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Thread: Marcus CBS

  1. #1
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    Marcus CBS

    ..
    Last edited by Wave; 02-28-2019 at 11:49 PM. Reason: Typo

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    Crap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    Just wondering if anyone has used Marcus Counter Basic Strategy and what their thoughts were regarding any potential cover it may or may not have provided. If it does provide effective cover, is it worth the expense (about 20% of hourly win rate versus REKO 6D Full indexes, H17, DAS, 1:20 spread, frontcounting, 75% pen., per my CV sims). This seems expensive to me and would have to produce great cover to justify the expense in my opinion. Any thoughts welcome.
    That is a poor use of CBS. CBS is the best basic strategy for your count. This makes the most important indices change. Some are only important because ploppy BS gets it so wrong. The deviation may be worthless if you use CBS and wong away from negative counts.

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    Hi, Wave

    CBS is a good way for a novice to get started playing for real quicker than learning the strategy deviations before playing. As the new player gets more experience, he will see that he can start adding the more-obvious and most-helpful deviations from the Ill18. If you do it this way, you can decide whether using a certain deviation is wise or not at the moment, depending on your perception of heat. It's kind of like whether you split 10's or not; many people don't do it even though it's called for at times because of heat.

    Assuming your 'act' is good, I think your spread is the most obvious give away and there's not a lot I'm aware of that can be done about that. Switching between 1 and 2 (or even 3) hands is a bit obvious, too. After that, insurance can be an issue for heat but I haven't gotten any guff on that for years...

    See Table 5.1 on p.62 of BJA3 for a table of how much value each of the Ill18 deviations provide. The top 3 offer almost 60% of the overall 18 with insurance as the greatest contribution (but it's really just a side bet so even a CBS player should typically take insurance at +3 or greater). So, if you just learn insurance and 2 deviations, you have the lion's share of the advantage. Over time, you can learn the rest of them and apply them as heat allows.

    Just my 2 cents worth...

    Best of luck to you!
    SiMi

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    " ... so I think it works for me."
    You are obviously a naive red-chipper.
    The Eye in the Sky has NO ability to hear you.
    Some of them 'work' at BJ full-time. You don't.
    You are seriously "Underrating the opposition."
    That is the prelude to "rule #1"
    "Wake up and smell the roses."
    .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    If it does provide effective cover, is it worth the expense (about 20% of hourly win rate versus REKO 6D Full indexes, H17, DAS, 1:20 spread, frontcounting, 75% pen., per my CV sims).
    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    I play the ploppy because it was not that long ago that I was one, I like to buy in for weird amounts, like $197, with small bills, and keep the chips in a messy pile.
    You must have plenty of "$197" buy-ins to keep that 1 to 20 spread going. Why are you using a spread like that when you are front counting "wonging in" anyway?

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    Wave,

    No disrespectful "swipe" taken. Not at all. I am a veteran full-time peripatetic Professional Gambler
    who has trained many of my nascent fellow travelers over the last 26 years; though I'm recently quasi-retired.
    Counter Basic Strategy is irrational at low stakes with a weak count like K.O. "Three" knows of what he speaks.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    BoSox.

    According to the sims I've run, that's what it takes to get about a $40 per hour win rate. I take it you would recommend a smaller spread and lower win rate. Is that due to ROR or other reason(s)?
    When you wong in, I hope you also wong out and change tables/pits once in a while, also sit out some hands. The less negative EV hands that you play, the less spread you will need to make up that EV difference for using smaller spreads.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    In your opinion, was Marcus right or wrong about CBS providing cover?
    Marcus was actually referring to good games with a VERY LOW House Edge.
    In such a game a conservative bet spread easily overcomes the House Edge.

    Not so, as a rule, including the game that you have referenced.
    Using an advanced count accurately, an excellent game needs a small spread.
    C B S basically plays important hand matchups AS IF the True Count is one (1)
    higher than reality. That is very costly with a weak count and a common BJ game.

    The COST of playing C B S is simply too high in the 21st Century.





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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    The $40 figure was based on a sim
    While simulations are our primary tool, I urge caution.
    Can you play without error? Is your counting perfect?
    I suggest that you accept a "fudge factor" of 10 - 15%


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    Hi, Wave

    If you're concerned about longevity, you might enjoy reading Ian Andersen's books. In particular, "Burning the Tables in Las Vegas" was a very good read if you haven't already tried that one.

    Best,
    SiMi

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    Caveat: The book is seriously dated.
    It harkens back to the golden era of BJ when you could
    bribe Pit Bosses and surveillance was a joke and SD with
    an advantage off the top was to be found, and as long as
    you toked properly you could earn a reasonable living at BJ.

    Of greater interest is I. A.'s first book. Naturally I have hard copies of both.

    Who wants to be the first player to identify that dreadful piece of crapola?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Who wants to be the first player to identify that dreadful piece of crapola?
    Turning the Tables on Las Vegas (1976)

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