Interesting EV discussion

[YourReputationPreceedsYou]

Hello fellow card players - as my wife and I were practicing tonight we had some interesting conversation in relation to actual session results.

I had a session that finished significantly above EV. That in itself - is a great thing. To a lot of people, they'd not want to play the next session assuming a drop back to where you ought to be according to actual EV based on hours played, and to the seasoned player - we all know it's about logging hours and following that upward trend regardless of short term flux (up or down) - and the upward trend could keep going!

Here's the question (and believe me it seems WAY out there - but this is a question to provoke some thinking) - Is there any reason to, say - play awhile at home, under the same conditions you'd play for real money - to lose your positive flux on EV without losing actual money? Also, important to note - the session in question, involved a positive flux of 38 max bets in 45 minutes of play (yes there was a BO)... tonight during practice, I'm in for 20 max bets and down 18 of them. (OP Note: I personally don't care to win/lose at home, I play to put in the hours and understand the flux - in it for the long haul.)

[Reign Man]

You understand that you play to put in the hours and reach the long run, yet are mesmerized by the results of a short-term session. Blackjack is a game with a high amount of variance with roller coaster swings in money won / lost. Exposure to the positive flux & losing one max bet after another in short order will make you understand the importance of bankroll requirements. At least 100 max bets or 1000 units are very basic rules of thumb.

Keep practicing at home replicating casino conditions, that's how I & many others started.

Invest in Casino Verite software at http://qfit.com. CVBJ to practice & drill basic strategy. Having basic strategy down pat is a must as is keeping an accurate running count with a quick RC / TC conversion. CVCX to build a bet ramp based on your local casinos. CVData to fine tune strategies. Buy a book, there's one in the BJ Resources tab. Learn the playing deviations Illustrious 18 & Fab 4. Once you feel you have an advantage over the casino, then put in the hours to overcome the variance and get to the long run.

[Dog Hand]

Hello fellow card players - as my wife and I were practicing tonight we had some interesting conversation in relation to actual session results.

I had a session that finished significantly above EV. That in itself - is a great thing. To a lot of people, they'd not want to play the next session assuming a drop back to where you ought to be according to actual EV based on hours played, and to the seasoned player - we all know it's about logging hours and following that upward trend regardless of short term flux (up or down) - and the upward trend could keep going!

Here's the question (and believe me it seems WAY out there - but this is a question to provoke some thinking) - Is there any reason to, say - play awhile at home, under the same conditions you'd play for real money - to lose your positive flux on EV without losing actual money?<snip>

No.

Dog Hand

[cc12b]

No.

Does practice on software counted toward N0 and hours play?

[DSchles]

Let me get this straight: after winning big at the casino, you want your next "outing" to be at home on the computer, so you can get rid of the negative e.v. that's obviously bound to be coming your way, and once "rid" of this, you can now safely go back to a real casino and tell the pit boss that it's your turn again and they should just pay you?

Either you're trolling us, or you should not be playing anywhere for real money.

Don

[SiMi]

Hi, cc12b and YRPY,

I'm going to assume your questions are sincere and take a stab at this off the top of my head and see how it goes...

What is n0
n0 is a concept from statistics that uses "standard deviation" and "edge" to tell you how many rounds of a certain game of BJ you must play in order to have a 68% chance of being ahead (even 1 penny ahead is considered ahead for this purpose). It doesn't mean you WILL be ahead, just that you have, in theory, a 68% chance of being ahead at this point.

Statistics tells us that,with a given edge in a BJ game with a given betting ramp, after "n" rounds of play, you will have accumulated enough expected edge to shift the expected outcome to your advantage by 1 standard deviation (which represents about 68% of the outcomes).

It's theoretical and assumes perfect play, the same game, same bet ramp, same conditions, etc. for all rounds. It's just an analytical tool. It's not magic. It doesn't guarantee anything. It's useful to give you a sense of where you might be after n rounds of play and to allow you to compare different games that are offered to you.

So, when you ask if practice play "counts" toward n0, it's hard to answer because the question implies a lack of understanding of the concept of n0. The Real World is a lot different than practice rounds at home and it's not possible to play in real conditions in a way that comports with the strict conditions needed to calculate n0. So, it's a non sequitur (doesn't really make sense) to ask whether home rounds "count" toward n0.

Again, n0 is a technical term with a technical definition that gives you information about a given game that you will find useful for analytical purposes. And, that's about it.

LOSING FLUX
Your question about playing at home"to lose your flux on EV" is similar though not exactly the same as the n0 question. I think the main problem with this question is that it seems to misunderstand the "Law of Large Numbers"(LLN) and thus falls victim to the "Gambler's Fallacy."

