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Originally Posted by
Freightman
Assuming the proper skill set and bankroll, the math wins - agreed.
2 points
1. Given the exact set of shoe circumstances, the approach by 2 different competent counters can be entirely different, both approaches being correct by simulation and tolerance to risk.
2. Further, given the exact set of shoe circumstances, an approach attacking the issue of variance can be accommodated.........something that was NOT SURPRISINGLY lost in you, too.
I personally think someones long term view and success of counting is partially determined by the variance they experience when first up and running. Before you guys pile on, I realize some of you are freaking immortals with no emotion to money what so ever and fully understand the grind. This applies to the average person.
Player A and Player B both start their journeys the same way. They eat live and sleep studying the game. After two years they have identical skills and start with identical bankrolls they're salty and ready for war.
Player A heads off and runs like god for his first year. He loves blackjack even more, as he watches his bankroll grow he studies even harder gaining a deeper understanding of things. He whistles zippidy do dah as he drives to the casino for his sessions. He's off and running, he knows things don't usually go this well from previous study, but hey, times are great.
Player B Heads off and the poor soul finds winning sessions few and far between. He watches his bankroll dwindle, first down 25%, then down another 40%. He's studying and knows he's playing his 'A' game, but just can't catch a decent run. He ends the year down 85%..
I think the scenario mentioned above happens all the time when looking at two new serious counters. I have feeling Player A will be around for quite sometime, he'll catch some bad variance eventually, but he's had some success and will be more willled to bear through it. Probably a coin flip at best if Player B is anywhere near a blackjack table 3 years down the road.
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