How Much of a Differnce Between Your Best Day and Worst Day This Year

[Midwest Player]

Variance is just part of the game with blackjack. If we can reduce variance I think that is good, but it usually comes at the expense of expected value. I believe "Three" has posted he has found a way to reduce variance. I imagine others have also managed to reduce variance. So I was wondering how much of a difference is there between your best day and worst day this year. For example if the biggest one day win you had this year was $1,000 and the biggest one day loss was $900 then that is a $1,900 swing. I assume the higher stakes you are playing the larger this swing will be.

Anyway, the difference between my largest one day win and largest one day loss so far this year is $2,145, which is the difference between a four figure win and a three figure loss. My second largest one day swing is $1,641. This is mostly at the red chip level. Win rate this year per average 6 hour session is 83%.

Anyone else willing to share their swings this year? Include if your playing level is red chip, green chip, or black chip.

[ummagumma]

Mine is around £5500 or $7000. As luck would have it, the one day I tried something which had a theoretical much higher EV (Ace-tracking) and in fact went well as far as hitting Aces, I got shit with them. I lost $5000 in an hour. I'm normally a red-chip player but on this occasion played black spread over three boxes when anticipating an Ace. A pain in the butt of an evening. I got $4000 back over the next few days before they asked me to leave....

EDIT: I should have added my best day was a win around £1500 (around $1900) and worst loss £4000 (around $5000)

[Three]

I believe "Three" has posted he has found a way to reduce variance.

Not really reduce variance much but increase the ratio of positive variance to negative variance. Variance doesn't actually change much.

Anyone else willing to share their swings this year? Include if your playing level is red chip, green chip, or black chip.

What happens is you get more frequent wins and less frequent losses. The magnitude of both go down. The net result is you don't have many significant losses and your significant wins aren't as big in general. You go from relying on big wins to get you ahead to generally winning with some big wins mixed in with the rare but consistent not quite as big loss to lower you to expectation spread out over time. Your BR grows faster and with much more certainty.

This year my biggest win is over $6K and my biggest loss is under $4K. Both are extreme outliers. More consistent extremes are $2k to $3.5 K wins and $1K to $1.5K losses. Most losses are $500 or less. I win about 80% of the days I play. Wins may be small but are generally from $500 to $1300 for 2 to 5 hours of play. That is the bulk of the days results are in the latter two categories. Sometimes I end up where I can put in a longer day without going over the casino win threshold for heat. Then I may win more because I can casino hop. Only one 5 figure day this year.

[hitthat16]

Biggest 24 hour loss 5K with biggest 24 hour win 5.7K.

10.7K swing

[Stealth]

Variance is just part of the game with blackjack. If we can reduce variance I think that is good, but it usually comes at the expense of expected value. I believe "Three" has posted he has found a way to reduce variance. I imagine others have also managed to reduce variance. So I was wondering how much of a difference is there between your best day and worst day this year. For example if the biggest one day win you had this year was $1,000 and the biggest one day loss was $900 then that is a $1,900 swing. I assume the higher stakes you are playing the larger this swing will be.

Anyway, the difference between my largest one day win and largest one day loss so far this year is $2,145, which is the difference between a four figure win and a three figure loss. My second largest one day swing is $1,641. This is mostly at the red chip level. Win rate this year per average 6 hour session is 83%.

Anyone else willing to share their swings this year? Include if your playing level is red chip, green chip, or black chip.

MW, what is this? You show me yours and I'll show you mine? What value is there in you knowing what my (or anyones) swings are? Are you sublty asking for some opinion on the veracity of your results? If so, much more data is required.

Your stated win rate for average 6 hour sessions is 83%? How do you define a session because I am really suspect of any AP who can play 6 hour sessions and win 83% of the time and not get 86'd? Is that enough sessions to have any statistical significance?

If it is merely a social exchange of experiences, then I apologize for my over reaction and in that case my range is a few thousand both ways. If I have misunderstood, then please rephrase the question.

