BettingStrategy

[CaptainJack]

Hi I am a beginner advantage player,

I have gotten very good at keeping the count and I am playing at a 7% risk of ruin ($375 at $15 minimum). I am using qfit data and calculators and I am trying to establish a betting strategy, I suspect that I am underbetting. I calculated my ev as $115 an hour but only at $25 an hour and been on a losing streak. I calculated my ev as 75.19% probability of reaching 39 units on 29 betting units using qfit calculator. (.7519 x 10 unit gain, expected return of 8 units) I have only played roughly 25 hours. I am using the hi lo method of counting and I am trying to learn how to calculate the house edge and edge with given true counts. I only know of the method of using the decks remaining to the closest half deck. I have up to a potential $2500 bankroll, but have just been using $375 as a way to gain experience and play perfectly live. I would like to protect that other bankroll but I would like to use it to make money as well. Thank you for any suggestions, criticism, and feedback!
Thank you,
Captain Jack

[Tetn1s]

Buy CVCX and all your problems are solved.

btw, $375 bankroll for $15 min is nowhere near 7% RoR, probably around 98~99% is my guess. CVCX will tell you the answer.

good rule of thumb for an okay RoR (like 6.5%) is 100 max bets. At $15 min with a 1:8 spread, max bet is $120. So you need $12,000 at least

25 hours is not enough time to determine your actual EV, I’m probably guessing 150-200 hours is what you should aim for.

[CaptainJack]

Ok, I calculated ror off minimum bet (hind sight not very smart). I bought the verite version, definitely going to get simulator and research now. Thanks!

[stopgambling]

good rule of thumb for an okay RoR (like half kelly, 6.5%) is 100 max bets

THat is not 1/2 kelly. It is around 2% .

[Meistro123]

Get a job and save up some real money.

[ummagumma]

Get a job and save up some real money.

Pretty dumb answer really. With a BR of $2500 you can play without an issue if you find smaller games. Start small to get used to the game and how to handle the conditions. And as has been suggested CVCX really is a must and will help with all your questions.

[ZeeBabar]

Pretty dumb answer really. With a BR of $2500 you can play without an issue if you find smaller games. Start small to get used to the game and how to handle the conditions. And as has been suggested CVCX really is a must and will help with all your questions.

I wish I knew of more valuable ways to use CVCX. I just use it for finding optimal ramps and they are so steep, cant seem to implement them.

[CaptainJack]

That’s my bankroll rn but beginning I did not want to lose more than that 375. I never scaled my bet over 50. The only tables I can find without csm are 15 dollar tables

[21forme]

Just so everyone's aware, the above poster is not the "real" Captain Jack, the long-time, well-respected and very knowledgeable AP.

To the above poster - since you've only made 3 posts, I suggest you start over with a new handle to avoid confusion and perhaps even animosity from experienced players.

[CaptainJack]

I wasn’t aware there was a previous captain jack! Thank you for the heads up!

[DSchles]

THat is not 1/2 kelly. It is around 2% .

Right. Actually 1.83%. ROR is an exponential, not linear, function. To calculate ROR for half Kelly, where full Kelly without resizing is 13.53%, you need to square the latter value. So, 0.1353^2 = 0.0183 = 1.83%.

Don

[refinery]

Right. Actually 1.83%. ROR is an exponential, not linear, function. To calculate ROR for half Kelly, where full Kelly without resizing is 13.53%, you need to square the latter value. So, 0.1353^2 = 0.0183 = 1.83%.

Don

This is very basic but it did take me a second, so I thought I'd post it and maybe help someone:

When you square any number the value becomes bigger. When you square a decimal number it becomes smaller because while squaring the numerator you are squaring the denominator as well, hence the value becomes smaller.