Is an economic recession good for card counting?

[TAGR]

I recall watching a video where a struggling Las Vegas casino offered a "whale" (really a card counter) extremely favorable blackjack conditions. They did this because it was during a recession and they were really struggling for customers. The guy ended up taking them for a lot of money, but I digress.

My question is would an economic recession be favorable to counters due to the casino looking for customers, or would a recession be harmful for counters due to the casino being on higher alert for any advantage players who could take their money? Or does it make no difference at all?

[BoSox]

I would say a recession is bad news for card counters. The less revenue the casino makes the more they watch who is playing.

[CountinCanadian]

I recall watching a video where a struggling Las Vegas casino offered a "whale" (really a card counter) extremely favorable blackjack conditions. They did this because it was during a recession and they were really struggling for customers. The guy ended up taking them for a lot of money, but I digress.

My question is would an economic recession be favorable to counters due to the casino looking for customers, or would a recession be harmful for counters due to the casino being on higher alert for any advantage players who could take their money? Or does it make no difference at all?

Are you referring to Don Johnson?

[DoubleDownSoft21]

The less discretionary income, the less the betting handle for casinos.

Yes, the yield curve is inverted, and yes the yield curve often inverts before a recession. But just because the yield curve inverts, it does not automatically mean we are going into recession. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No.

[shockerman]

The less discretionary income, the less the betting handle for casinos.

Yes, the yield curve is inverted, and yes the yield curve often inverts before a recession. But just because the yield curve inverts, it does not automatically mean we are going into recession. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No.

Speaking of yield curves, I read the US T bond yield curve is now inverted which means more people are putting money in safer places. Nervousness, yes. Recession? Its not looking good.

[Freightman]

Speaking of yield curves, I read the US T bond yield curve is now inverted which means more people are putting money in safer places. Nervousness, yes. Recession? Its not looking good.

fix China trade problems, then all is well.

[lij45o6]

fix China trade problems, then all is well.

Fix the Fiscal problem that was started in 2017 and the Fed will follow suit.

Speaking of markets: Hey Don, how has the recent monetary and fiscal policies affected the securities market (with respect to volatility, ceteris paribus)? I would imagine that with the recent passing of the TCJA that there would be a sort of "overheating" effect, resulting in too much cash chasing too few capital goods, since no one seems to be increasing the purchase of capital goods. Correct me if I am wrong. If so, do you smell an AP opportunity?

[DSchles]

Fix the Fiscal problem that was started in 2017 and the Fed will follow suit.

Speaking of markets: Hey Don, how has the recent monetary and fiscal policies affected the securities market (with respect to volatility, ceteris paribus)? I would imagine that with the recent passing of the TCJA that there would be a sort of "overheating" effect, resulting in too much cash chasing too few capital goods, since no one seems to be increasing the purchase of capital goods. Correct me if I am wrong. If so, do you smell an AP opportunity?

Clearly, the Fed hasn't helped the markets recently. But many other forces are at play, as well, and as long as the China tariffs remain front and center, it doesn't take much to spook this market (increase volatility). That said, actual realized market volatility (not the bullshit VIX, which doesn't measure anything), just recently spiked to 19.9% (monthly measurement), with the current big down days, but was as low as 8.4% just two weeks ago.

As for opportunity, I'm not a market directional guy. I didn't make money predicting market moves. Rather, I made it hoping that the market would do absolutely nothing for the longest time possible!

Don

[21forme]

actual realized market volatility (not the bullshit VIX, which doesn't measure anything),

Is there a better index or published calculated number for volatility?

[DSchles]

Is there a better index or published calculated number for volatility?

Go to our website and have a look around: realvol.com

Don

[UncleChoo]

I recall watching a video where a struggling Las Vegas casino offered a "whale" (really a card counter) extremely favorable blackjack conditions. They did this because it was during a recession and they were really struggling for customers. The guy ended up taking them for a lot of money, but I digress.

My question is would an economic recession be favorable to counters due to the casino looking for customers, or would a recession be harmful for counters due to the casino being on higher alert for any advantage players who could take their money? Or does it make no difference at all?

If your talking about the same guy I remember reading about his name was Don something I think. I remember reading some long article about him talking about how he could beat blackjack without card counting and how he bet's so big on every hand and he was just great blah blah blah. Then I found another article about the same guy and it talked about how he got a huge rebate on losses. It was funny because I think the first article I read was an interview with him and if remember correctly he didn't mention his big rebates. This was 5 or 6 years ago so the exact details are fuzzy.

Maybe I should read all the posts before commenting because I just noticed someone writing the name Are you referring to Don Johnson

[Freightman]

If your talking about the same guy I remember reading about his name was Don something I think. I remember reading some long article about him talking about how he could beat blackjack without card counting and how he bet's so big on every hand and he was just great blah blah blah. Then I found another article about the same guy and it talked about how he got a huge rebate on losses. It was funny because I think the first article I read was an interview with him and if remember correctly he didn't mention his big rebates. This was 5 or 6 years ago so the exact details are fuzzy.

Maybe I should read all the posts before commenting because I just noticed someone writing the name Are you referring to Don Johnson

I don’t know the whole story. Essentially, he kept his winnings and got a rebate on his losses. The rebates were more than sufficient to overcome house edge. Something like that anyways.

[lij45o6]

I don’t know the whole story. Essentially, he kept his winnings and got a rebate on his losses. The rebates were more than sufficient to overcome house edge. Something like that anyways.

Correct.