Playing at home doesn't help you because you are also the casino. Otherwise I agree with everyone else....What?
No, you didn't explain in a clear manner, because you asked if playing at home would HELP YOU REACH N0 that much faster than just doing it in the casino. You never stated that you were simply trying to verify if you were playing a winning game and/or playing correctly, which, clearly, is not the same thing.
Don
Trying to understand this is kind of tilting, so instead of reading it again, I'll ask if the following is what you mean: You're pretty much saying, "If I play on a computer at home and reach X profit over Y rounds, does that prove I'm a winning player?" Note: "prove" meaning "a high likelihood of being" and not "with 100% certainty".
I think you're *kind of* right in that, however, I'll suggest a way that I think is better and more accurate....Don & others can obviously correct me if/where I'm wrong. But I would do this, assuming it's possible:
Track the rounds you've played and the size of wagers for each bet. You are going to track your results based on the assumption you're a basic strategy (losing) player. So track your negative EV (say, -0.46%) along with the +/- 1, 2, 3 SD's. Do the same thing, but do it with the assumption you're a winning player and playing properly, according to your spread/ramp/etc. On both graphs, you're going to also want to include your actual results.
Note that you do NOT want to change your spread or unit size during this "testing" period, as it can/will throw off your results.
I guess you technically don't need a graph, but I think it's easier to look at something visually and you can follow along the random walk as opposed to just seeing a few numbers that probably don't mean much to you.
After all, you want to make sure you're not a losing player. Knowing that you're within the range of possible results for a winning player isn't all that helpful, especially since until you've played a huge number of rounds, that range (for winning & losing players) is going to have a lot of overlap.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Bookmarks