Jeopardy

[Freightman]

Freightman, here is a direct quote from your post #29: "...because the lady, though smart, doesn’t get optimal betting and will wager a shitload."

If you paid any attention to this show or read James comments after he lost, you would have never made such a male chauvinistic comment. One paid sports gambling site I'm a member of said she used "perfect math" to determine her final bet. She did not bet a "shitload" without thinking as you seem to think.

James said if he was in her position this is how much he would have wagered. He didn't sell his competition short. He knew what she was going to bet, and he was right all the way down to the extra dollar.

Dipshit
You’re hopeless. Male, female - it makes no difference. I’m pleased though that you caught on to the fact that she’s a female. There may be hope for you yet.

Your real issue is your inability to understand, and execute advanced tactics. As I’m not known for patience, I see no point in guiding you. Attempting to do so would direct you in an endless circle of non ending iterations - akin to putting a dog in a ro7nd room, telling him to pee in the corner. Good luck.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

Holzauer was a guest on Jeff Ma's podcast.

https://soundcloud.com/bettheprocess

[BankerCA]

A few things to consider...

1. As of the date this match was filmed, James Holzauers first episode had not aired yet.
2. With 5 shows filmed each day, I believe it is reasonable to assume they film Monday thru Fridays shows on that day. (vs. something like Wednesday thru Tuesday) If this is true, since this was a Monday show, she did NOT get a opportunity to see Holzauer in the shows prior to hers (contestants sit in audience and watch prior shows filmed on that day, being the first match she may have not had this opportunity).


What information did she receive that morning besides the fact that he had won 30 plus games and $2.4 million?
She defiantly did not have the information that everyone else had from seeing 30 plus games.

I believe she knew she would need to play an aggressive game against any player that averaged over $70k per show, let alone Holzauer.

Holzauer had answered 31 out of 32 Final Jeopardy questions correctly (97%) going into this match. Given this as well as the above information, I believe Holzauer did NOT make the optimal wager given the set of circumstances, Unless Holzauer did not feel confident in the final Jeopardy category. She made the optimal wager, however I believe under the exact same circumstance a player in her position will only make that wager about 80% of the time, therefore I believe Holzauer made the incorrect wager.

With her wager although optimal, with her being a librarian she most likely had extreme confidence in the Final Jeopardy category (Shakespeare's Time). She simply put all her eggs in a single basket.

[Dbs6582]

BankerCA, you got a couple facts wrong so I'll set the record straight since I see a lot of people are interested...and I can see Feightman doesn't have a clue, as if that's something new. Lol.

The final show was taped March 12th, which is Tuesday. So the lady, Emma Boettcher, had watched James play. It should be also pointed out that even though the first episode had not aired yet, all the contestants knew James strategy by the time Emma played and were coping it. They knew it was the only way to beat him.

In the episode James lost, the three contestants came into the final round with: 3rd place = $11,000, 2nd place (James) = $23,400 and 1st place (Emma) = $24,799. Emma wagered $20,201, which gave her $46,801, a dollar more than what James would've earned with a double-down bet.

This is why James was only concerned about 3rd place and bet $1,399. This amount meant 3rd place could not overtake him. If James missed the question, he'd still have $22,001, which is one dollar more than 3rd place if 3rd place doubles down and gets the answer right.

So for the record, both James and Emma bet optimally. Emma did not bet a "shitload" and not know what she was doing, which is what Freightman thinks.

Here are some direct quotes from James: "I knew I could only win if Emma missed Final Jeopardy, as there was no way she wouldn't bet to cover my all-in bet, so my only concern was getting overtaken by third place, and I bet just enough to make sure of locking him out. Betting big would have looked good for the cameras, but now I turn my straight bet (Emma misses) into a parlay (Emma misses and I get it right)."

[BankerCA]

The final show was taped March 12th, which is Tuesday. So the lady, Emma Boettcher, had watched James play.

In the New York Times article, she states she was the first contestant that day, and had not seen him play. She wasn't even aware that he started with the higher value questions until she played against him.

This is why James was only concerned about 3rd place and bet $1,399. This amount meant 3rd place could not overtake him. If James missed the question, he'd still have $22,001, which is one dollar more than 3rd place if 3rd place doubles down and gets the answer right

Yes, this is the correct strategy if it is believed she would bet enough to over take him in Final Jeopardy (Which he later said, this is what he believed)

The issue is, as Don mentioned, how many times have we seen a player A)leading into final Jeopardy B)Correctly answer the question C)and still lose?
I believe although she happened to bet optimal in this situation, past performance shows many players would have not.
All I am saying is that I believe there is a greater chance of a player not betting enough in that situation vs. James incorrectly answering the Final question incorrect.

[DSchles]

In the episode James lost, the three contestants came into the final round with: 3rd place = $11,000, 2nd place (James) = $23,400 and 1st place (Emma) = $24,799.

You didn't mean to write $24,799. You meant to write $26,600. The former is what Holzhauer wound up with at the very end.

Don

[Dbs6582]

In the New York Times article, she states she was the first contestant that day, and had not seen him play. She wasn't even aware that he started with the higher value questions until she played against him.




