Originally Posted by
drunk
whether or not your calculation is wrong or right (long run) - reflecting your ability of lack of ability to estimate the probabilities of the outcome of a sports event - is IMO just about everything
the math, which is usually quite simple, is IMO much less of mountain to climb
in the examples you gave the edge you seek is quite small
those who primarily rely on handicapping skills would normally perceive a much larger edge (although in the real world it is likely to shrink and be not as large as perceived)
IMO if you want to beat soccer, then your best path forward is to accumulate as much knowledge as you can about the sport itself and the teams you are betting on
many of your competitors, the other bettors, are not willing to delve deeply into the details, and/or primarily enjoy betting on their home or favorite teams - and that will be the nature of your edge
when you have acquired this knowledge, you should become more proficient in estimating the probabilities of a particular outcome
IMO and my experience the Mathletes are not the ones who profit well by beating sports
it is the handicappers who accomplish this
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