Developing a Plan

[rhpmike]

I've played poker professionally for years and one thing it taught me is that a casino is not where I want to make a living. Now I own a business and just play poker recreationally. Thankfully I'm in LA and so this is easy, but I still make 6-10 trips to vegas per year.
Poker players don't get comps ... at least not good ones. For me, there is value with having CET Diamond, for example. I could play the right video poker games at a tiny negative theoretical but there are plenty of -.26% BJ games in Vegas and my theory is that if I put in the time to learn a simple count (like REKO) then I can play a breakeven or slightly positive expectation game without drawing too much attention. That way I can keep my Diamond Status, which has some value to me, maybe be a slight favorite, and not get too much heat.


My question is whether these are realistic goals. So, for example, can you achieve a +0.25% game with a 1:4 spread in a game that is normally -0.26% and largely avoid heat? For specific game, consider S17, LS, DAS, RSA 6 deck shoe 75% pen.

[nighterfighter]

I'm going to take a stab at this, but I might be completely wrong...

BJ, and most table games, don't generate very many comps, at all. Playing enough to generate comps would require a bet spread, as you said, for the pit boss to update your rating to earn comps. But of course, by doing so, that draws attention because they will notice you are spreading.

I'm also not sure that a 1-4 spread is enough to break even.

You might be better off at Video Poker, if your goal is to get those sort of comps. I think there is a website regarding CET Diamond, and how much coin-in you need to hit diamond. I'm pretty sure your equivalent "coin-in" for Blackjack will be around a hundred times higher than that.

I will now let someone else correct everything I said.

[ZeeBabar]

I don’t know about others but I was still playing red chips when I started getting comps. Playing DD games (betting $25-$150) and 6 deck games spreading from $10 to $80 or occasionally playing 2 x $90, I started getting comps for Tunica, Biloxi and Las Vegas and don’t believe that you cannot get comps playing BJ. I never played any other game.

[rhpmike]

Yeah, you can definitely get comps playing BJ. I get free Sunday-Thursday stays pretty much whenever, some offers for free flights to less popular destinations (laughlin, etc), etc. My question is whether we can turn a -.26 game into a +.25-+.75 game with a 1:4 spread with REKO count.

[Counting_Is_Fun]

Yeah, you can definitely get comps playing BJ. I get free Sunday-Thursday stays pretty much whenever, some offers for free flights to less popular destinations (laughlin, etc), etc. My question is whether we can turn a -.26 game into a +.25-+.75 game with a 1:4 spread with REKO count.

I will let the experts respond...but if you are talking 6 or 8 deck games, then no I don't think 1:4 spread is enough to break even...even with perfect BS and indexes. If double deck, then yes probably around break even. Get CVCX and Norm's work will answer all your questions.

[Splitting Tens]

Are you planning to wong? If you do so to an extreme (and never play any negative count), you'll make money in the long run flat betting... Assuming you never wong, index play alone should bring that -.26% to a very slightly positive value for you, allowing you to make a little.. So, yes, you will likely win more than you lose with a 1:4 spread and the conditions you described.Whether or not you can cover travel expenses is a totally different question.

[Counting_Is_Fun]

Are you planning to wong? If you do so to an extreme (and never play any negative count), you'll make money in the long run flat betting... Assuming you never wong, index play alone should bring that -.26% to a very slightly positive value for you, allowing you to make a little.. So, yes, you will likely win more than you lose with a 1:4 spread and the conditions you described.Whether or not you can cover travel expenses is a totally different question.

So this guy is now giving forum advice...yikes tread lightly all you newbies.

[Splitting Tens]

So this guy is now giving forum advice...yikes tread lightly all you newbies.

I participate in conversations here as I am actively learning the game. I post in hopes of being corrected and learning when my understanding is off. If I have made a false statement, show me where it is incorrect.
Breaking down my post.. I have suggested that.
1. If you never play at a negative count, you'll make money in the long run flat betting. I'll stand by this. If you only play at the slight disadvantage of TC = 0 and all positive counts, you will have the advantage over the house. Sometimes you'll win, sometimes you'll lose. Overall, you will do well.
2. Index play alone will give you an extra .26% against the house edge. I'm willing to be corrected on this. The adjustment will be very, very close, but I don't have an exact number.
3. If you play with all indices, you are playing a very close to even game. Then if you bet more with favorable counts than you do with unfavorable counts, you'll win more than you lose. This is just math. A 1:4 spread may not be exciting or bring great profits, but you will win more than you lose in the long run. I'll stand by this statement as well.

[ZeeBabar]

I participate in conversations here as I am actively learning the game. I post in hopes of being corrected and learning when my understanding is off. If I have made a false statement, show me where it is incorrect.
Breaking down my post.. I have suggested that.
1. If you never play at a negative count, you'll make money in the long run flat betting. I'll stand by this. If you only play at the slight disadvantage of TC = 0 and all positive counts, you will have the advantage over the house. Sometimes you'll win, sometimes you'll lose. Overall, you will do well.
2. Index play alone will give you an extra .26% against the house edge. I'm willing to be corrected on this. The adjustment will be very, very close, but I don't have an exact number.
3. If you play with all indices, you are playing a very close to even game. Then if you bet more with favorable counts than you do with unfavorable counts, you'll win more than you lose. This is just math. A 1:4 spread may not be exciting or bring great profits, but you will win more than you lose in the long run. I'll stand by this statement as well.

