IMO, you play DD for the low n0 and EV. I ran a quick sim and the game doesn't look bad, but the n0 is 25k or so. Why take on the heat of a DD game to play that? To eat all the negatives? You can craft a solid 6D game just by sitting out some rounds, reducing the n0, and keeping a lower profile. No reason to play the DD. If you want to play that specific DD, find a different edge on it.
Yes, similar to: if p is the "hit" probability, then 1-p is the "miss" probability in a binomial distribution, or another example: for true count conversion, either look directly at the shoe to determine the "number of decks remaining", or look at the discard tray to determine the counterpart "number of decks played" and subtract it from the total number of decks.
I would always play 2 hands. It also depended on conditions. If it's a Friday night and the place is packed, floor is super busy, then yeah, I'm spreading a lot. If it's a Tuesday afternoon and there isn't much going on, I'm going to be spreading less and being more cautious. Some floormen are cool, some aren't. If I go up to the table and they ask for players card, I say no, they say ok good luck and walk away.....compared to them asking for players card, I say no, they keep pressing me on, I say no thanks, then they hang around for a while....also considering how busy the place is (or if there's big action somewhere else), my play could be drastically different.
What I did is I simmed a bunch of different conditions in DD (pen, some rules [but most were all the same rules], spread, and unit size) and then when I played, I knew the bare minimum I'd be willing to play (EV) as well as maximum I'd be comfortable playing to (risk). For example....
50% pen, HU: 2x25 to 2x150
66%+ pen, HU: 2x25 to 2x100
50% pen, 1-2 other players: 2x25 to 2x200
66% pen w/ 1-2 players: 2x25 to 2x150
50% pen, 3+ other players: Don't play
66%+ pen, 3+ other players: 2x25 to 2x200
75% pen, 3+ other players, 2x25 to 2x150
Then the same thing for a 2x$50 min bet as well as 2x$75 min bet. EG: I wouldn't spread 2x25-2x100 (4x) on 50% HU, but I would do 2x50-2x200 (4x) on 50% HU.
It's also important to know what your maximum bets can be. So do the same thing, but instead of "what's the minimum I'm willing to play for?" ask "What is the maximum [risk] I'm willing to play to?"
I don't remember all the numbers now since I haven't played in forever, but that was my general thought process. I figured I was willing to play something worth $100 per 100 rounds as a minimum and if what I was playing was worth $200 or $300+ per 100 rounds, then that's just gravy.
Of course 2x12 isn't going to be allowed at a lot of places, but if/when it is allowed, I sure as hell would be playing that much. No reason not to. But I also treated card counting differently than others, since I just did it in my spare time when I was bored, putting in a few hours here and there, because I was doing other types of AP. So if I got backed off somewhere, it wasn't that big of a deal since most of my income was coming from other forms of AP. Naturally, everyone is in different circumstances and have to play accordingly. Risk tolerance, bankroll, willingness to play (for lower EV stuff), expenses and/or other income, ability or inability to travel, etc. are all going to play a role in how aggressive someone plays.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
RS thanks for the reply. Yes My thought process is mostly the same as yours here regarding DD.
If it's not at least close to $100 per hour then I am not really interested. But it really depends on that pen, and number of players etc.
Curious...why do you say definitely play 2 hands? Even heads up? To increase your EV? To reduce NO? To drop to 1 hand when the count tanks?
I would just always play 2 hands. I don't know when/if it's optimal to play 1 hand or 2 hands, but 2 hands of the same spread is gonna be higher EV than 1 hand, so I just always did 2 hands. For EV, and yeah, always heads up. It probably reduces the N0 and all that stuff, but to be honest I really don't remember if that was a factor, but probably somewhat.
I wouldn't drop to 1 hand. I would only potentially do that if the count was super low, in which case, you're probably pretty far into the shoe and only have another round or 2 to go. As obvious and easy it is to spot someone counting, I wouldn't want to make their job any easier.
Also, it makes my "system" easier to follow. I also (obviously) tracked my results, and part of that was which spread/ramp/unit size I was playing. To do the same thing but to add in the potential to drop to 1 hand in low negatives, a lot more effort than it's worth, since it means I'd have to re-do every sim I ran. Sometimes ya just can't drop to 1 hand because players will go apeshit. I don't want to cause a commotion and even though "There are other players at the table?" should be followed to an extent, you also have to realize it may be better to just give up an extra $1-$2 in EV occasionally to be able to fly under the radar a little bit more.
That's all just my opinion and how I approached the game. I don't care to be 100% perfect. I'd rather keep it simple and get 95% out of the game than do complicated stuff and get 100% out of it.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
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