Counting Cards in Connecticut

[UncleChoo]

Blackjack is not always about preference sometimes it is about being more concerned about being welcomed back. Some advantages with shoe games, larger betting opportunities will last for a while longer especially latter in the shoe as the true count seems to stay the same because of the divisor "number of decks" is smaller for example: with three decks left and you have a running count of +9 you have a true count of +3 further into the shoe you have a running count of +6 with two decks left in the shoe, you are still at a true count of +3.

Plus remember the smart words that Freightman said below:

Both of you seriously helped my game before I even joined this forum along with a few other posters by some of your comments in old threads. Yep, I do try to participate, but don't want to steer anybody wrong.

[PinkChip]

Double Deck games, because of the high volatility involved, are counter traps. Know your store well before any appreciable spreads at DD.

Shoe games, as has been intimated, are less volatile, easier to spread, and to practice artistry (especially when heads up).

Hmmm, here is the problem for me as a beginner counter (not yet in casino, maybe next year) with little bankroll:

The most intimidating for me is volatility and losing streaks detrimental to at least trip bankroll, and thus uncertainty. I mainly practised 6 deck shoe in CV so far, and am clearly behind (approx. 1 or 2 standard deviations). Went down from 1100 to 400 in only about 3 shoes recently, spreading 5 to 50 (1:10 spread), then only recovered to 600.

The idea is a bankroll of 5000 (100 max bets) in the 6 deck case, so when I go down from 1000 to 0 and lose a short trip bankroll, I have only 4000 overall bankroll left and actually have to size down my max bet to 40 dollars (but 5 to 40 is only 1:8 spread, thus even less EV).

Thus I considered trying double deck, 1:5 spread from 5 to 25 dollars, for heat reasons. Then 100 max bets would only require a total bankroll of 2500, or is it still 5000 = 1000 min bets? I will buy CVCX soon in order to answer such questions.

The point is, you say DD is more volatile because the TC changes more rapidly. But in shoe games I have to wait longer for high TCs and good betting opportunities, and need a larger spread and max bet, which IMHO makes shoe games more volatile than pitch games (?). If available, this is to some degree flattened by Late Surrender in shoe games.

[UncleChoo]

Hmmm, here is the problem for me as a beginner counter (not yet in casino, maybe next year) with little bankroll:

Thus I considered trying double deck, 1:5 spread from 5 to 25 dollars, for heat reasons. Then 100 max bets would only require a total bankroll of 2500, or is it still 5000 = 1000 min bets? I will buy CVCX soon in order to answer such questions.

I really don't know if you would find a beatable DD game at a $5 min. The one thing I regret was waiting so long before running sims. It really was an eye opening experience. Even spreading $10 - $100 had a much weaker hourly rate than I would of first though and if playing $25 min spreading 1 - 6 you'll be shocked at how high your RoR is with bankrolls in the the 10k range. I guess wonging would improve things quite a bit, but where I play it's not really realistic to do it. It really does take money to make money in this game (unless going to luck-box some real positive variance for an extended period of time short rolled), that's about the only thing I'm certain of.

I wanted to add I really think the solo counter grinding away a 6 digit income is a very rare breed. The more I research the more I conclude the people who really extract money from this game are well organized and networked with team play. I could be way off base here, but this is how I see things as of now. It sounds like a nasty business too because the people at the top of these organized teams are probably always scouting fresh faces knowing damn well these new faces will only be useful for so long, and when there usefulness is over they're probably told to hit the road leaving the person burned out unable to find a game anywhere.

[PinkChip]

I really don't know if you would find a beatable DD game at a $5 min. The one thing I regret was waiting so long before running sims. It really was an eye opening experience. Even spreading $10 - $100 had a much weaker hourly rate than I would of first though and if playing $25 min spreading 1 - 6 you'll be shocked at how high your RoR is with bankrolls in the the 10k range. I guess wonging would improve things quite a bit, but where I play it's not really realistic to do it. It really does take money to make money in this game (unless going to luck-box some real positive variance for an extended period of time short rolled), that's about the only thing I'm certain of.