Yes, this is the correct strategy if it is believed she would bet enough to over take him in Final Jeopardy (Which he later said, this is what he believed)

The issue is, as Don mentioned, how many times have we seen a player A)leading into final Jeopardy B)Correctly answer the question C)and still lose?
I believe although she happened to bet optimal in this situation, past performance shows many players would have not.
All I am saying is that I believe there is a greater chance of a player not betting enough in that situation vs. James incorrectly answering the Final question incorrect.

This might be the case under a normal Jeopardy situation. But this is far from a normal Jeopardy situation. Even if Emma hadn’t watched James play before, she knew he had won 30 or so straight times, so she knew he was smarter than your average Joe-Champion Jeopardy player.

Given the situation, I do think the majority of players (like over 95%) would have bet the way she did. I’m not conceding that point.

In an article I read on James, he said his competitors were following his strategy the longer he played. I didn’t read the article you read, but I’d expect Emma would have at least noticed his strategy early on and would have probably incorporated some of it into her’s. I might be wrong on this point. I’ll conceed to you on this one.

But Freightman thinking Emma bet a “shitload” in Final Jeopardy without thinking made no sense. She didn’t get this far without having some clue on how to bet.

[Dbs6582]

You didn't mean to write $24,799. You meant to write $26,600. The former is what Holzhauer wound up with at the very end.

Don

Don, my bad. You are correct. I was coping the numbers from an article and got them wrong. Your numbers are correct. Emma had $26,600 before Final Jeopardy and bet $20,201 and ended up with $46,801.

[DSchles]

Given the situation, I do think the majority of players (like over 95%) would have bet the way she did. I’m not conceding that point.

Yes, you ARE conceding that point! You're not arguing that point! :-)

Don

[Freightman]

Once more for the Dipshit
For reference, please note my post 31, Dons post 34, and my confirmation post 38, as well as link in post 37.

The lady should know that James is a killer at final jeopardy, that the odds of him getting it right are enormous. She needs to be very confident that she will get it as well. If she’s not, then her final wager must take into account her “theoretical” deep deep knowledge (my post 31) of James tactics. She must, therefore, rethink her final wager to account for both James and her, getting it wrong. Clearly, anyone can see, as I’ve already pointed out, that with wagers made, James would win if the lady gets it wrong, and James gets it right.

Accordingly, she would have looked beyond her “optimal” bet, realized what James had already realized, and would have worked out what James final jeopardy wager would have been - that being 1399, in order to insure a win over the other contestant. This wager, if James gets it right, would bring his total to 24799 - refer to the link in post 37 regarding advanced tactics.

This means, that if she loses final jeopardy, and James gets it right, she would have realized that she required $1.00 more than James, in order to win. That sum is obviously is $24800. Simple arithmetic, therefore, makes her final wager $1800 (Don’s post 34).

Her total, prior to final jeopardy, was $26600. This total minus $24800 (if she loses) would be $24800. She wins.

Yes Dipshit - I get it, clearly better than you.

[21forme]

Once more for the Dipshit

Why do you continue to bother?

[Dbs6582]

Once more for the Dipshit
For reference, please note my post 31, Dons post 34, and my confirmation post 38, as well as link in post 37.

The lady should know that James is a killer at final jeopardy, that the odds of him getting it right are enormous. She needs to be very confident that she will get it as well. If she’s not, then her final wager must take into account her “theoretical” deep deep knowledge (my post 31) of James tactics. She must, therefore, rethink her final wager to account for both James and her, getting it wrong. Clearly, anyone can see, as I’ve already pointed out, that with wagers made, James would win if the lady gets it wrong, and James gets it right.

Accordingly, she would have looked beyond her “optimal” bet, realized what James had already realized, and would have worked out what James final jeopardy wager would have been - that being 1399, in order to insure a win over the other contestant. This wager, if James gets it right, would bring his total to 24799 - refer to the link in post 37 regarding advanced tactics.

This means, that if she loses final jeopardy, and James gets it right, she would have realized that she required $1.00 more than James, in order to win. That sum is obviously is $24800. Simple arithmetic, therefore, makes her final wager $1800 (Don’s post 34).

Her total, prior to final jeopardy, was $26600. This total minus $24800 (if she loses) would be $24800. She wins.

Yes Dipshit - I get it, clearly better than you.

Okay Freightman, I went back and read these posts and get where you're coming from. But you are way, way overthinking this. She was trying to take down the champion, one of the best to every play this game. Most good players get the Final Jeopardy question right, but a person in James's class? He was almost guaranteed to get it right. She had to assume he'd get it right over 95% of the time. Why would she try to get "cute" with her bet, when she could make the sure bet and win outright (no matter what the others bet) when she got the answer right.

What if she plays "cute" like you're suggesting, and James bets it all knowing it's his last game and he'll probably lose anyway. He knew the category and he knew what his opponent did so he had to know she'd most likely get it right. He didn't have much to lose betting it all, and going out in blaze of glory.

Long story short, she went for the knock out punch, which almost everybody would have done in her situation. She didn't pull a Freightman, and do something stupid like over think the situation, and try to show everybody how smart she was. Lol.

[Freightman]

Why do you continue to bother?

You are naturally, correct. However, I felt like putting the Dipshit into place. Point is made, quite well I think. Think I’ll go back to ignoring him.