+EV machine -- How can this exist?

[Splitting Tens]

Maybe for a SIM, but my multiple millions of hands is REAL LIFE HANDS PLAYED. my sim was ran for more than 200 million : ) cheers!

You played "multiple millions of hands" on this machine?

[ummagumma]

I would caution about this type of data. I believe you will find removing the high variance payoff (Royal FLush) from the calculation for house edge will result in the edge being over -3% ( obviously game dependent). Since the number of rounds to get to the Royal is about 40,000, you may be kidding yourself on the positive ev game you have found.

Such a good point Stealth and one many players miss in numerous situations

[UK-21]

On a similar note, I once did some sums around the RTP of a well-played online slots game. Five reels with four carrying 30 possible notional symbols and the last 44, and across the five only one possible combination to pay a jackpot. I calculated that there was a greater probability of winning a Saturday lottery selection in the UK than hitting the jackpot on this game. Recalculating the RTP with this one payout removed from the picture left a truly criminal figure. In actual fact, out of the 35m+ combinations only a few combinations paid anything decent, with the majority of winning lines paying out the equivalent of some free spins. Here's the link to the details behind the reels:

http://www.slotbeaters.com/slotstats/thunderstruck.htm

[Joe Mama]

How can a casino offer a game where the player has an edge every single hand?

1) A lot of times the denomination is so low that perfect play is < minimum wage job.
2) Imperfect play (which is the norm for a ploppie) is negative EV
3) Advertised "100+%" machines may have multiple games that are negative EV, and the uninformed player "assumes" all games on the machine are "100%+".

[mathbandit]

First, we DID find and play a .17% positive edge machine and we did sim it before hand.

The restrictive bet limits made it a monstor labor issue to beat for any amounts we were interested in and we were traveling 1,000 mile to get to the store. Just not worth it.

A local could have used it to genertate comps and to make a modest hourly rate but that didn't fit our agenda.

You did the math wrong its not worth that much stealth. The one major rule isnt worth as much in this game as you're thinking it is. I know we are talking about the same game because at first glance that what we thought it was as well, but its less.

[mathbandit]

1 hand a second
60 hands a minute x 60 =
3,600 an hour x 24 hours =
86,400 a day x 7 days =
604, 800 a week x 52 weeks =
31,449,600 a year.

^^^^^ = not possible

1 hand a second
60 hands a minute x 60 =
3,600 an hour x 8 hours =
28,800 a day x 5 days =
144,000 a week x 52 weeks =
7,488,00 a year

^^^^^ = highly unlikely

^^^^^ = you are full of bullshit.

You and that bullshitometer of yours...

I have a group of players and we play 900-1000 hands per hour each. Not hard to get into the millions at all.

[Splitting Tens]

...
I have a group of players and we play 900-1000 hands per hour each. Not hard to get into the millions at all.

900 hands per hour is one hand every four seconds. That's pretty quick for folks who are playing "perfect" basic strategy in a game with a new twist. "Multiple Millions" >3,000,000. 10 people (I don't know how big your group is) x 1000 hands an hour = 10,000 hands an hour. 3,000,000 / 10,000 = 300 hours of play. 300 / 24 = 12.5 days of continuous play for ten people in a group. Assuming that they are human and need to do things like eat, sleep, go to the bathroom, etc. We'll keep it at 8 hours a day... 12.5 x 3 = 37.5 days at eight hours a day. Where in the world do you find a group of 10 folks willing to do nothing for an entire month, aside from playing these games?

[mathbandit]

900 hands per hour is one hand every four seconds. That's pretty quick for folks who are playing "perfect" basic strategy in a game with a new twist. "Multiple Millions" >3,000,000. 10 people (I don't know how big your group is) x 1000 hands an hour = 10,000 hands an hour. 3,000,000 / 10,000 = 300 hours of play. 300 / 24 = 12.5 days of continuous play for ten people in a group. Assuming that they are human and need to do things like eat, sleep, go to the bathroom, etc. We'll keep it at 8 hours a day... 12.5 x 3 = 37.5 days at eight hours a day. Where in the world do you find a group of 10 folks willing to do nothing for an entire month, aside from playing these games?

Who says we have only been playing for 1 month?

[mathbandit]

The game is definitely not worth much, it just wasnt making sense to me why they would offer a +ev game

[mathbandit]

I would caution about this type of data. I believe you will find removing the high variance payoff (Royal FLush) from the calculation for house edge will result in the edge being over -3% ( obviously game dependent). Since the number of rounds to get to the Royal is about 40,000, you may be kidding yourself on the positive ev game you have found.

It would still be +EV... just high variance..

What if a guy offered you this:

He has 10,000 cards to choose from, 1 of which is a joker. You pay him $1 for every pick. If you pick the joker, he will pay you $10,010. It might take you a LONG time to realize your EV, but you still would have a +ev situation.

[mathbandit]

If you mentioned the group of players before and I missed it, then I would understand your ire. But, I don't recall any prior reference to a group, hence my skpeticism.

Ok but i never said i sat and played all these hands. I said i have a huge sample.

[Splitting Tens]

Who says we have only been playing for 1 month?

My point is, no matter how you break up their time, that is a huge time commitment from a whole bunch of other folks. 4 hours a day for 74 days? Two hours a day for 148 days? The question stands: how in the world would you get that huge of a time commitment from a group of folks?

[mathbandit]

My point is, no matter how you break up their time, that is a huge time commitment from a whole bunch of other folks. 4 hours a day for 74 days? Two hours a day for 148 days? The question stands: how in the world would you get that huge of a time commitment from a group of folks?

It was not hard to do.