Styles of attack and longevity

[Masterhoudini]

I read your last post in another thread T3 and felt compelled to discuss this in a separate thread since I felt it was an important issue which merits its own attention.

I agree with you, all APs should pick a count which best suits them, but I disagree that there are inherently different camps in terms of style of attack- namely the slash and burn vs. milking it slowly, extending longevity style. I would actually argue that the most successful AP will actually adapt their style of attack according to the tolerance/conditions of the casino and the APs own personal geographical restrictions and personal goals.

I mentioned in my other post, taking 20k lifetime win was a threshold for "attention" at most casinos, I didn't say I got backed off winning 20k. I mentioned that I got backed off after winning 30-50k at several locations as I believe it to be the average from all the casinos I've been to. The key word here is average- in this case probably median. I have been able to clear 6 figures, even 200k+ from certain casinos and NOT received a backoff. You mentioned you are significantly north of this level, as in you've won more than 50k? This is not surprising at all based on my observations. I am eager to here about your experiences of lifetime win at casinos beyond 50k and 100k, very interested actually- as I will tailor my style accordingly even if it means betting from $5-100 again.

I am not an expert at all by any means- far from it actually. But I believe it really all boils down to pinpointing casino tolerance (which is partially based on your spread, act and other factors), and maximizing value from it. My opinion is that it still boils down to lifetime win threshold- whether you take 50k over 2 days or 5 years. Your spread, act and other factors will only buy you time. In terms of longevity and prolonging it- there are other factors woven into that as well aside from the monetary aspect. For example, some APs may actually just enjoy interacting and playing at their local property, unable to travel due to physical and financial restrictions etc.

Believe it or not, I would actually NOT consider myself entirely of the slash and burn style like you've stated. Yes, it is true that I've blasted 2x2000, 2x2500, even 2x3000 on multiple occasions- at many casinos, but this is because I had the OK to do so at those properties as they take heavy action for short periods of time- as in they become sweaty. At other properties, I spread significantly lower, use more cover etc. to try and extend my longevity and make return visits. It is incorrect for you to believe that slash and burn APs do only that. Nevertheless, one important component which also must be considered is competition from other APs and deteriorating conditions. You may do a good job of preserving your own longevity, but once a game is burnt by others, it's done- and then you're kicking yourself for not maximizing your own value. Conditions are deteriorating also just inherently cause of the landscape and the direction in which the casinos are moving towards. So, will there actually be the conditions you've so desperately tried to preserve in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years? Who knows.

At the end of the day, I think it is erroneous and actually detrimental to say that one size fits all in terms of style of attack- you should tailor your style of attack according to casino tolerance and adapt accordingly.

[ZeeBabar]

Beyond casino tolerance and heat.is your personality and your needs, I believe. Some may have the skills, the BR but not the personality and conscience to bet 2x$3000, get a pair of 5 and a pair of 3's against a dealer 6, and end up with with $20k or more with doubles and 're_splits on a single hand.

There are others who just want to make no more than a set amount of money each year.

Some wa t to make tons of money as quickly as possible and others prefer
A steady income.

I am in awe of you guys. Regardless of my BR, I just cannnt do it.

[RS]

I really have no clue what masterhoudini just said. Perhaps if I knew which post of Tthree's you're referring to, I'd understand more.

Not sure what your point is, other than you're saying T3 said some people milk and others slaughter, but you're of the opinion players should do both?

I think (my opinion) most counters play a good game, enough to raise some eyebrows, but not much more. We'll get backed off from time to time, but it definitely isn't a normal experience. Others never want to get backed off and they really just want to milk a small amount, completely flying under the radar with no scrutiny. And of course, others, know full well there's a good chance they'll get backed off, are prepared for a back-off (ie: anticipate a BO), and fire it up.

Of course, different regions, casinos, even shifts or pits make most of us play differently [more aggressively]. I'll be more aggressive in a non-local region, but I wouldn't slash-n-burn it either.

[Three]

Good to here from you MH. I can't speak of the slash and burn type from experience or knowing and discussing with many. I have to make assumptions based on posts and you know what happens when you assume. I just am a bit ignorant on the exact mind set of the slash and burn player. I know they value tolerant stores above all but that is about it. I am delighted to get some specifics from you. I don't expect this much because specifics can be used to ID a person. With that in mind this is specific as I will get.

I am eager to here about your experiences of lifetime win at casinos beyond 50k and 100k, very interested actually- as I will tailor my style accordingly even if it means betting from $5-100 again.

Well I have a back for a lifetime win at one small store of around $50K. I got another BO where I was about break even because I caught them cheating me and made too big a stink. Everyone at the table backed me up and the dealer started lying about it. I was about even there for lots of hours. It is a sweat shop that deals a great game but I was constantly up and down there. If I was ahead it was from hitting a top payout jackpot for mid 4 figures. At large casinos I frequent I haven't updated my lifetime win lately (do it at the end of every year but sometimes I have a reason to do it more frequently) but was told to expect a lifetime win BO at $120K. I am pretty sure I am north of that on at least 2 of them. Another I was close but for some reason this year I have been getting beat up there pretty good while doing very well everywhere else. Every time I ran into the buzz saw this year it was there. I am pretty sure I am down pretty good on the year there but have some nice wins to offset the nightmare sessions. The weird part it is one of the deeper dealt games I play. I know that opens the door for larger swings but I have enough hours there this year I would think I should be ahead pretty good. I crushed this place in previous years but as is often the case things seem to be evening out. I have had big hands go bad with max bet splits and doubles to 8 to 10 max bets swept by the dealer everywhere but a sustained beating has only occurred at this one place this year and has occurred too frequently. Other places I have done well but just don't visit with enough frequency to get close to the lifetime win threshold. I have a couple I visit infrequently where I struggle to stay even or win a little. Obviously wherever you don't play much results take a long time to become a meaningful sampling.

