+EV machine -- How can this exist?

[ShipTheCookies]

My post was a question, how can a +ev game exist, and why would a casino offer such a game?

This was already explained to you.

Go into any casino with FPDW and ask management why that big ole "OVER 100% PAYBACK" sign is there.

[mathbandit]

This was already explained to you.

Go into any casino with FPDW and ask management why that big ole "OVER 100% PAYBACK" sign is there.

I was not re-asking the question.

[Splitting Tens]

I'm not going to argue whether or not such a game exists... However, I do have some questions...
* How do you know that it is positive EV? I don't take "The casino tells me so" as good enough...
* If it has a couple of interesting rules to give it positive EV, it certainly would only happen with specialized basic strategy tables for that specific rule set. How would those be developed (short of giving the rule set to a mathematician with the ability to do billions of simulations)?

[mathbandit]

It's your money, you're an adult, but don't delude yourself. If you do not know the edge, you are gambling...genius.

I do know the edge, genius!

[mathbandit]

I'm not going to argue whether or not such a game exists... However, I do have some questions...
* How do you know that it is positive EV? I don't take "The casino tells me so" as good enough...
* If it has a couple of interesting rules to give it positive EV, it certainly would only happen with specialized basic strategy tables for that specific rule set. How would those be developed (short of giving the rule set to a mathematician with the ability to do billions of simulations)?

I ran a sim. The casino doesn't advertise it.

[mathbandit]

"(By the way, i have a HUGE sample size -- multiple millions -- and results can confirm the rules.)"

Asshat, 200 million is a MINIMUM to be statistically valid, according to Norm's CVCX.

Maybe for a SIM, but my multiple millions of hands is REAL LIFE HANDS PLAYED. my sim was ran for more than 200 million : ) cheers!

[ummagumma]

mathbandit. +ev games exist all over the place. The trick is first to be able to recognise that fact and then act on that information correctly.

[RCJH]

This was already explained to you.

Go into any casino with FPDW and ask management why that big ole "OVER 100% PAYBACK" sign is there.

Those signs may be misleading.

If a major progressive paid out, FOR THAT DAY OR WEEK the machine paid out over 100%. Over the course of a lifetime, however, it probably isn't true. Machines are calibrated to generate a specific hold, over the lifetime of the machine (think N0).

[ShipTheCookies]

Those signs may be misleading.

If a major progressive paid out, FOR THAT DAY OR WEEK the machine paid out over 100%. Over the course of a lifetime, however, it probably isn't true. Machines are calibrated to generate a specific hold, over the lifetime of the machine (think N0).

With optimal play, the payback on FPDW is 100.7620%. The reason why the casino advertises this, is because they know that 99.54% of players who play this game don't play "optimally" and are indeed playing at less than 100%. And thats why they can put in these few so called "+EV" machines and still make a killing. That was the point I was trying to make.

[SkinnyBJplayer]

"With optimal play, the payback on FPDW is 100.7620%. "

Can that be correct?

[RCJH]

With optimal play, the payback on FPDW is 100.7620%. The reason why the casino advertises this, is because they know that 99.54% of players who play this game don't play "optimally" and are indeed playing at less than 100%. And thats why they can put in these few so called "+EV" machines and still make a killing. That was the point I was trying to make.

True.

And for those not familiar, this means "Full Pay Deuces Wild". Not every Deuces Wild is full pay, and therefore not every DW is +EV.

[Stealth]

Why did you quit?

First, we DID find and play a .17% positive edge machine and we did sim it before hand.

The restrictive bet limits made it a monstor labor issue to beat for any amounts we were interested in and we were traveling 1,000 mile to get to the store. Just not worth it.

A local could have used it to genertate comps and to make a modest hourly rate but that didn't fit our agenda.

[Stealth]

With optimal play, the payback on FPDW is 100.7620%. The reason why the casino advertises this, is because they know that 99.54% of players who play this game don't play "optimally" and are indeed playing at less than 100%. And thats why they can put in these few so called "+EV" machines and still make a killing. That was the point I was trying to make.

I would caution about this type of data. I believe you will find removing the high variance payoff (Royal FLush) from the calculation for house edge will result in the edge being over -3% ( obviously game dependent). Since the number of rounds to get to the Royal is about 40,000, you may be kidding yourself on the positive ev game you have found.