Counting Cards in Connecticut

[Freightman]

You do mean doubling just the 10 vs 10 with that +7 rather than +4.



Do not pass up on the 10 vs A double with the RA Indice of +4. True the dealer can re-hit multi times a possible small soft hand but you already know the remaining pack is loaded with ten value cards and the dealer cannot have one as you already lost your insurance bet.

At halves or hi lo (different numbers for different Counts), I can’t think of plays that add EV faster, when properly executed, than 10 v 10, 10 v A.

[paymypush]

Both CT casinos offer late surrender, double after split, no limits on re-splits, and pen is never greater than 25%.
House edge is .57 at Mohegan and .56 at Foxwoods on their low-limit tables and in the .3s at their high limit tables.
There's more then enough EV in CT, MA and RI (who all share essentially the same rules)

No limits on re-splits at Mohegan Sun only. One card on split aces. Splitting 10s is not allowed.

By the way, Mohegan Sun has begun installing ASMs. Pit 24 in the Sky was the first to get them last week.

[PinkChip]

I really don't know if you would find a beatable DD game at a $5 min. The one thing I regret was waiting so long before running sims. It really was an eye opening experience. Even spreading $10 - $100 had a much weaker hourly rate than I would of first though and if playing $25 min spreading 1 - 6 you'll be shocked at how high your RoR is with bankrolls in the the 10k range. I guess wonging would improve things quite a bit, but where I play it's not really realistic to do it. It really does take money to make money in this game (unless going to luck-box some real positive variance for an extended period of time short rolled), that's about the only thing I'm certain of.

Well, certainly not at the Strip, but I hoped for some low-limit games in Downtown Las Vegas, having read of not only 5 dollar but even 3 dollar minimum. But even if such tables exist, they might be 6:5 or CSM or such crap. I would have to scout the games first.

I also would never assume that 10k bankroll is enough for 25 to 150 bet spread. The rule of thumb is 1000 min bets or 100 max bets, I read, so I would calculate with 15000 to 25000 bankroll to keep the RoR below 5 percent or something. But again, I must buy and try out CVCX first, since it is an eye-opener, as you state.

[PinkChip]

You do mean doubling just the 10 vs 10 with that +7 rather than +4.



Do not pass up on the 10 vs A double with the RA Indice of +4. True the dealer can re-hit multi times a possible small soft hand but you already know the remaining pack is loaded with ten value cards and the dealer cannot have one as you already lost your insurance bet.

Yes, you're right. I just had to look up in BJA3, p. 375, which index has +7 and which one has +4. And yes, it it logic that the risk of the dealer getting a good hand is greater when he has a 10 up, since when he has an ace up, he has no 10 in the hole because he already has (negatively) checked for a natural (provided that it is no ENHC game).

[UncleChoo]

Well, certainly not at the Strip, but I hoped for some low-limit games in Downtown Las Vegas, having read of not only 5 dollar but even 3 dollar minimum. But even if such tables exist, they might be 6:5 or CSM or such crap. I would have to scout the games first.

I also would never assume that 10k bankroll is enough for 25 to 150 bet spread. The rule of thumb is 1000 min bets or 100 max bets, I read, so I would calculate with 15000 to 25000 bankroll to keep the RoR below 5 percent or something. But again, I must buy and try out CVCX first, since it is an eye-opener, as you state.

You probably already have a better perspective of things than I did without running sims. There were certain things that seemed unconventional to me. For instance, I simmed my game and was surprised to see that my RoR was actually higher spreading 1- 6 versus 1 -10. Although, I'll be first to admit, I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but this really surprised me. You'll be in for hours of entertainment once you get the tools to sim different strategies and game conditions.

[Midwest Player]

I agree with Bosox. Being new here, you don't know who you should believe and who you shouldn't. That will come with time. Here's a hint - don't take advice from any forum member whose handle starts with the last letter of the alphabet.

Another cheap shot at Zee. By the way, Zee never claimed to be giving advice on blackjack. He mostly has just shared his own experiences. Mostly he has shared the human emotional side of playing blackjack especially for himself. Okay, if you can play without any emotions like a computer good. Go for it. Zee has shared his emotions and how losses affect him. By the way, Zee probably has the most read reports of anyone on this site providing many good and interesting trip reports.