The LLN tells us that repeated experiments with random outcomes will yield results that converge to the expected value over time. Dice is a good example. As you know,if you throw a fair die with six sides, there is a 1/6 chance that any given number will end up on top. Even though we all know from experience that it doesn't always happen that way every time, we also know that, the more times we throw the die, the more the overall results will reveal this 1/6 chance.

The LLN is a theoretical law that does not tell you anything about short term outcomes. The word "large" in the LLN is VERY VERY VERY VERY LARGE (as in infinitely large) and doesn't exist in any human experience. At any moment you could see a HUGE variance from the expected outcome as in, for example, throwing ten 7's in a row in a fair craps game is extremely unlikely. (1 in 60.5 million, if I did my math correctly.)

If that rarity happened, you might be tempted to think that the next craps roll will almost certainly NOT be a 7 - AND YOU WOULD BE WRONG! The next roll is just as likely to be a 7 as it was before this rare event (ten 7's in a row) occurred. This is the Gambler's Fallacy. The probability of the next throw coming up 7 in this scenario is exactly the same as it was for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th throws: 1/6. The dice have no memory and (if they aren't loaded) the odds of a 7 are the same each time you throw them (unless maybe you could control them somehow...)

BJ is like dice for this analysis. So, when you play practice rounds of BJ at home and hit a streak of bad outcomes (variance), you are NOT more likely to see it followed by a streak of good outcomes because the sample size is woefully inadequate. There is no way to know what the next 10 or 100 or 1,000 or even 10,000 rounds will look like even if you stayed at the exact same practice game. Rushing down to the local joint to capture the 'inevitable upswing' won't work because there is no way to know when/if/how the future rounds will come out better.

This is the "bad news" of AP BJ that, I suspect, some people don't truly understand: you have no guarantees of winning with card counting. It just theoretically tips the odds in your direction a little bit. The Casinos tend to make money over time and they, thus, corroborate the LLN because they are able to play millions and millions of rounds a year and make close to the expected profit.

I hope this is helpful to someone.

Best, SiMi

[Stealth]

Is there any reason to, say - play awhile at home, under the same conditions you'd play for real money - to lose your positive flux on EV without losing actual money? Also, important to note - the session in question, involved a positive flux of 38 max bets in 45 minutes of play (yes there was a BO)... tonight during practice, I'm in for 20 max bets and down 18 of them. (OP Note: I personally don't care to win/lose at home, I play to put in the hours and understand the flux - in it for the long haul.)

That is voodoo thinking! The guy in seat three stands with his 12 against the dealer 10 and screws up the flow! Also voodoo.

Flux is not some magical influence always looking to bring you back to the middle. It is a probability that is in play, both positive and negative, at all times. AND IT IS UNPREDICTABLE!

It is, as they say, "Past winnings (or losses) are not an indicaion of future results!". After many hours of play, you might look back on the results and you can determine the boundaries of flux on that past play but that answer has nothing to do with the flux for the next many hours of play.

Get an adequate bankroll, develop your skill, pick good games and stop trying to control what is, by clear definition, out of your control.

[YourReputationPreceedsYou]

Definitely not trolling- I understand the math of the game. I wanted to provoke some thinking. Interestingly enough I’ve played for 9 years- sessions that a majority wouldn’t believe. I’ve won 18 sessions in a row and I’ve lost 13 in a row. There’s no one size fits all approach to counting. This is the 3rd time I’ve ever bothered posting on a site such as this as the last time- I got berated to the point I realized I was wasting my time. Always been a lurker as getting out and putting in time as taken priority over posting.

[YourReputationPreceedsYou]

i understand it’s voodoo thinking^ as you can’t pick the day you’re going to win and lose. Ffs

[YourReputationPreceedsYou]

I always practice too- the practice keeps you in check- don’t care how many hours or sessions or money won/ lost you’ve had- I’ve never met a musician who doesn’t practice before a show. Same applies to counting.

[YourReputationPreceedsYou]

In short, I got the replies I assumed I would get. Thanks all- PS thanks Don for the index plays.

[cc12b]

Thanks all, obviously I am not AP by any mean, just a counting learner as you can see in my posts. I understand the wongout rounds, the rounds you bet $0, at the table count toward to N0 and hours of play so my question about software practice comes up. Software is created to similar real casino conditions, as such, next round or next hours/days can be either ways of variation.

[YourReputationPreceedsYou]

Have played some insane sessions, definitely not AP either. Beating the riverside for 18k at 6am on their SD without getting shuffled up on, besting Biloxi for 28k with one tapout at the end (cuts your trip off completely)- definitely not an AP. Beating hard rock Tampa and working the dealer for a deeper cut on their 2D pitch in high limits, convincing pit to raise min to $500 to keep ploppies off, beating them for 57k without boot until I got home- definitely not an AP.