Well, certainly not at the Strip, but I hoped for some low-limit games in Downtown Las Vegas, having read of not only 5 dollar but even 3 dollar minimum. But even if such tables exist, they might be 6:5 or CSM or such crap. I would have to scout the games first.

I also would never assume that 10k bankroll is enough for 25 to 150 bet spread. The rule of thumb is 1000 min bets or 100 max bets, I read, so I would calculate with 15000 to 25000 bankroll to keep the RoR below 5 percent or something. But again, I must buy and try out CVCX first, since it is an eye-opener, as you state.

[BoSox]

Hmmm, here is the problem for me as a beginner counter (not yet in casino, maybe next year) with little bankroll:

The most intimidating for me is volatility and losing streaks detrimental to at least trip bankroll, and thus uncertainty. I mainly practised 6 deck shoe in CV so far, and am clearly behind (approx. 1 or 2 standard deviations). Went down from 1100 to 400 in only about 3 shoes recently, spreading 5 to 50 (1:10 spread), then only recovered to 600.

Well the good news according to cuts you up, is that you will be much closer to your real number when you are also playing the drills. Sorry cuts you up just a joke.

Thus I considered trying double deck, 1:5 spread from 5 to 25 dollars, for heat reasons.

Even though you, for the most part, would be left alone to play with that betting spread you need to understand that the heat on double-deck games comes from just sitting down to play those games period. It is the first place they look, as card counting is much easier to spot. Much shorter sessions are also required.

The point is, you say DD is more volatile because the TC changes more rapidly. But in shoe games I have to wait longer for high TCs and good betting opportunities, and need a larger spread and max bet, which IMHO makes shoe games more volatile than pitch games (?). If available, this is to some degree flattened by Late Surrender in shoe games.

Wonging is very tough in DD games. Shoe games are not meant to be played every hand, especially by limited bankroll players. In shoe games wonging becomes an art, which also includes periodically sitting out hands. The fewer shit hands you play the less spread you will need to win. Shoe games, for the most part, have better rules than DD games which already cuts down on the house edge. Better rules creates more volatility but that is what you want. Now back to the surrender clause, one of the great things about it is you can increase your top bets slightly while protecting yourself at the same time, it is just so valuable of an option.

[Freightman]

Now back to the surrender clause, one of the great things about it is you can increase your top bets slightly while protecting yourself at the same time, it is just so valuable of an option.

As does risk averse indices.

[BoSox]

As does risk averse indices.

Of course, very good point Freighter, especially for limited bankrolled players.

[PinkChip]

Yes, I particularly got cautious about doubling 10 vs. 10 or ace, with that +7 rather than +4 index in BJA3 book. Anyway it seems risky to double down when I have "equal or less" than the dealer upcard.

[BoSox]

Yes, I particularly got cautious about doubling 10 vs. 10 or ace, with that +7 rather than +4 index in BJA3 book

You do mean doubling just the 10 vs 10 with that +7 rather than +4.

Anyway it seems risky to double down when I have "equal or less" than the dealer upcard.

Do not pass up on the 10 vs A double with the RA Indice of +4. True the dealer can re-hit multi times a possible small soft hand but you already know the remaining pack is loaded with ten value cards and the dealer cannot have one as you already lost your insurance bet.

[Freightman]

You do mean doubling just the 10 vs 10 with that +7 rather than +4.



Do not pass up on the 10 vs A double with the RA Indice of +4. True the dealer can re-hit multi times a possible small soft hand but you already know the remaining pack is loaded with ten value cards and the dealer cannot have one as you already lost your insurance bet.

At halves or hi lo (different numbers for different Counts), I can’t think of plays that add EV faster, when properly executed, than 10 v 10, 10 v A.

[PinkChip]

You do mean doubling just the 10 vs 10 with that +7 rather than +4.



Do not pass up on the 10 vs A double with the RA Indice of +4. True the dealer can re-hit multi times a possible small soft hand but you already know the remaining pack is loaded with ten value cards and the dealer cannot have one as you already lost your insurance bet.

Yes, you're right. I just had to look up in BJA3, p. 375, which index has +7 and which one has +4. And yes, it it logic that the risk of the dealer getting a good hand is greater when he has a 10 up, since when he has an ace up, he has no 10 in the hole because he already has (negatively) checked for a natural (provided that it is no ENHC game).