Not practical, is it? How often does a 6 deck shoe go into a negative count, TC-1 or lower? You be getting up and down like a YO-YO.

[Freightman]

I participate in conversations here as I am actively learning the game. I post in hopes of being corrected and learning when my understanding is off. If I have made a false statement, show me where it is incorrect.
Breaking down my post.. I have suggested that.
1. If you never play at a negative count, you'll make money in the long run flat betting. I'll stand by this. If you only play at the slight disadvantage of TC = 0 and all positive counts, you will have the advantage over the house. Sometimes you'll win, sometimes you'll lose. Overall, you will do well.
2. Index play alone will give you an extra .26% against the house edge. I'm willing to be corrected on this. The adjustment will be very, very close, but I don't have an exact number.
3. If you play with all indices, you are playing a very close to even game. Then if you bet more with favorable counts than you do with unfavorable counts, you'll win more than you lose. This is just math. A 1:4 spread may not be exciting or bring great profits, but you will win more than you lose in the long run. I'll stand by this statement as well.

To avoid the crap comments directed to you, might be an idea to preface your comments with something like - I’m a newbie, my comments are subject to confirmation - I’m trying to learn by participation.

The troll you are responding to likely hasn’t read the entire thread, and has taken delight with his comments in post 9. Though you are off, the errors are not egregious, and would be tempered with the suggested preface, or something similar. Further, your comments, though not part of accepted norm, are clearly identified by comments made stating your inexperience and being prone to errors. Dont worry about the schmuck. He will needle you with additional ridiculousness on your comments made to explain your approach.

[Stealth]

So, yes, you will likely win more than you lose with a 1:4 spread and the conditions you described.

Well, fiirst let me correct you. You can beat single deck with a 1-4 but are hopelessly a dog in all the other games and the comps will be meaningless while the heat will be increasing if you have good variance and win.

You are better advised to protectyour status using Video Poker. Become familiar with "theoretical" that is used by the marketing departments to determine comp levels. Often times your host can provide guidance on what machines have what "theo". The theo for VP is not as good as for slots but slots require more training and have higher variances.

DO NOT ASSUME THAT BECAUSE YOU ARE A GOOD POKER PLAYER THAT YOU ARE A GOOD VIDEO POKER PLAYER. Take the time to get one of the online (mobile?) training apps to learn the perfect basic strategy for the game. I will tell you that it will take considerable practice to achieve a level of competency (99+% accurate play). Your comps will come in the mail for free play and careful thought needs to be given on how to handle them, remember they are watching. Other comps can come from your host and remember to be aggressive in askling, they don't just hand them out!

Most stores will tell you how much "coin in" is necessary to achieve each level of their rewards program. Govern yourself by the RoR on you roll.

Have fun and remember, if it were easy everyone would do it!

[Stealth]

So, yes, you will likely win more than you lose with a 1:4 spread and the conditions you described.

Well, fiirst let me correct you. You can beat single deck with a 1-4 but are hopelessly a dog in all the other games and the comps will be meaningless while the heat will be increasing if you have good variance and win.

You are better advised to protectyour status using Video Poker. Become familiar with "theoretical" that is used by the marketing departments to determine comp levels. Often times your host can provide guidance on what machines have what "theo". The theo for VP is not as good as for slots but slots require more training and have higher variances.

DO NOT ASSUME THAT BECAUSE YOU ARE A GOOD POKER PLAYER THAT YOU ARE A GOOD VIDEO POKER PLAYER. Take the time to get one of the online (mobile?) training apps to learn the perfect basic strategy for the game. I will tell you that it will take considerable practice to achieve a level of competency (99+% accurate play). Your comps will come in the mail for free play and careful thought needs to be given on how to handle them, remember they are watching. Other comps can come from your host and remember to be aggressive in askling, they don't just hand them out!

Most stores will tell you how much "coin in" is necessary to achieve each level of their rewards program. Govern yourself by the RoR on you roll.

Have fun and remember, if it were easy everyone would do it!

PS The game identified by Dog Hand will deteriorate to a negative by taking away Stand and Surrender. And the over and under on winning more than you lose is at best a tossup.

[Counting_Is_Fun]

Well, fiirst let me correct you. You can beat single deck with a 1-4 but are hopelessly a dog in all the other games and the comps will be meaningless while the heat will be increasing if you have good variance and win.

You are better advised to protectyour status using Video Poker. Become familiar with "theoretical" that is used by the marketing departments to determine comp levels. Often times your host can provide guidance on what machines have what "theo". The theo for VP is not as good as for slots but slots require more training and have higher variances.

DO NOT ASSUME THAT BECAUSE YOU ARE A GOOD POKER PLAYER THAT YOU ARE A GOOD VIDEO POKER PLAYER. Take the time to get one of the online (mobile?) training apps to learn the perfect basic strategy for the game. I will tell you that it will take considerable practice to achieve a level of competency (99+% accurate play). Your comps will come in the mail for free play and careful thought needs to be given on how to handle them, remember they are watching. Other comps can come from your host and remember to be aggressive in askling, they don't just hand them out!

Most stores will tell you how much "coin in" is necessary to achieve each level of their rewards program. Govern yourself by the RoR on you roll.

Have fun and remember, if it were easy everyone would do it!

PS The game identified by Dog Hand will deteriorate to a negative by taking away Stand and Surrender. And the over and under on winning more than you lose is at best a tossup.

The only problem I see with your post is that you're quoting something I never said? That was Splitting Tens, not me.