Gut-wrenching

[jacquesblack]

I am wondering how many of you out there have suffered a loss comparable to mine in a period of 50-100 hours - and how you would deal with it?
Since March 31 I have played about 73 hours of blackjack and suffered a gut-wrenching loss of slightly more than five standard deviations.
Something like this has you seriously worried that you are doing something wrong but I believe I have staked correctly in relation to my bankroll and that this is simply a statistical aberration.
Earlier in my blackjack career I would probably have taken a break of a week or two to get over such a psychologically draining downswing but now I simply plough on confident that I will overcome this serious assault on my bankroll.

[G Man]

Admitting you're not cheated,one of the things to look at is maybe you overestimate your EV. This could happen as the result of a mistake in evaluation or by playing less rounds per hour that you thought at first. Can you show us the sims you did for the game(s) you're playing?

[jacquesblack]

Admitting you're not cheated,one of the things to look at is maybe you overestimate your EV. This could happen as the result of a mistake in evaluation or by playing less rounds per hour that you thought at first. Can you show us the sims you did for the game(s) you're playing?

For most of this loss I was playing a 4d game with penetration varying between one and 1.6 decks cut off. My spread was one hand of 5 to two hands of 80 or 90. Also played some 6d with the same spread and one-deck cut-off with all dealers. This was ENHC with das, doa, rsa and no insurance. I averaged about 100 rounds per hour. According to sims EV is 25-28 ph and sd is about 135 for the 6d game and 145 for the 4d. I lost 4.1k in 73 hours

[BJGenius007]

According to sims EV is 25-28 ph and sd is about 135 for the 6d game and 145 for the 4d. I lost 4.1k in 73 hours

EV 25-28 per hand or per hour?

[ZeeBabar]

I am wondering how many of you out there have suffered a loss comparable to mine in a period of 50-100 hours - and how you would deal with it?
Since March 31 I have played about 73 hours of blackjack and suffered a gut-wrenching loss of slightly more than five standard deviations.
Something like this has you seriously worried that you are doing something wrong but I believe I have staked correctly in relation to my bankroll and that this is simply a statistical aberration.
Earlier in my blackjack career I would probably have taken a break of a week or two to get over such a psychologically draining downswing but now I simply plough on confident that I will overcome this serious assault on my bankroll.

I think you should take a break. I am not questioning your game, just that we are not machines. Continuing on without a break affects your health, it gets you burnt out. You may recover the money but your love for the game, the casino, the profession gets damaged in ways you don't see.

[Splitting Tens]

Mathematically, such nasty spells are going to happen from time to time... All the authors I have read talk about dealing with losing streaks - some lasting months. They suggest two things: 1. Verifying your calculations and strategy - just in case. 2. Taking a break (days? weeks?) so that you enter your next session rested, relaxed, and ready to play at the top of your ability.

[Midwest Player]

Gut-wrenching really depends on the level of play. A huge loss at the red chip level isn't too bad, but at the black chip level it is really gut-wrenching. I suggest downsize your bets to see if it turns around. Also make sure you somehow didn't invert the count.

[RS]

Gut-wrenching really depends on the level of play. A huge loss at the red chip level isn't too bad, but at the black chip level it is really gut-wrenching. I suggest downsize your bets to see if it turns around. Also make sure you somehow didn't invert the count.

A 5-SD negative swing is gut-wrenching any way you cut it. Someone with a small bankroll is going to be "hurt" when they lose $5k, as someone with a larger bankroll when they lose $50k.


As far as having a 5-SD negative swing, although it's certainly possible, it's definitely not something that I would be like, "Oh yeah, shit happens, keep plugging away!" I'd definitely be wary about what's going on. I would check the following, in no particular order:

1. Make sure my skills are accurate, including the fact that I'm betting the correct amount when I should be. Over-betting your intended spread is going to increase variance. It's unlikely that bad play would be the cause of a -5 SD swing, unless you're playing as if you're brain-dead. Making small mistakes here and there aren't going to be the cause of such a huge loss.

2. Make sure the sim is accurate to what you're playing up against. If you simmed a game with 60 rounds per hour but you're actually playing a game at 180 rounds per hour....that's obviously going to effect the math. Small details like the advantage (and thus EV, re: speed of game), whether there's RSA/DAS/S17/etc. doesn't really matter, because those things are very small and won't be noticeable in a short amount of time. Although, you should still make sure that's all accurate, regardless. Make sure you're entering results properly (hours or rounds played as well as actual result).

3. Make sure you're not getting cheated. I'm not really sure how to test for this necessarily, other than there are some things you can do to gauge it. For one, you can count shoes and see if many end positive, that would mean there's at least a better chance that the decks are shorted of 10's and/or aces. See if they're doing any kind of funny business, like dealing seconds. Is this a place in the USA or South America? Not that cheating can't happen in the USA, but I'd be much more skeptical if it was out of the USA.

4. MAKE SURE YOU'RE DOING THE MATH CORRECTLY!!!! It's possible that you didn't do the math the right way and you messed something up. EG: Perhaps you squared a number when you should have found the square root of it, or vice versa. Do your results intuitively make sense to be at -5 SD? EG: If you're spreading 5-100 and you're down $500, then that's obviously not going to be -5 SD's. If you're down $15k....then yeah, that's pretty messed up.


If I had to guess, I'd guess on you being cheated or you're doing something wrong (sim, math, etc.).

[cc12b]

Some people will call "stop loss" is voodoo but I think human brain is not made of silicon chips. I would take a break to refill my BR and sharpening my skill on sim. I have my hat off to those who have nerve of steel. The more you lost the more depress and errors it becomes. My 2 cents

[G Man]

Don's BJA3 has a full chapter on this, the ODP (Optimal Departure Point)

[G Man]

Something is clearly wrong here. You CAN'T have an EV of 25-28 per hour with a SD of only 135, that would be a c-score of 342 for a ENHC and NI game. Impossible. You probably mean 135 PER HAND or 1350 per hour which is a very bad game.Can you clarify please?

[G Man]

Are you crazy??? 25-28 per hand with the games and spread he announces....

[stopgambling]

Your max bet of 2x $90 is around $120 , So losing around close to 40 max bets in 73 hours is certainly not a 5 SD event. i have lost 80 max bets in around 100 to 150 hour stretch ( from fuzzy memory) . While it sucks it certainly is not anything out of the ordinary. i am guessing it is just your emotion at work . Usually is with ranting.