Now I haven't been playing for larger stakes for very long and those that fire away with pumpkins or stacks of purple will not think my action is large but the feedback I get from networking in my area has me betting up against the casinos chokepoint for looking at you a little closer. That is where I want to be for now. I know areas I can bet significantly or be a lot more brazen but they are outside my travel zone for now. I have plans to remedy that situation. The trouble is I haven't quite gone full-time pro yet and still am seeking some answers to issues more unique to pro players so as not to have to learn them the hard way or worse never get the right answer.

[Masterhoudini]

I really have no clue what masterhoudini just said. Perhaps if I knew which post of Tthree's you're referring to, I'd understand more.

Not sure what your point is, other than you're saying T3 said some people milk and others slaughter, but you're of the opinion players should do both?

I think (my opinion) most counters play a good game, enough to raise some eyebrows, but not much more. We'll get backed off from time to time, but it definitely isn't a normal experience. Others never want to get backed off and they really just want to milk a small amount, completely flying under the radar with no scrutiny. And of course, others, know full well there's a good chance they'll get backed off, are prepared for a back-off (ie: anticipate a BO), and fire it up.

Of course, different regions, casinos, even shifts or pits make most of us play differently [more aggressively]. I'll be more aggressive in a non-local region, but I wouldn't slash-n-burn it either.

The post was at the end of this thread

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-hand-high-ROR

Cougfan followed up and summarized my thoughts way better. I didn't articulate my thoughts that well in the first post, my apologies. Thanks Cougfan. But yes RS, I think that players should do both. It is important to recognize the opportunity at a casino and operate accordingly. Slash and burn style at some, milk and fly under the radar at others in order to maximize value. I think by only limiting yourself to one style of play, you are limiting the amount of money you can take from a casino. I see it as diversifying your investments LOL.

My opinion is that while BO's should be avoided, they should not be feared. An AP gives up too much earning potential by living in fear of BO and leaves too early, returns too infrequently, or spreads too low often times

[realestate]

If I think I will get backed off soon what should I do? don't go back for a while or go back and slash and burn

[mushin]

Depends.... If it were me I would play other places (Not go back for a while) in the hopes that you get forgotten..... since you can always slash and burn at a later point in time. There is not sense in burning out someplace earlier than later.

[realestate]

I'm just concerned that they miggt make a procedural change to nullify my edge

[Dieter]

Some people find a game and adapt their style (burn vs milk) to match.

Some people pick a style, and then find games that suit that style.

Some people are flexible, and use a variety of techniques.

[mushin]

Some people find a game and adapt their style (burn vs milk) to match.

Some people pick a style, and then find games that suit that style.

Some people are flexible, and use a variety of techniques.

I feel that adaptability to any situation is key. Consider this.... one time your slash away with massive bets. Then the next time you opposition bet with lots of cover. Then on yet another visit you do something different or mix things up. Mind you I don't mean that you would go into the session with any one of these methods predetermined but rather you use what ever method you think will work best. It is about putting yourself in the best possible position to be able to ply your trade. If the situation changes while you are there you adapt/change. It never hurts to keep people guessing.

[Dieter]

It never hurts to keep people guessing.

The people who adopt the slash and burn strategy are optimizing for earnings per hour. They are expecting that there will be a finite number of hours, and the goal is to make the most of them. This strategy makes sense when you don't intend to return - there is minimal advantage* to earning less than maximally if you're playing to get backed off.

It's worth more, to some people, to burn one game for $10k over a few hours, than it is to milk it for $5k for a few more hours.

If you've got one shot, get all you can out of it.

If you've got a lot of shots, get what you can out of each one without destroying the chance for the next shot?.



*There might be a minor advantage in that the flyer they send out about you might not list you as a particular threat to some people who read the flyer, but once you're flyered, that's already a disadvantage for most people.

[mushin]

The people who adopt the slash and burn strategy are optimizing for earnings per hour. They are expecting that there will be a finite number of hours, and the goal is to make the most of them. This strategy makes sense when you don't intend to return - there is minimal advantage* to earning less than maximally if you're playing to get backed off.

It's worth more, to some people, to burn one game for $10k over a few hours, than it is to milk it for $5k for a few more hours.

If you've got one shot, get all you can out of it.

If you've got a lot of shots, get what you can out of each one without destroying the chance for the next shot?.



*There might be a minor advantage in that the flyer they send out about you might not list you as a particular threat to some people who read the flyer, but once you're flyered, that's already a disadvantage for most people.

I agree with all that your saying. I do think bankroll has something to do with things. I would rather fire away and run the risk of burning out a place when I have a 70k bank as opposed to a 10k bank. At the higher bank I would get more bang for the buck. But again here comes the adaptability needed. If you get flyered.... well now you may have to adapt the slash and burn tactic just to get a game in.

[Masterhoudini]

I'm just concerned that they miggt make a procedural change to nullify my edge

I would think if you're holecarding, tracking, sequencing or another advanced strategy, and you believe they'll make a change, then camp camp camp before they do!! If you are counting, then you should evaluate how valuable this store is to you. Is it your home location? Will they change the rules to make game worse? If you feel as though they're going to make it worse for you, regardless of whether you take a break, then blast away before they do. If you feel as though taking a break could help make things better, then do so. It all depends- remember it's all about maximizing value though- don't have regrets that you took a break, the game turned to garbage regardless, and you didn't get anything out of it! It's happened to me before and it's the worst feeling ever.

Also you should figure out how aggressive your store is with data basing and filtering, as this may factor into your decision.