'll add 6. You're tired and realize your skills are not up to what they need to be. Get some rest.

And for the newbies out there, don't make the mistake of playing rated when you first start. The last thing you want to do is burn out your name before you build an adequate bankroll to really make some EV

[Freightman]

And I'll add 6. You're tired and realize your skills are not up to what they need to be. Get some rest.

EV

An absolute must. On out of town trips with multiple play sites, I’ll pick a hotel with easy access to all stores, where, if necessary (and it usually is), to go for a mid afternoon or early evening nap.

I’ll qualify “tired”, as being 2 types of tired, one if which can be played through in a matter of minutes, and the other where I absolutely know that my play will know longer be my A game.

Know your body, and understand levels of fatigue.