[DSchles]

There were certain things that seemed unconventional to me. For instance, I simmed my game and was surprised to see that my RoR was actually higher spreading 1- 6 versus 1 -10.

Something to possibly help your intuition: If your spread were 1-1 (flat betting) what would happen to your ROR? Oh!

Don

[PinkChip]

So more spread increases EV, increased EV decreases RoR, but more spread increases variance and thus RoR again... ;-)

[UncleChoo]

Don's statement shows the logic is actually simple, but I couldn't see it until actually saw the sim data and was able to slowly interpret it. You'll see there is like a sweet spot as far as bet spread, where the higher the spread the lower RoR and then once you increase the spread above that sweet spot the RoR skyrockets. I assume this all ties into Kelly betting. Once the spread get's high enough you're starting to over bet your edge.

[PinkChip]

You probably already have a better perspective of things than I did without running sims. There were certain things that seemed unconventional to me. For instance, I simmed my game and was surprised to see that my RoR was actually higher spreading 1- 6 versus 1 -10. Although, I'll be first to admit, I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but this really surprised me. You'll be in for hours of entertainment once you get the tools to sim different strategies and game conditions.

After all, you have lots of training and some casino experience, whereas I have some training and no casino experience. All my thoughts are theoretical; I will have to journey to the US (after much more preparation and training) some day in order to get live casino experience. One point which I can hardly judge is the dealer speed, and how fast I must really be when counting. All that "count down a deck in 25 seconds or less" sounds not very helpful to me, for different reasons. One reason is, I am much faster counting in pairs than single cards, another one is that sometimes I cannot turn the cards quickly enough, so I get stuck when counting. The situation at at table must be quite different, since I can count in pairs, but the cards are more distant, there is an unknown dealer speed and unknown other players. Currently I have set most speeds in CV to about medium, but have no idea if I must be able to count at maximum CV speed, let alone how to deal with live casino distractions. Also I have sometimes difficulties in counting the points in multi-card and soft hands. I try to not explicitly count the points in hands, for not mixing up with the running count in my head. For 2- and 3-card hands, this is not so difficult, but for multi-card hands, especially with aces. CV offers the dealer announcing the totals, but I don't know if this is also the case in casinos. Besides, you should be able to detect dealer errors.

[Freightman]

You probably already have a better perspective of things than I did without running sims. There were certain things that seemed unconventional to me. For instance, I simmed my game and was surprised to see that my RoR was actually higher spreading 1- 6 versus 1 -10. Although, I'll be first to admit, I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, but this really surprised me. You'll be in for hours of entertainment once you get the tools to sim different strategies and game conditions.

See Dons insightful comment, which translated means - an inadequate spread leads to the poor house and remember

“The spread is your friend”

[BoSox]

By the way, Zee never claimed to be giving advice on blackjack. He mostly has just shared his own experiences.

MWP, as you already know many new players are now members on this site and can be easily influenced by others for the better or worse. Let's just say Zee's style is often unique and he follows his own course and ideas which may indeed work for him but the sample size is very small coming from only one person. Everyone has different playing styles and betting levels, comportment and new players should know this. 21forme was giving a public service message, and, for good or bad he should be commended for giving another perspective which the new guys can judge over a period of time for themselves.

[PinkChip]

Don's statement shows the logic is actually simple, but I couldn't see it until actually saw the sim data and was able to slowly interpret it. You'll see there is like a sweet spot as far as bet spread, where the higher the spread the lower RoR and then once you increase the spread above that sweet spot the RoR skyrockets. I assume this all ties into Kelly betting. Once the spread get's high enough you're starting to over bet your edge.

Yes, it sounds like a typical trade-off. You cannot overcome the house edge without a minimum spread (because you lose more hands than you win), but the higher the spread, the higher the variance, which gets dangerous when your maxbets are a too large portion of your bankroll. This reminds me of "Apollo 13" when they state that there is only a small corridor regarding the angle at which the space vehicle must reenter the atmosphere for landing descent. Too steep and it will burn up, too flat and it will rebound.