can someone sim this correctly if its even possible?

**hwjman** · 07-25-2019, 01:38 AM

long story short, i was playing bj at a private property and i think they might cheat on the deck they were playing with.

rules are 6d, s17, no rsa, double any 2 cards, split up to twice(3 hands total), bj pays 3 to 2, no insurance, late surrender, about 83% pen.

first time playing here, my bankroll were $2000, was planning to spread aggressively since i dont plan to come back.

my spread was

1 or below = $10
2 = $80
3 = $120
4 = $160
5 = $200
6 = $240
7 = $280
8 = $320
9 = $360
10 = $400
11 = $440
12 = $480

i was just scouting around for an hour when i first arrived, then started playing using zen with some indexes. i lost the whole $2000 on my first 30 hands, didnt even go through half of the deck. the count went up high for the first 10 hands which made me bet $200-$300.

can someone sim this correctly though? is this even mathematically possible?

**Jabberwocky** · 07-25-2019, 02:07 AM

Sounds like a trick question.

**ZeeBabar** · 07-25-2019, 04:50 AM

You are going to get the usual answer, that it’s too small a sample, that it’s just variance, or that you lose a lot in high positive counts. I think your ramp is too much. You ought to keep a max bet of $200 regardless of count and that max bet should be hit at a TC of +5 or so just like you have it. It helps with the swings.

since you lost the “whole $2000”, I should point out that your max bet has no business being over $200. I think what you did was “go on tilt”. I once had about that much when I started a session ($2000) and in that very first shoe, count was up when I split a pair of 6’s against a 3 with a bet of $120 (or so, forgot exact amount) ended up getting four 6,s or four hands, doubled 2 of those and lost all of them. I was broke for the session less than 10 minutes into it.

**Freightman** · 07-25-2019, 05:18 AM

Your roll was clearly insufficient for your ramp. Further, assuming .5 he, breakeven is +1 and +2 was 80, then +3 should have been 160. In other words, your ramp was far from optimal. Losing an insufficient bankroll was almost a given.

**Tetn1s** · 07-25-2019, 08:47 AM

You’re saying the TC went up to +7 in the first 10 hands on a 6 decker... lets see if its possible

Assuming average 2.7 cards per player, we have 54 cards out (2.7 cards/round * 10 rounds * 2 players). Therefore the highest count possible (assuming you’re the luckiest guy in the world) would be RC= +54 (hi-lo) with 5 decks remaining, a TC of +9 if we floor. With Zen, 33% of low cards are marked +2, so the RC would increase by 133% = +72. TC = 14 in 10 hands. So to reach TC = +7, at least half the cards that came out would have to be positive and the other half neutral, or an even greater amount of low cards if we see any high cards. Pretty unlucky but possible.

We can confirm he was playing heads up because half the deck was used in 30 rounds. 156 cards in 3 decks, and 30 rounds 2.7 cards per player per round * 2 rounds = 162

You lost all your money because most of the beneficial high cards were in the bottom half of the deck. Now if they were there at all, I can’t say.

To confirm cheating, backcount and see if you can count more than 24 fives or 24 fours in the deck.

**Phoebe** · 07-25-2019, 08:48 AM

Unlucky.
RoR after 30 rounds was below 1% (13% after 100 rounds)
The ramp was correct, close to optimal for a 1-48 spread.

2019-07-25 17_37_46-Chapter X It! - Zen Original Full Indices.jpg

PS: my previous sims was dirty: deleted.

**BankerCA** · 07-25-2019, 11:38 AM