[Midwest Player]

Hmmm, here is the problem for me as a beginner counter (not yet in casino, maybe next year) with little bankroll:

The most intimidating for me is volatility and losing streaks detrimental to at least trip bankroll, and thus uncertainty. I mainly practised 6 deck shoe in CV so far, and am clearly behind (approx. 1 or 2 standard deviations). Went down from 1100 to 400 in only about 3 shoes recently, spreading 5 to 50 (1:10 spread), then only recovered to 600.

The idea is a bankroll of 5000 (100 max bets) in the 6 deck case, so when I go down from 1000 to 0 and lose a short trip bankroll, I have only 4000 overall bankroll left and actually have to size down my max bet to 40 dollars (but 5 to 40 is only 1:8 spread, thus even less EV).

Thus I considered trying double deck, 1:5 spread from 5 to 25 dollars, for heat reasons. Then 100 max bets would only require a total bankroll of 2500, or is it still 5000 = 1000 min bets? I will buy CVCX soon in order to answer such questions.

The point is, you say DD is more volatile because the TC changes more rapidly. But in shoe games I have to wait longer for high TCs and good betting opportunities, and need a larger spread and max bet, which IMHO makes shoe games more volatile than pitch games (?). If available, this is to some degree flattened by Late Surrender in shoe games.

Here are my thoughts on double deck vs 6 deck games. (Yeah, my personal choice is double deck games)

First, learn to play what is available in your area. Don't learn double deck stuff if your only choice is a $50 min double deck game when you can play a $10 min 6 deck game especially if you are just a beginner with a small bankroll. Most double deck games have higher mins than 6 deck games. However, it is easier to spot a counter at DD than 6 deck, but many places don't care much about red chippers. Also what BoSox said is true that a lot of six deck games will offer surrender while very seldom will you find a two deck game that offers surrender. Surrender is much more important to a card counter than a basic strategy player.

Now if I remember correctly in looking at Finer Tuner's SCORE of blackjack games in Vegas, at the top of the list each month were almost all double deck games. You can win with just a 1 to 6 spread on a double deck game. If you have $5 min DD games in your area go for it and get some experience under your belt. You need real live casino experience.

There are a lot of $5 min DD games in the Midwest especially away from the big cities and out in the sticks. In fact, you can even find $3 min DD games. I know of a casino in Wisconsin that caters to double deck players. They offer something like one six deck game and 8 double deck games. I once asked them why they had so many double deck games and they answered we try to give the players what they want. At a $5 to $30 betting level and a $5,000 bankroll your risk of ruin is only about 3% with a $5 to $30 spread. I doubt they would even blink an eye. Take $500 for a trip bankroll and if you lose it come home. Trip risk for a $500 bankroll is about 7.6% assuming DD game $5 to $30 spread, 60% pen, and 4 hours of play. Expected win will just be a little better than min wage per hour.

[PinkChip]

Thanks Midwest Player for your hints! Some of them I already knew (e.g. hard to find Late Surrender in DD games, and probably S17 and DAS is also rare, and in Reno often Double on 10/11 only). But it is always necessary to scout the conditions locally. And here lies my biggest problem: since living in Europe, I would have to make a longer vacation in the US to get started in card counting. Two weeks is certainly not enough for getting into N0... I would have to come several times at least. However, I have no ambitions in making a living from blackjack, I just want to have some fun but with serious attempt to winning over time, because I am very strong into science and mathematics.

For this reason, I have to practice for both two deck and six decks, because I cannot yet know the games I will encounter. Actually I am practicing against any number of decks, since I have 4-, 6- and 8-deck shoes and discard trays at home (for physical training) and have set up 6 decks and recently 2 decks in Casino Verite.

Regarding pitch games, I have the problem of not having a clear idea on how the cards are really dealt (face up/down) and how the playing procedure is (scratching, tossing and all that stuff, and when I can count every card). I have never seen a DD game for real and most movies show only shoe games, which I know much better, and are easier to understand since all cards are dealt face up (CV says sometimes the double down card is dealt face down but I guess mostly it is dealt face up and perpendicular to the other cards of the player hand).