2 things.
1. The deeper into the deck you ago, the more volatile the deck becomes. This means that superior betting opportunities can come out of nowhere.
2. The further into the shoe you go, the greater the increase in advantage per 1/2 or full true count.
Now, another way of putting it. Assume initial house edge of .5, with increase in advantage of .5 per full true count. The further into the deck you go, that .5 becomes .6, and then .7.
To make this even simpler, since most (not all) high true counts occur late in the shoe, you don’t have to remember floating advantage, provided, you calculate your increase in edge, and increase your Kelly bet accordingly.
OK, I was a bit tired when reading this. But I have the impression from many of your posts that you emphasize (get upset about) losses more than wins. Like the positive versus negative variance stuff. Is this casino the only one with such deep penetration or could you try playing other ones with similar penetration for comparison?
I continue to be amazed at the supposed AP's who profess no need to track their play in detail and then bitch when they lose four sessions in a row and have no way of understanding the probability of that happening. When have you heard a player say, I have been losing for 5 months now and I am -1 standard deviation away from the expectation.
And while -1 SD is not very meaningful, if it were -3 SD it gives you a completely different view. Granted, the size and accuracy of the data is critical and being at or near N0 improves it meaning. N0 for most AP played 2D games is 12-16K and most 6D games is around 50K. So how long to play before you have meaningful information, if you are tracking it?
Understanding the impact of "wonging in and out" on N0 is crucial to keeping a tight rein on your game.
Whining about losing without the analysis and data is the mark of gamblers not AP's.
Z's, comment about always losing in a deep cut shoe is uttter bullshit. The number of positive counts experienced due to improve penetration is cause for celebration not stupid comments about losing.
So, stop whining become a student of what works and apply it.
Get over yourself!
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
“Z's, comment about always losing in a deep cut shoe is uttter bullshit. The number of positive counts experienced due to improve penetration is cause for celebration not stupid comments about losing.
So, stop whining become a student of what works and apply it.”
Stealth, I never said anything about always losing on a deep cut shoe, in fact I look for penetration.
I was talking about A casino chain with 2 casinos in my area that had always cut off the traditional 1.2-1.5 deck in a 6 deck shoe, used to counter measure me and would mostly get interested in bet spreads and big bettors. Now, they have gone to using a notch, providing a 5.5 deep penetration, don’t seem to care, sometimes curiously check me out (glance at my chips) as if they know I am counting. I play one hand of $10 at TC-1, two hands at TC 0 of $10 each, move with the count, max betting at 2 x $90. On occasion, I have bet 2 x $100. They just don’t care. I lose. They have similar deep cut games in their HL room.
I also mentioned the count almost always moving high negative or high positive every shoe very unlike to 6 deck games elsewhere.
I mentioned the name of the casino, hoping some of you might check it out. Ryemo or others play in the same areas I do. Hope they will provide some input nevof these days. I am not going there for now. Lost too much thinking it was just variance, it is not.
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