Probability Dealers UpCard v. Players Upcard

[TheGerman]

Hello,

my Name is Marc Im from Germany , quiting blackjack some years ago with the upcoming of Shuffle-machines.
Before i was familar with counting, Shuffle-tracking and Ace-Location.

Im Looking for a Chart of Probability for Dealers UpCard vs. Players UpCard.

All i found was a Chart of ROI what includes Doubling, Splitting and BJ-Payout.
Im looking for the "naked" winrate of the hand. especially if its the same.
for example Dealer has a 2 , i have a 2 - what is the Probability for losing,winning and push. and so on till Ace.

Has someone such a Chart ?
Kind Regards

[DSchles]

Why are we assuming that the player has ONE upcard? Are you looking for the e.v. of just the player's FIRST card, but not the two-card hand, vs. all the dealer's upcards? How would this information be used?

Don

[TheGerman]

it is About a side bet, same (first) upcard + not lose the hand

[TheGerman]

it is About a side bet, same (first) upcard + not lose the hand

May I have to explain it more detail to get Attention

There are 2 sidebets

1. If ur first 2 cards are the same (suit doesnt care) you get 11:1
2. If ur first upcard is the same as dealers upcard and u win the hand u get 22:1

Of course this side-bet are worse chance for No1 is at 6deck 23/311 , so u need 12,5:1, No2 even worser.

Anyway people played it like hell and at the end lost much.
Maybe that is why they changed the rule for No2 - Now u are paid at push too.
I expect this is a big boost to +ev for side-bet no2.
There is a big chance , that if ur upCrad (and dealers upcard) is 7 till Ace , for a push (cause of the 10-Value cards) - to mention: if u have e.g. 77 for a split, the first hand counts.

Lets say in case u have the same upcard as the dealer and u not losing the hand by 65% , u need 19,8:1 to be equal, but u get 22:1

[TheGerman]

See at YouTube : [[redacted]]

Yes, thats the ROI, but for this side-bet i need the net-outcome win/push/lose.



however , I calculated it on single-Deck outcome of Dealers- UPCard for 7 till Ten , because its quite the same hit/stay for the player.

for 7 till Ten its about 55,5% till 56,5 % not losing the hand (about 17,5% push included) far away from my assumed 65% ....
Even its for starting cards 4,5,6 better , because player have not to hit untill 17. Maybe it grows to 58% overall. Thats just the % you need for 22:1. Dealer force u to tip brings u in -EV.

However - ty

[TheGerman]

At least I wrote a program for this issue, cause its to difficult calculate the probability on small card.
I run it 1 Mio Hands on upcard of 10value for player and dealer. (i run it 10Mio hands too, but it takes 4 days for the result)

May someone is interested in the result.
1 Mio- Hands :
Player Bust: 212205
Dealer Bust: 167537
PUSH: 166746
Player WIN: 394399
Dealer WIN: 438855

The difference between Dealer-bust and Player-Bust on same hit-strategy is, because i stopped, when player bust.
if i calculate this in , the bust-rate is quite the same (player 21,22% vs. dealer 21,275)
has someone a calculation which confirm this rate (bust on 10value) ? - so i feel more safe about my program.

What else shows this result? player has only 39,5 % chance to win this hand, 56,1% not to lose, what i calculated before

one surprising result, but only 10.000 hands:
Dealer has a 5 (like player)

Player Bust: 0
Dealer Bust: 4160
PUSH: 303
Player WIN: 4753
Dealer WIN: 4944
Player Lose: 4944
Dealer Lose: 4753

dealer bust 41,6% on 5 but wins still 49,5% vs players 5 startinghand (of course 10.000 hands there is much variance)