When to take a profit/loss and walk away from a shoe

[mors]

I'm a newbie'ish, just learning, so can play BS and count reasonably.
I understand the concept of wonging and the difference it can make to your EV. But, say for a minute you're not planning on wonging in/out based on the count, but you plan on exiting a shoe on x amount of profit or loss - do any of you do that? I understand you shouldn't play ideally when the count is bad, but say it's hovering in and out of being good (e.g TC 1.5-2 etc), is there a point you'd walk away with a profit or loss? The reason I ask is sometimes when I'm playing, I feel like I stay on a shoe too long, I might get upto say 10-20 units positive, when the count is good or borderline, keep playing and then end up losing virtually all my profits. Then there are other times when the count is good, I ramp my bets accordingly, but miss all the cards and it goes against me, and my stack gets decimated - so I feel like I've maybe stayed too long in the action there too.

Should I play with like a stop loss one way, and then walk away the other side when I've made x amount of profit, or even ramp back down my bets? I know some might say you should always keep playing when the count is positive, but sometimes I've played (mainly on Verite) by doing this I've gone completely through my session bankroll in a couple of minutes after being considerably up and staying in a positive count.

Any thoughts appreciated

[Norm]

Stop losses have no effect, unless you never play again. Walking away fro a shoe with a good count makes no sense. If the count is good, you have the advantage. Doesn't mean you are going to win. It just means you are more likely to win.

[cc12b]

Stop losses have no effect

You are right if human brain is made up with silicon but when loosing makes player depressed causing him/her can not play at his/her best then stop/take break is good choice. The next hand/round does not have to be in the same shoe, it can be next table or next trip or other casino. my 2cents

[ShipTheCookies]

You are right if human brain is made up with silicon but when loosing makes player depressed causing him/her can not play at his/her best then stop/take break is good choice. The next hand/round does not have to be in the same shoe, it can be next table or next trip or other casino. my 2cents

If he's "loosing", maybe he should "tighten" up.

[RTR2021]

I have pulled a stop win when the count came back to barely positive and I've absolutely crushed that shoe (for 500+), just to avoid attention.

[Freightman]

I have pulled a stop win when the count came back to barely positive and I've absolutely crushed that shoe (for 500+), just to avoid attention.

That’s not a stop loss in the manner described. However, from your description, you’re usually reasonably deep in the shoe. This is where anything can happen and volatility is what you want. The shoe may still yet get hugely positive. If positive, you finish the shoe, if negative, take a hike.

[RTR2021]

That’s not a stop loss in the manner described. However, from your description, you’re usually reasonably deep in the shoe. This is where anything can happen and volatility is what you want. The shoe may still yet get hugely positive. If positive, you finish the shoe, if negative, take a hike.

Right, not optimal, and only occasional, but have done it for the reason given.

[Tetn1s]

I’d add that stop wins are beneficial for longevity, but only after a shoe is over or past the optimal departure point. This is so the casino doesn’t get too interested in you.

The reason why stop losses in the middle of the shoe don’t work is because life is one large session, the cards continually come out whether you are there or not. When you stop play, the cards don’t make up their mind that you’ll now win because you triggered the stop loss. If count is positive, keep playing.

if the conditions are good and you’re playing correctly , even if you are losing your fridge, mathematically you’re making money once you hit the long run. Now if you’re actually losing your fridge, then money management is your problem and not “stop-losses”.

[mors]

Thanks for the replies all, very helpful and food for thought.
I thought you might all be advocates of playing a shoe whilst the count was high, and I absolutely understand why you would say this, from a maths point of view. My problem is for me, a recreational player, I don't think I'm ever going to get near the long run, or N0 etc, where my figures are going to balance out.
I've been looking at some of my Verite stats where I've played for fun, say 200 shoes, and for me personally, staying in a shoe whilst the count was positive just hasn't been worth as profitable as if I'd have backed out and took a good profit when I was way up. Looking at my stats, there were considerably more than 50% of shoes where I'd been up 20-30 and ended up with 10 units of profit or decimated my bankroll, than ones where I realised close to the maximum profit from the shoe. Here some regular scenarios for me:

1.Get up to a great profit on a shoe, say 20-30 units, and finish the shoe on this amount or better
2.Get up to a great profit on a shoe, say 20-30 units, and end up on more like 5-10 units of profit
3.Get up to a great profit on a shoe, say 20-30 units, and finish on virtually my opening bankroll or a small loss
4.Play a high count, miss all the cards, bankroll gets decimated

I'd say the split for me on these currently and looking at the Verite stats is about 5%/65%/20%/10%

Because me taking or realising the great profits I sometime reach is so rare, but I do get into that area where I'm in a good profit, quite regularly, I just feel like I'm not taking advantage of them.

Looking at my practise shoes, if I played through the entirety of all positive account shoes, then I'd be hovering around zero pretty much. But, if I bailed out on all of them at around 20 units, I'd be significantly up. I need to see if putting a bottom in at say 20 units helps me at all. Looking at my stats, over say 200 shoes, nothing has every ever come good for me once I've passed a loss of 20 units.

I feel like if I was playing a massive amount of shoes, say thousands, the number may, may, even out. But, over the hundreds of shoes I'm likely to play, I'm not able to retain profit.

[21frogman]

I've been looking at some of my Verite stats where I've played for fun, say 200 shoes, and for me personally, staying in a shoe whilst the count was positive just hasn't been worth as profitable as if I'd have backed out and took a good profit when I was way up. Looking at my stats, there were considerably more than 50% of shoes where I'd been up 20-30 and ended up with 10 units of profit or decimated my bankroll, than ones where I realised close to the maximum profit from the shoe. Here some regular scenarios for me:

Hello Mors,
From one recreational player to another:
Whether you call yourself a pro, an academic or a recreational player has nothing to do with how you fare at the BJ table. What governs how you do at the BJ table is the math.
You may parse your personal experience any way you like. You may start and stop at any time you like. You may use any such system you like. What you should understand is that the math doesn’t “care” "about you personally" or how you divvy up your game.
The math is the reality, the ultimate truth. If you use the math, you will do better than if you don’t.
There is a wealth of knowledge available to you on this forum. Open your mind to it and learn.
As an aside, as a recreational player, I find the math a great part of the fun.

[21forme]

Hello Mors,
From one recreational player to another:
Whether you call yourself a pro, an academic or a recreational player has nothing to do with how you fare at the BJ table. What governs how you do at the BJ table is the math.
You may parse your personal experience any way you like. You may start and stop at any time you like. You may use any such system you like. What you should understand is that the math doesn’t “care” "about you personally" or how you divvy up your game.
The math is the reality, the ultimate truth. If you use the math, you will do better than if you don’t.
There is a wealth of knowledge available to you on this forum. Open your mind to it and learn.
As an aside, as a recreational player, I find the math a great part of the fun.

Very well said.

[DSchles]

One of the most frustrating things about a newcomer who comes here and ask questions is that, a ridiculous amount of the time, when he gets perfectly good answers from all the experienced pros, the newcomer simply wants to persevere, tell his side of the story, and explain to all of us why, ultimately, he respects our viewpoints, but he is right for whatever WRONG reason!

Absolutely NOTHING that you write above makes the slightest bit of sense, and you can try to justify it 100 more ways to Sunday, and it will all be claptrap. The notion that you think you'll never get to the long run so you may as well play differently in the short run is completely aberrational and not founded in any logic whatsoever. Suppose you had a biased coin that was 60-40 heads. And we tossed it once and you got to call. Would you be stupid enough to argue that, since you won't have the luxury of the long run and thousands of tosses, it makes no difference if you call heads or tails for your one shot? How dumb would that be?

Bottom line: this has now all been explained to you. To me, there are really only two choices: 1) learn from what's being told to you, and do it our way; or 2) ignore us and continue doing it your way at your own peril. But please stop with choice number three, which, apparently is where YOU attempt to explain to us why your way is just fine. It isn't, and saying it ten more times won't help your cause. Your personal results on CV or elsewhere are utterly meaningless.

Don

[snakeplisskin]

You can use your stop win/loss strategy when you play a CSM.