Well, they're having the leaderboard contest again, and guess what? Same thing! An incredibly high number of high counts - and it rarely falls. This time I'm going all in to win a leaderboard prize, so I will continue playing despite my clumping concerns. Anyone have a strategy for playing against a suspected clumping ASM? I think someone said to play 21+3 side bet, which makes sense. And I've actually seen it hit a lot in these games.
Assuming face cards are clumped together, it doesn't make sense to double on 11, 10 and 9 because you can't get a face card. For the same reason, you split 2-7 pairs against 2-7 in hope to get the double opportunity, since your chance of getting a face card is lowered by clumping, you don't want to split these pairs, too. I think soft double is OK. One more thing 12-14 against up card 2-6, if most of the cards on the table are low card, you may want to hit instead of stand. These are the modifiction I used when I played ASM. Also I change my bet ramp. If I am in a losing streak, I lower my bets. After the net loss reached six hands, I will not place a big bet on that shoe. Like lowering my spread from 18 to 1 to 4 to 1.Originally Posted by cottage cheese
I also witnessed an extreme AP who splits every face card pairs because he believes in face card clumping. Only seen him twice. The first time there were only three people at the table. Many times he splits face cards to three hands and get 20 for all three hands. Of course, he left tables a big winner. By the way, everybody else at the table was a loser, so they hate him. I am not. Because I know why he was doing it. The second time it was a full table. You can see the face card clump pattern, but when he split, the shoe has run out of faces most of the times. He was a loser that day. So I really don't recommend people doing this since it is 50/50. That being said, the safest way to play is to find the hand-shuffled game. I only spend 10% of my time playing ASM BJ. But it is all for research purpose only. I expect to lose money or flat.
Not 21+3 side bet which pays 5/10/20/30 but TOP3 which pays 90 to 1 if you get three of a kind and 270 to 1 if you get suited three of a kind. Because the shoe is clumped, I see ploppies winning TOP3 side bet like crazy. Too bad that casino employee refinery ruined a good thread. I was hoping more people discuss their experience with the TOP3 side bet.
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