Don't mean to be a contrarian it is just that statistics are valuable at defining questions but not so effective at providing answers. I primarily use playing statistics to validate the efficacy of the players game and the session Z-score is the trigger for more in depth analysis which may include a discussion of the specifics of the session with the player.

Otherwise, in the 7,000+ sessions that I have detailed records for (not all my play), the average win was always very close to the average loss but we won 65% of the sessions. A session was any time you played at a table and until you left that table.

I would add that my priority is to devise games with adequate EV and exceptional cover which often, but not always, dictates increased variance.

[Jabberwocky]

Biggest single win was $20k at DD and hit Lucky Ladies. Biggest single loss was one quarter that amount. I am a green chipper.

[Midwest Player]

Your stated win rate for average 6 hour sessions is 83%? How do you define a session because I am really suspect of any AP who can play 6 hour sessions and win 83% of the time and not get 86'd? Is that enough sessions to have any statistical significance?

First of all, let me say this year is not over yet and a couple of losses would bring this win rate way down. I also have never had a win rate this high in my life before, but dollar wise I had better years. If I quit right now for the year, this would only be my 4th best year.

I have mentioned many times before I consider a session for me to be one day of play. During my day, I my take a couple of breaks and take a hour off to eat. I may even switch tables and play some 6 deck blackjack during my session depending on conditions. At peak crowded times I may also take a break. Only at the end of the day do I tally up my results.

Did I mention I play at the red chip level? Most of the time, I don't have huge wins or losses and almost always my average loss is larger than my average win. This year my average loss is $19 more than my average win. Some casinos don't see a red chipper as much of a threat and let you play.

I have posted my session win/loss record before, but I will post it again going back to 1990. Those early years of play were mostly losing years even though session win was above 50%.
53%
54%
55%
66%
61%
76%
56%
61%
55%
71%
66%
71%
71%
70%
56%
63%
60%
52%
70%
64%
66%
73%
65%
62%
71%
63%
61%
77%
83%
------
64.60% Average
====

[angle_sh00ter]

My biggest ever session win was just under 70k but it was an 18 hour session (all at the same table) which spanned throughout 2 years.

Zero actual heat although someone very high up in caesars management sat down and started playing alongside me and was trying to distract me with conversation, drinks and of course a bevvy of other things.

He was ordering around the dealers, pit bosses and shift managers like they were nothing. It was quite hilarious.

[Bubbles]

Biggest winning day of 2018, 270 max bets. Biggest losing day -40 max bets. I think. I don't track by day, just week and session, so I'm going off of memory. Biggest week +104 max bets, biggest losing week -22 max bets.

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[Midwest Player]

Biggest winning day of 2018, 270 max bets. Biggest losing day -40 max bets. I think. I don't track by day, just week and session, so I'm going off of memory. Biggest week +104 max bets, biggest losing week -22 max bets.

270 max bets is very impressive. If your max bet is $100 that is $27,000 and if $200 its $54,000. How did you manage to have such a great day?

[ZeeBabar]

I don't like huge losses, risk my longevity with huge single session (my session is my single time at table, means several sessions each day) wins. So, I have loss limits and win limits. No more than $2k loss, No more than $2k win at single session.

Similarly, if after several sessions in a day, I have lost $3.5k, I quit for the day. If I win $3.5k that day, I preserve it by doing something relaxing (ball games, movie,etc.) For the rest of the day.

My biggest single day loss is $3.3k, my biggest win is $2.8k.

[angle_sh00ter]

If I win $3.5k that day, I preserve it by doing something relaxing (ball games, movie,etc.)

And then...

my biggest win is $2.8k

[Midwest Player]

Don't try to belittle others work, intellectual property is priceless, if you are not afford to pay for it, please keep your mouth shut up and don't try to complain too much !

Don't hijack someone else's thread to bitch at somebody. Didn't Norm lock one thread already on you. Damn, start your own thread.